Find out how John Ryan decides which games hold the mast value for MLB bettors, and how he plans to cash in the most off of his picks. From finding the hidden dogs, to knowing how much to lay, let us waly you through setting up your MLB parlay bets today.

There is doubt in my mind or my 18-years of sports handicapping experience that the single most important fact about making money in MLB wagering is to be able to identify dogs that can win near 50% of the time over the course of a season. There is just no way round this fact and the single largest and costliest mistake made by amateurs is that they will focus on the marquee team names that are favorites of -170 and higher.

MLB BettingLet’s examine three plays where a baseball bettor focuses on those favorites and makes three sports picks averaging -170. If the bettor goes 2-1 they will make a paltry profit of 0.30 units per one unit wagered. It is not the small profit that is the problem, it is the significant risk associated with making just 0.30 units per one unit wagered.

Had misfortune hit our bettor and he lost all three wagers, the lost would have climbed to 5.10 units per one unit wagered. That translates into the fact that the bettor risked losing 5.10 units per one unit wagered with only two favorable outcomes possible is the sole reason that consistently betting on these types of favorites catch up to even the hottest of amateur sports bettors and creates steep losses

In our example, the average dog play would be in the neighborhood of +160. The maximum risk of loss is 3.00 units per one unit wagered. A 1-2 results in the games played translates into a modest loss of 0.40 units per one unit wagered and if good fortune and hard solid analysis are rewarded the dog player can reap a 4.80 gain per one unit wagered. Now, the next step, is taking the opportunity to apply these three dogs into a three-team round robin parlay. This where hitting only 15% winners can still translate into a huge gain. 

For Friday's matchup card, my simulator projects three dogs that have solid opportunities to get upset wins and are worth to place into a three-team round robin parlay. Each play will be wagered as a 5* unit wager and then my recommendation is to combine all three teams into a three-team round robin parlay not to exceed a 3* amount of risk per parlay wagered. 

The THREE DOGS for the Friday Parlay

These dogs, not ranked in any particular order, are the Kansas City Royals, the San Diego Padres, and the Oakland A’s. So, I am recommending a 5* amount wagered on each of these teams with the current MLB odds showing the A’s as a +165 dog playing at Tampa Bay, the Padres installed as +165 dogs playing at Arizona, and the Royals installed as +163 playing at Boston. I want to note that it is only coincidental that all of the MLB odds are nearly identical. I do use a cutoff of +140 so that in order to have a maximum risk-reward profile, the dogs have to be a minimum of +140. 

Using the Parlay Calculator at SBR the following profiles are established for this three-team round robin. I am also going to suggest adding a 1.5* amount making one three parlay with all of the aforementioned dogs. 

The first parlay combining +165 Oakland and +165 San Diego and wagering 300 widgets would produce a net gain of 1,810 widgets if both teams win. The next parlay combines San Diego with the Royals and returns 1,790 widgets, and since the lines are the same, the parlay for the Royals and the A’s returns the same 1,790 widgets. So, if two of the three teams hit Friday night we can expect a significant gain. Of course, if all three teams hit, which is quite rare, then the payday is windfall, but under a strict and disciplined betting methodology.

The three-team parlay made with 1.5* amount would return 2,620 widgets for a 150 widget wager. Not bad, looking at the possibilities, but remember always, that all four of these parlays can lose and create a 1,375 widget loss based on three 300 widget parlays paying 20% vig and one 1.5* three team parlay. Over time though, I assure you that when we do these types of parlays, as they are applied in all sports, there is a tremendous opportunity to augment profits.