Find out how John Ryan decides which games hold the mast value for MLB bettors, and how he plans to cash in the most off of his picks. From finding the hidden dogs, to knowing how much to lay, let us waly you through setting up your MLB parlay bets today.
There is doubt in my mind or my
18-years of sports handicapping experience that the single most important fact
about making money in MLB wagering is to be able to identify dogs that can win
near 50% of the time over the course of a season. There is just no way round
this fact and the single largest and costliest mistake made by amateurs is that
they will focus on the marquee team names that are favorites of -170 and
Let’s examine three plays where a baseball bettor focuses on those favorites and makes three sports picks averaging -170. If the
bettor goes 2-1 they will make a paltry profit of 0.30 units per one unit
wagered. It is not the small profit that is the problem, it is the significant
risk associated with making just 0.30 units per one unit wagered.
misfortune hit our bettor and he lost all three wagers, the lost would have
climbed to 5.10 units per one unit wagered. That translates into the fact that
the bettor risked losing 5.10 units per one unit wagered with only two
favorable outcomes possible is the sole reason that consistently betting on
these types of favorites catch up to even the hottest of amateur sports bettors and
creates steep losses.
In our example, the average dog
play would be in the neighborhood of +160. The maximum risk of loss is 3.00
units per one unit wagered. A 1-2 results in the games played translates into a
modest loss of 0.40 units per one unit wagered and if good fortune and hard
solid analysis are rewarded the dog player can reap a 4.80 gain per one unit
wagered. Now, the next step, is taking the opportunity to apply these three
dogs into a three-team round robin parlay. This where hitting only 15% winners
can still translate into a huge gain.
For Friday's matchup card, my simulator
projects three dogs that have solid opportunities to get upset wins and are
worth to place into a three-team round robin parlay. Each play will be wagered
as a 5* unit wager and then my recommendation is to combine all three teams
into a three-team round robin parlay not to exceed a 3* amount of risk per
The THREE DOGS for the Friday
These dogs, not ranked in any
particular order, are the Kansas City Royals, the San Diego Padres, and the
Oakland A’s. So, I am recommending a 5* amount wagered on each of these teams
with the current MLB odds showing the A’s as a +165 dog playing at Tampa Bay, the
Padres installed as +165 dogs playing at Arizona, and the Royals installed as
+163 playing at Boston. I want to note that it is only coincidental that all of the MLB odds are nearly identical. I do use a cutoff of +140 so that in order to
have a maximum risk-reward profile, the dogs have to be a minimum of +140.
Using the Parlay Calculator at SBR the following profiles are established
for this three-team round robin. I am also going to suggest adding a 1.5*
amount making one three parlay with all of the aforementioned dogs.
The first parlay combining +165
Oakland and +165 San Diego and wagering 300 widgets would produce a net gain of
1,810 widgets if both teams win. The next parlay combines San Diego with the
Royals and returns 1,790 widgets, and since the lines are the same, the parlay
for the Royals and the A’s returns the same 1,790 widgets. So, if two of the
three teams hit Friday night we can expect a significant gain. Of course, if
all three teams hit, which is quite rare, then the payday is windfall, but
under a strict and disciplined betting methodology.
The three-team parlay made with 1.5* amount
would return 2,620 widgets for a 150 widget wager. Not bad, looking at the
possibilities, but remember always, that all four of these parlays can lose and
create a 1,375 widget loss based on three 300 widget parlays paying 20% vig and
one 1.5* three team parlay. Over time though, I assure you that when we do
these types of parlays, as they are applied in all sports, there is a
tremendous opportunity to augment profits.