[Jeff_Black]

Good day, aside from Tsonga checking out a day early to head to Melbourne

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250 - Final, Jack Sock vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: Jack Sock @ 1.73 on William Hill
Stake: 2u play

Bit surprised that William Hill has these odds compared to other books where you will usually get 1.6s but I'll take the moneyline anyway.

[Jeff_Black]

Stalemate there, Sock clearly walking wounded there, think he will be fine for the AO

ATP Sydney International 250 Final - Viktor Troicki vs Grigor Dimitrov
handicap: Viktor Troicki +3.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Will be happy to take the points again with Troicki like I did in Brisbane. Expecting him to come out in Sydney and give it his best crack to defend the title. Dimitrov has been good too but I suspect there'll be a lapse somewhere in his game like it has been in his other games.

[Jeff_Black]

Well that panned out exactly as I wrotr haha. Decent start to the year. Hope to continue that over the next few weeks, we'll see you all tommorow night/Monday morning here!

[Jeff_Black]

Bring on the Aussie Open, BOL to everyone else

ATP Australian Open - Round 128, Andreas Seppi vs Temuraz Gabashvili
Total Score: Over 40.5 @ 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Expecting more then 3 sets and with the way Seppi has been playing it is possible for it to go to four. He was a set and a break up against Istomin and lost a bit of concentration before regrouping to win in three. Also in the early rounds these guys can start slow and with some ok form from Gabashvili in Sydney he's more then capable of nabbing a set in the first or second one.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Australian Open - Round 128: Martin Klizan vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Martin Klizan +8.0 @ 1.806 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think this is a bit of an inflated line due to Bautista's title in Auckland and Klizans 0-2 start to the year which includes a retirement. With Klizan's ability on the serve and what he is capable of on hardcourts being not that much less then Bautista I think an 8 game head start is too much of a line to pass up on a capable dog.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, R128: Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Paul Henri Matheiu
Total Score: Over 38.5 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Paul-Henri Matheiu is the early round fade trap player and there are numerous examples in Grand Slams where he occasionally makes a tough fight tougher then it should be as an underdog with a small handicap. Even with Garcia-Lopez's improvements he's a known slow starter especially on the hard courts. Which is why sometimes they've set the lines so low because they expect Matheiu to drag out the match to 4 or 5 sets, which is what I expect here.

[JameisBrady]

marin cilic the first heavy favorite to go down

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open, Round 128 - Omar Jasika vs Illya Marchenko
Handicap: Omar Jasika +7.5 @ 1.85 on William Hill
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Good start, now to keep them coming...

Australian Open: R128, Mens Singles - Simone Bolleli vs Brian Baker
Handicap: Brian Baker +9.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

So Baker has played in one US F2 futures match since he last played in 2013 but by all reports he's been training hard since being medically cleared and when this guy attempted his first comeback he nearly caused a shock making it to the final in Nice and Round 4 in Wimbledon. Pound for pound comparing their best Baker probably has more talent in his pinky to me then the dodgy Italian Bolleli has shown his whole career. Taking the points again against a woeful Bolleli. 9 feels massive to me...

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open: R128, Mens Singles - Marco Cecchinato vs Nicolas Mahut
Handicap: Marco Cecchinato +8.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Even though he comfortably beat him in qualifying a week ago a line of 8 over three sets is ridiculously big for a guy who is 33 and is more then capable of losing to anyone inferior on his day. Looking through yesterdays matchup a lot of big lines given out were ridiculous and not many of them were covered or even close to it. Our key is to find the ones where lines are given out to players who have created an illusion of their form being better then what it actually is.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open: R128, Mens Singles - Tomaz Belluci vs Jordan Thompson
Total Score: Under 38.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open: R128, Mens Singles - Malek Jaziri vs Tommy Robredo
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +6.0 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open: R128 Men's Singles: David Ferrer vs Peter Gokowyzck
Handicap: Peter Gokowyzck +8.0 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

And the Gojowzcyk push and Checchiato loss in the third sets turns a very good day to just a good day

[Jeff_Black]

Hope I don't push my luck here but adding 1u on Dmitri Tursunov +9.5 @ 1.80 on Sportsbet against Stan.
Stans usually not one of the quickest starters. 9.5 is a tad too big for my liking...

[Jeff_Black]

Correct choice and was one game away from a push before retiring, grrrrrrrrrrrrr.....Anywhooooo moving on!

Australian Open Mens Singles R64 - Austin Krajicek vs Kei Nishikori
Handicap: Austin Krajicek +8.5 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Can't say I am sold on Nishikori yet although he beat Kohlscriebber comfortably. Another line that I think is a tad too big. Saw plenty from Austin to suggest he can keep this closer and cover the line. Plus I saw some nice things from him at the US Open and I think he won't mind the heat compared to Kei who sometimes can struggle against it like he did in Brisbane.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open Mens Singles R64 - Federico Delbonis vs Renzo Olivo
Handicap: Renzo Olivo +5.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Have not been impressed with Del Bonis so far to date in the Australian Open against an injured Karlovic and his Sydney form. He barely got through an absolutely awful playing Groth and then lost to Gabashvili. One thing about him is that he is a known inconsistent player. So I definately see more then a three set match which will IMO be enough for Olivo to get the cover. To that, Del Bonis has one of the worst serves in the top 100, mainly it's too predictable and he cant bank on it when he needs to like some other players. Which is why his game is suited to clay and he loves rallying with players on it. Olivo has built up some nice form in qualifying including an impressive win against Ymer. I think he covers.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open Mens Singles - Round 64, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Daniel Brands
Total Score: Under 41.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Gah, roof closed because of some drizzles, helping Kei for sure but Austin holding his own, just being outplayed until recently...

[KingHawkins]

Great hit with Austin, I tailed it pretty big and was able to get 8.5 at even money.
Thanks!

[Jeff_Black]

All good!
Austin played a bit better then the score indicated but like I posted Kei isn't a shutdown beat down type of player the way Djokovic is unless the opponent is arse.
Also the roof didn't help our cause either. Austin loves the heat more then Kei but he eventually adjusted to the indoors conditions
Still can't believe how often these big dogs cover in the men's.

[KingHawkins]

I watched the match, and cheered when Kei double faulted late in the 2nd set to let Austin work to the tiebreaker. And then when he fought hard for and won his 2nd game in the 3rd set, I cheered even more.
Austin is a hell of a tennis player. But Kei was/is clearly on another level. It was a treat to watch, although it really was a bit of a sweat to cover that 8.5. Had Kei not gotten broken late 2nd set, I don't think 8.5 covers. Anyway, cheers. Olivo looking good too, but sadly my book didn't offer me a spread on that match and I scared myself off of the ML.

[kj8210]

hey Jeff do you happen to know what your record is to date? just curious...thanks!

[Jeff_Black]

Had a slow start with some crap picks but def doing better for the AO
Gonna post my thread record once the AO is done rather then half arsedly doing it every while and then

[Jeff_Black]

I watched the match, and cheered when Kei double faulted late in the 2nd set to let Austin work to the tiebreaker. And then when he fought hard for and won his 2nd game in the 3rd set, I cheered even more.
Austin is a hell of a tennis player. But Kei was/is clearly on another level. It was a treat to watch, although it really was a bit of a sweat to cover that 8.5. Had Kei not gotten broken late 2nd set, I don't think 8.5 covers. Anyway, cheers. Olivo looking good too, but sadly my book didn't offer me a spread on that match and I scared myself off of the ML.

Yeah Keis concentration def dipped a bit in that second set.

[Jeff_Black]

Last play for today, 1u on Seppi/Kudla over 37.5 @ 1.90 on Sportsbet

[Jeff_Black]

Dang one too many...he had breaks as well a few times
Oh well still a good day

[KingHawkins]

Nothing today, Jeff? I was probably gonna tail anything you put on here.

[Jeff_Black]

Couldn't make up my mind so had to sleep on it. Will post a couple today

[KingHawkins]

Cool, thanks. I'll stay tuned.

[Jeff_Black]

Australian Open Mens Singles R64, Feliciano Lopez vs Guido Pella
Handicap: Guido Pella +7.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[kj8210]

jeff you liking anything later on? got money tied up in college basketball at the moment

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I saw Stan went from 7.5 to 7 so I'm taking that. Tad too small for my liking and Stans worst matches are usually his first ones.
Australian Open Mens Singles R64, Stan Wawrinka vs Radek Stepanek
handicap: Stan Wawrinka -7.0 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

[frugalgambler]

Are there actually any tennis events played in Oceania ? Or do you just like the sound of this word ?