[frugalgambler]

Well, here comes my favorite Slam, not that I am confident in my darts or anything. But let's see how it goes, GL folks.

The draw looks pretty interesting. Not sure if Serena is gonna make it to the final, with the quarter loaded and all, and Sharapova is out. And that means a first time RG winner is quite a probability. Looking at the futures, I cannot say I like anything that much. Just a small 0.5u dart on Begu to win her quarter at +1200. Let's hope her knee holds up.

As for Day 1 leans, for 0.5u each

Kvitova -1.5 sets @-134 & Pliskova o20: just tailing MGT here. Liked his write-ups.

Lisicki -1.5 sets @+130. Yeah she does not really like clay and she is going against a clay-courter. Still, this is a top-20 caliber player going against an ITF player. Lisiciki seems to do OK in first rounds at RG.

Schmiedlova +7. I think this is too much respect for Muggz, whose shape is still not proven.

GL folks. Any input would be appreciated.

[Don West]

Looked at Cepede results, I guess it's possible but I wouldn't do it. Kvitova was one of my leans but I don't know if I played it. Begu -1.5 is around the same price and I like her chances at 2:0 a bit more.

[Don West]

Also, in my thread you'll see that I am emphasizing Watson over Gibbs. Gibbs is a great representative of the NCAA ranks but let's be honest here. Watson has unlimited potentially and I feel pretty strongly about this line as a great steal of the first round. I'm recommended Watson here, with a strong feeling that she will bury her. This looks like a great opportunity to buy low and sell high.

[Don West]

I'm also going to be "buying low" with Bouchard tomorrow. I think being back with Saviano is going to bring back the results. She's still really young. It's important and it's a great angle for tomorrow.

[FoxMulder]

Word of advice: Never ever not under any circumstances go with Kvitova -1.5 sets. Stupid bitch almost lost to Kovinic. She almost always drops a set to the players you least expect.

[Snowball]

forecast is wet and humid
for much of the week
there will be opps for the "creative" players
like Radwanska, Niculescu, etc over the flat stroke pounders.
athleticism of a player like Kerber or Woz could shine too

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, Kvitova will be Kvitova. Should not have tailed, but hindsight 20/20. I think Petra's matches went to three sets three out of four times last year. Rain delay, maybe just as well.

[Don West]

Kvitova was up a set and 3-0, 40-15*
Hard to say you shouldn't have tailed. Would've been much better result if she blew the match.

[frugalgambler]

Petra is notorious for dropping a set to subpar players, did not follow the scoreline in that match. That makes it even funnier.

[Don West]

She might go a little further now with an early hiccup. We'll have to see her opponent for R2 first

[frugalgambler]

Her quarter is pretty weak, I would not be surprised to see Kvitova in the semis; but she might go like 0-5 ATS while getting there.

[frugalgambler]

Well, looking at the matches tomorrow, I cannot say I like too much, and maybe it's good.

Sorana o21.5: Sorana still had to play qualies and she is clearly motivated to improve her rankings here. Svitolina is also trying to get over her sophomore hump. I think it will be a tight one.

Vesnina -3.5: just taking a more experienced, in-form player. My main concern is that the slow conditions might be detrimental to her aggressive style. Both leans for 0.5u.

Also, I am gonna drop 2u on Serena's futures at +215. Let's see how it goes. GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

3-2 so far with Sorana pending. Backing Lisicki and Kvitova on clay was not a good idea, but this is still a better start than I expected, about +0.3u on the thread. I'll probably continue tonight.

[fitguy67]

hey, FG...you just put 2u on Serena future

let's get a single data-point for the hypothesis that a chain of ML-bets (that are, in fact, extremely hard to psychologically " "stomach" in practice--see today's bet) pay better...especially when you factor the zero cost of "hedging" out in late stages by simply stopping, versus the considerable gymnastics/anguish involved in holding an outright

i just hit Serena -5000 over Rybarikova: -2u/+0.04u (see what i mean about "easier said than done")...

(yesterday, before i had any idea i'd start this little curiosity-satisfying project
i hit Rybarikova +2173: -0.3314u/+7.2u so I'm well covered with r1 disaster insurance, at least)

as long as Serena keeps winning, i'll keep manually-snowballing (risking $204 in r2 etc...)...the interesting part will come around SF time, when you'll have the real-world urge to captitalize on her previous string of victories (which I'll already have as $ in my ac) by hedging out...if you do, i'll merely "stand pat" by stopping the snowball where it lay...and in the end we'll compare $ gained lost by backing TinaTurner in the ways we did...

nothing to do on my end except keep backing her until
the tourney's over for her (one way or another), or
you hedge out (if you pull a fancy "partial" rather than a "full green", i may have to pull out some $ to emulate what you've worst-case locked in, and continue into the next match with reduced stakes in order to best emulate how you're managing your outright position...irt will be interesting to figure out how to cross that bridge if we come to it)

anyhow, this is entirely a curiosity-driven attempt to put the mantra to the test, the one that says "outrights < ML-snowball" as a way of punting on a strong-tourney by a player...i've always suspected that actually doing the latter is "easier said than done" (especially at the beginning)...so i've decided to do give it a whirl

let me know if you want to play the other side of the comparison...in which case i'll report on my snowball's progress...if not, the late gilda radner said it best

[frugalgambler]

figuy, wow that is a long and rambling post. If I understand correctly, you want to compare the gain by parlaying the MLs vs just taking the futures. I suspect it will be close in this case, perhaps parlaying MLs will be a bit more profitable. But psychologically, it feels better to bet on a +line. You can also do the math for previous tourneys, I think the lines should be available.

Anyway, I do not care that much. I might indeed hedge around SF if it ever comes to that, and Serena will be facing an in-form player, like Kerber going ~4-1 ATS en route to semis. Aza can be dangerous too.

[fitguy67]

just keep your -2u/+4.3u on the thread's ledger until it either settles itself or you decide to hedge it in some way...

if you do hedge, i'll manually emulate the amount you've worst-case "locked in" by reducing the next bet in the series (prob. at SF or F) accordingly...

will be interesting to me, to see how easy it is to actually maintain the manual-rollover discipline, particular in the early stages where the first few turns of the snowball SEEM so pointless $-wise (when in fact they lay the absolutely-crucial foundation for a crack at achieving the superior profitability that the "sharp-guy's truism" glibly refers to)

[BlakeMile01]

fitguy, wouldn't it make more sense to build a 4 or 5 leg open parlay and just add her to every leg as the event progresses?

[fitguy67]

why limit your price-shopping options at each and every stage?

you want to lock yourself into the prices available at one book, be my guest...but I have never seen the point in people voluntarily locking themselves into a set # of stages and the prices available at one book

see post#21 and beyond here
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-missions.html
for a deeper/broader look at "roll your own" multi-stage betting vs the "off the shelf" open-parlay alternative

[frugalgambler]

Good point fitguy. My theory is that if Serena rolls early on and/or if Aza/Kerber look bleak, it would be more profitable to take her futures outright. And in any case, I just liked that number. Now, moving on from that discussion, I have a little more time on my hands today so I have already capped the matches tomorrow, and I want to lean on the lines early b/c the prices might move.

Genie o21 for 1u. Genie is a dog but lately she has been losing usually in three sets. Let's hope Seigmund lives up to her recent achievements and does not fall apart either.

Kasatkina o21 for 1u. Kasatkina is good on clay and she is probably a future top-20, if not top-10 player, but Friedsam has almost as much potential. I think it will be a battle. Also, I do not think Kasatkina is experienced enough to really dominate here.

CSN o19.5 for 0.5u. Hoping for the young newcomer to keep it close, she did come through the qualies and I think this is another player with a bright future.

Let's see how it goes. GL folks.

[fitguy67]

good point you just mentioned (and Lightning as well a few days ago)...that these outright-prices largely assume the obvious paths to the Final, which means facing the best/favored player at pretty-well every stage...so if one or a few of the toughies in their quarter get upset early, and your player starts out well, the outright odds you locked in pre-tourney will appreciate considerably RELATIVE TO the iterative ML-path which will now sport considerably lower payouts than what was implied in the pre-tourney price...
_________

as for tomorrow's plays..."buy low" logic has me actually backing Genie tomorrow...i got her at +114 a few days ago, just in case the "her goose is cooked" wagon gave way to the realization that slams-Genie is a different animal...apparently not...she's softened even more to +139 as i type...so i plug my nostrils and add another half to make it a full play...i actually hope some maturity has been forged out of her slide and she starts to gain some traction...especially in the changing-room, lol

[frugalgambler]

Well, that is an interesting line movement. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow there. Siegmund is having a break-through year, at the age of 28 too, which is like 33 for dudes; but she is still almost a rookie at GSs. On the other hand, Bouchard is about as reliable as a retarded monkey with a machine gun.

At least the CSN total moved to 20, so I feel good taking it early.

[Lightning]

Yeah it's an interesting concept. If, for example, Djokovic gets beaten early, I wonder whether they'd install Nadal at Djokovic's price (around $1.90), or bring guys like Wawrinka and Murray in to $3 and $4. Wawrinka started at $12, but I get the feeling that if the above did happen, he wouldn't go higher than $8 or $9, simply because of Nadal's record. It'd be guys like Thiem and Tsonga that would suddenly rocket in price as their chances of getting out of the quarters suddenly increase.

[frugalgambler]

Bah, 2-2 today. Still +0.1u on the thread. Siegmund was probably a fav in a high-profile GS match for the first time in her career, and given her age, probably for the last time too. She clearly could not handle the pressure. Congrats to Genie backers. A bit more disappointed in Sorana, but oh well. A break-even day, I'll take it any time.

Otherwise, some surprising results today with Kerber and Aza bowing out. Serena's half suddenly got a lot less difficult. But she still got some dangerous players out there, especially Keys and maybe Ana and Bertens. Watched a bit of Kerber vs Bertens: Kerber did not look like she wanted to be there and Bertens played at a solid top-20, if not top-10 level, like she has been doing in the FedCup. Aza got injured, too bad for her. Anyways, I'll probably continue posting later tonight. It will be interesting what happens to Serena's futures tonight. My guess they would be posted at around +160.

[frugalgambler]

Hah, I was spot on. 5d has Serena at +160 right now. Had it been higher, I probably would've added a bit more on that, but at this price it just does not seem worth it, but still so tempting.

[frugalgambler]

Well, I cannot say I like much on the menu tomorrow. So I am gonna add 1.5u on Serena @+160. Yeah, the price is lower but I do not see who can threaten her in her quarter and then in the semis, if she makes it there, she'll be at least -350. And then maybe, just maybe, -250 in the final. If she goes down in flames to somebody like Mladenovic so be it, but I am willing to back her.

As for the leans tomorrow, just some small darts at 0.5u.

Kuzzy -4. Kuzzy loves RG. Yeah she has been not reliable over the last 4-5 years, but I think she can take care of Watson. Her draw looks nice: she can make at least the semis so I hope she will be fully focused tomorrow. She does not have a lot of Slams left.

Makarova -3.5. Not her best surface, but again she should be able to take care of Yanina.

Agga o21.5. Garcia plays her tough and she is at home, so I am hoping for a tight match, oh and Agga is not that great on clay.

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

Gonna add Vesnina -4.5 for 0.5u. Rogers produced a big upset in R1 and Vesnina is in-form right now. Let's go with experience here.

[frugalgambler]

Meh, 1-3 today, with -1u on the thread. Too much wishful thinking on my part, especially on Garcia over and Vesnina -4.5 pick. A bit disappointed in Makarova, but oh well.

Anyways, I am gonna keep on keeping on. Just a couple of small darts for 0.5u each.

Goerges -130. She is 0-3 against Puig, yet her odds are rising. I think the difference in current form between these players could be too much for Puig to overcome.

Razzano o20. Hoping for the French veteran to make it interesting against the talented rookie.

Sevastova -1.5 (GL). Knapp prevailed over a one-legged Aza. Great, but in general she has not been impressive. I also like the angle of fading a player after a big upset win.

GL folks. Any input would be appreciated as usual.

[frugalgambler]

1-2 today. -1.7u on the thread. I gotta stop backing unproven players, like Sevastova today. WTA never ceases to amaze me: last week Puig was crying b/c of injury, this week she is winning marathon matches against in-form players. Anyways, unfortunately I do not have much time to follow RG so my darts are all crooked.

Just a small parlay:

Begu o21 & Kuzzy -4 0.5u to win 1.1u. Begu seems to be back to playing three-setters. I would not be surprised to see her lose tomorrow to Beck, a pretty capable player. Kuzzy knows Pav very well, and she knows how to play her too, and this is clay not hard.

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

1-0 today, woo-hoo; still -0.6u on the thread. Some interesting matches tomorrow, but I am not feeling that confident in my darts so another small parlay

Kiki -3 & Cibu +3.5 0.5u to win 1.2u. Kiki has been pretty great so far this clay-court season and although Kasatkina is a pretty formidable youngster, I think her experience will prevail. Cibu is in a decent shape too and I think she will not fold against CSN.

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

Bah, 0-1 yesterday and it hurts losing by a hook, too bad Cibu did not cover. -1.1u on the thread. Let's go with another little parlay tomorrow.

A-Rad -5 & Kuzzy o21 0.5u to win 1u. Risky to back A-Rad on clay, but she is going against Pironkova. Now, Pironkova suddenly became a clay-court specialist this year but I think A-Rad can handle her. The winner of Kuzzy vs Muggz should feel pretty good about advancing further, possibly even to the final so I expect a battle.

GL folks.

[frugalgambler]

Another bad day. Kuzzy could not make a match of it. I stumbled upon her pre-match interview after the match finished, she said something like "you cannot be too upset after every loss". If a player says something like that before the match, this player is "ready" to lose. And then Begu lost, killing her futures. All those 3-setters got to her, although to be fair Rogers did look pretty good today. So that is -2.1u on the thread.

Looks like the chatter about RG has died away on SBR, and nobody is having a good time betting on it. But I am gonna keep on with my darts.

Timea -3.5 for 1u. Venus is 2-0 against her, but Timea has gained a lot of confidence over the past 18 months, and this is clay, and Venus is not getting any younger.

Parlay on Keys & CSN MLs 1u to win 1.1u. Both dogs have looked pretty awesome, but I am gonna go with experience, power of Keys and CSN's wizardry on clay.

Svitolina +6 for 1u. Well, Svitolina has also been playing at a high level in Paris, and she got Henin by her side. In fact, I am downright worried about Serena's ML tomorrow.

Let's see how it goes. Any input would be appreciated, as usual. GL folks.

[Jinge]

Keys is a good play, maybe even -1,5. Bertens has been playing nonstop singles and doubles since Nurnberg without much rest. She had cramps in her last match against Kasatkina 10-8 third set. Love betting on Bertens but shes running out of steam here. Maybe even livebet Keys when she is down a set and a break up in the second. The longer this match will take it will be an advantage for Keys.

[frugalgambler]

Keys is a good play, maybe even -1,5. Bertens has been playing nonstop singles and doubles since Nurnberg without much rest. She had cramps in her last match against Kasatkina 10-8 third set. Love betting on Bertens but shes running out of steam here. Maybe even livebet Keys when she is down a set and a break up in the second. The longer this match will take it will be an advantage for Keys.

Well, this extra day of rest might help Bertens. The implication of this rain delay is actually pretty bad Serena: she'll have to play every day now to win this and she is the oldest of the bunch. Muggz should be pretty happy to see this happening. Venus might also benefit from rest so I am not so happy about my Basz lean.

[frugalgambler]

Surprises keep happening, 1-2 today, -3.3u on the thread. But I am determined to see where this experiment takes me so I feel like throwing these darts

Timea -2.5 for 1u. Yeah, Bertens has been pretty sensational but I am gonna go with the more experienced Timea who also did not play as much tennis over the past three weeks.

I actually like both ATP matchups tomorrow. Now, that does not mean I am that confident in ATP but let's try a parlay Berdych +7.5 & Thiem -3 0.75u to win 1.75u

Dunno about Serena's match. Her opp has been unreal at this RG, but Serena tends to do well against small players. Then again Serena might lose outright tomorrow, given how this RG has been going for WTA favs. GL folks.

[gaebiskon]

still scratching my head on how the penetrate putinseva beat csn
will be fun watching putinseva trying drop shots against williams