[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, I try not to make them too long, but still provide a bit of reasoning behind my selections, just left it as the Trioicki one for today after some sloppiness last night so hopefully some good fortunate today.

Also it seems like Anderson withdrew before things even began in Chennai but the apps were a bit slow to update things which is why he was replaced by a Lucky Loser and I spoke to the bookie and they were happy enough to void my Anderson outright.
Usually if they play a match or retire during you get less luck but it's happened in the past so happy to scratch that one.
I think most Outrights will be straightforward this week (aside from women's Brisbane), Stan @ 2.60 looking good now

[Jeff_Black]

Brisbane has pretty fast conditions, from what I saw, so he might keep it close, if he maintains his serve on a high level throughout the match. So +3.5 might be just enough in the end. But not worth the risk, imho. Best of luck anyway!

Also nice call with the just enough!
Guess that makes up for losing on Busta by the hook

[Honeybadger44]

Handicap was close just because of that poor third set. To be honest, I was not expecting Troicki to be so close to the win here. You definitely deserved to win this one, as your prediction was pretty spot on. Keep up the good work!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, yeah it did turn out to be a surprise that Troicki was up a break as well in that second set. Unsurprisingly went down 2-6 in that third set.

ATP Brisbane International QF - Kei Nishikori vs Bernard Tomic
Set Betting: Kei Nishikori 2-0 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I am surprised they are, again setting a straight sets win at desirable odds considering Tomic's poor record against top 10 players and his very unconvincing win over a 37 year old Radek Stepanek.
I watched Nishikori's first match against Kukushkin and felt he is adequate enough for this task to again win in 2 sets. The pace of the game and groundstrokes will most certainly be a different level to the two guys Bernie has faced so far.

[Jeff_Black]

Push on Pouille, probably also fortunate he was serving first in both sets but also pretty disappointed he came out of the blocks slow in those sets as well.
Wit that I'll take the push

[Jeff_Black]

ATP: Brisbane International QF
Marin Cilic vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Dominic Thiem +3.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Wasn't sold on Thiem on HCs until recently but I think he can give it a good crack against a Cilic who has been unconvincing so far. He struggled against Chung despite it being his first match but even so I was unimpressed by Chung in both matches and I see potentially three sets

[Conqueror]

I'm seeing Thiem +3.5 (-141) at Bookmaker.
Looks like he could beat Cilic just like Tomic just beat Nishikori.

[Jeff_Black]

Seems so. Very intense match and Thiem got better as the match went on. Cilic got a little more tired making errors he wasn't before and not getting his serves like he was earlier in the game.
The less said about Kei though the better!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha 250 Semi Finals - Rafael Nadal and Illya Marchenko
Total Score: Under 20.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Marchenko has had a good run here but I think it ends at the expense of Nadal. He would not have been happy with himself dropping a set to Kuznetsov from a winnable position and will without a doubt want to make quick work of Marchenko to preserve himself for the final. There is a lingering thought that at the back of my mind that he'll 'check out' of this match to preserve the h2h with Djokovic like he did in Shanghai but I think he will want to be playing every match well in preparation for the Australian Open and try a few different things if he does get to play him there.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Chennai QF - Roberto Bautista Agut vs Borna Coric
Total Score: Over 22.0 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Bautista Agut had two comfortable wins against Coric in 2015 but they were on clay and I think comparing then and now and in Doha I think Coric has been an improved player notable on his serve. Seeing a potential three set match in this spot and last year Bautista is a known guy who doesn't mind a slow start and going the distance.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane Semi Final - Bernard Tomic vs Milos Raonic
Total Games: Over 23.5 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

The Semi final matchup features a Tomic who is coming high off a win against one of the top seeds in Kei Nishikori and a Raonic who has been unspectacular so far in his two wins. From what I've seen of Tomic he has bought his service game here in Brisbane against an average returning Raonic I expect a close game from them.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane Semi Finals - Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Total Score: Under 21.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

21 seems to be a bit of an overreaction to Federer's blip against Dimitrov but I personally think he has been playing fine and good enough to beat Theim in 2 comfortable sets.
Thiems win against Cilic was good but Cilic IMO did get a bit tired against him later in the game which led to a few more second serves and fired shots.
Also the potential injury cloud is a little overrated by people on Federer's side. I think he will be ready to go when they walk out.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha Semi Finals - Borna Coric vs Aljaz Bedene
Total Score: Under 23.0 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Both players have toughed out their way to making the Semi Finals but I think Bedene's good run comes to an end here in Chennai. Yes I may seem strange for opting to take the under total when I've said I think Coric will win but just taking into account I think it will be a two set match and by some surprise a guy like Bedene pulls off an upset. I just feel more comfortable making this play.

[Jeff_Black]

Normally I'm ok with letting things ride but in this world of getting uncertainty I'm gonna lay off my Federer outright posted earlier in the thread. Especially with how he lost to Hewitt two years ago
1u on Milos Raonic to win @ 4.19
So regardless of who wins either way it will be a 4u profit

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, Final - Roger Federer vs Milos Raonic
Total Score: Over 23.5 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

As shaky as Raonic has been in this tournament I have to give him a little due respect that his serving has been keeping him in this tournament and that hopefully he will keep it close for one more match. Against Federer last year he fought back from a set and a break down to force it into three sets and with the likeliness of a tiebreaker it could be again possible.
As awesome as Federer has been his serving opponents apart from possibly Dimitrov, have been average most notable his SF opponent Thiem who came off a big come back win against Cilic. He looked tired and it showed.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Chennai 250 Final - Stan Wawrinka vs Borna Coric
Total Score: Under 21.0 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There isn't a whole lot to say about this matchup. Stan has had a solid tournament to start the year like he usually likes to do and has not dropped a set on his way to the final.
As much as I rate Coric's future the level between the guys he has played and Stan will be very different and playing in his first final being so young I think the occasion may get to him a little.

[Jeff_Black]

Well thank goodness I hedged out my Federer outright...not himself today.

[Steamroller]

Well thank goodness I hedged out my Federer outright...not himself today.

Your Federer outright bet was 5u and Raonic hedge 1u so it's no profit.

[Jeff_Black]

Yup that, wrote it wrong

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, Round 32 - Steve Johnson vs Matthew Barton
Handicap: Matthew Barton +4.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Didn't have time to do a write up earlier for both these but Johnson was pretty ordinary in his previous Doha and I think 4.5 is a bit generous considering his slow starts. Barton has mainly played Challengers but a guy that can cause some trouble early on, much like other aussie scrappers like Duckworth/Groth but aren't really tour level standard.

ATP Sydney International 250, Round 32 - Dennis Istomin vs Andreas Seppi
Handicap: Andreas Seppi -1.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Haven't really rated Istomin aside from his serve and some groundstrokes but Seppi with his style of play being decent on hardcourts I'll take him at the closer odds mainly due to I think his surprise loss first up. He's 3-1 against Istomin on HCs despite playing close matches and I think he'll continue that trend again.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250, Round 32 - Vasek Pospisil vs Ivo Karlovic
Moneyline: Ivo Karlovic @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Normally I'm not a fan of taking players playing their first matches but I think with how poor Pospisil was against Bedene, a match he shouldn't lose I'll take Ivo and his serve to get the job done on a surface that has favoured the faster servers in the past.

[Jeff_Black]

11-12 full hours to analyse things, let's go go go!!!

ATP Sydney International 250, Round 32 - Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Tomaz Belluci
Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov -3.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Dolgopolov here is by far the more superior hardcourt player and shot-maker out of this matchup and i'll gladly take a -3.5 handicap against a Belluci who's HC season in 2015 was less then spectacular losing his first four matches. I like what I saw from the Dog at the Hopman Cup despite it being an exhibition winning all his matches despite a quite up and down to 2016 and that is no exaggeration, he pushed Djokovic twice including a 7-5, 4-0 lead before losing but also going on several losing runs as well.

ATP Sydney International 250 - Borna Coric vs Gilles Muller
Handicap: Gilles Muller -2.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I'll forgive Muller's slow start to the year knowing what he is fully capable of having seen what he is fully capable of last year. Also Coric is coming off a final in Chennai, so that involves some possible media commitments on Sunday night before flying out on Monday getting used to this surface in the space of less then 24 hours. As good as a prospect he is, he is only 18 and still a kid in the tour. Definately expecting to see a bit of fatigue kick in and him not give his best, understandably so.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International - Futures/Outright Betting

The beauty about the Sydney International is the often lack of a high seeded player sinning. Del Potro did it a few years back and it has hurt his career a fair bit as it has shown. But even to the not injury prone, you don't want to be in Sydney as a winner on a Saturday night with the Australian Open a day away if you're playing on the Monday.
Number 1 seed Bernard Tomic has assured his seeding in the top 16 regardless of what happens in Sydney because of his performance and Benoit Paire's in the previous week. He'll be happy with his performance but his mind won't be all there in Sydney IMO. Grigor Dimitrov is also a high seed here but with his poor performances in majors I see him having a few tune up games before being happy to pack his bags and head down the border to Melbourne.
Dominic Thiem had a good week in Brisbane but I don't expect him to go all out especially hardcourts not suiting his natural game. That leaves us with a few dimes in the rough.

0.5u on the following...

Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 15.00
As I mentioned in my write-up for him against Belluci I saw enough in his form that suggests he will want to do well in a tune up tournament in preparation for the Australian Open. As a player that thrives on confidence which he lacked in a several game losing skid after the US Hardcourt Summer I think he will want to boost his confidence and go as far as possible here. Also he is a fan favourite in Australia and with the crowds after his QF run in 2011 and I think they'll cheer him on and he will thrive off the support of the fans.

Tommy Robredo @ 17.00
The Warrior is a guy I dont mind backing from time to time despite his age he has a very doable top half of the draw. I haven't been sold on defending champion Viktor Troicki on his side and with a full season under his belt after an unfair drug suspension I think he will set his sights higher for the Australian Open.

Gilles Muller @ 23.00
A guy who can serve his way deep into a draw I was impressed with what I saw of him last year here and after in the Australian Open. Due to his slow start last week I think he will want to have a good week in Sydney before heading to the Australian Open and with a doable draw on his bottom half with players he can beat he isn't a bad bet in my eyes.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250, Sam Groth vs Federico Delbonis
Set Betting: Sam Groth 2-0 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Ok, i'll give Groth a second chance considering Australia and grass are the only times worth backing him. Against a player who has never been over .500 on hards in his career and capable of losing to anyone outside of clay, i'll take the chance. Not only is he mediorce on hard courts but his HC starts to the year to me seem like he doesn't care much about losing and is only using it as a spring board for match fitness to be ready for clay as well as collecting decent pay packets that the Major tournaments offer. Groth SHOULD win this comfortably so we'll see how it goes.

[Jeff_Black]

Raining all day in Kiwi land it seems, might sit this one out for a few days...

[Jeff_Black]

Second and final chance for Groth anytime soon
That was an abomination to watch

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Sydney International 250 - Gilles Muller vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Gilles Muller +2.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Gilles Muller had a sound and convincing win over Borna Coric who like I mentioned previously had the lingering effects of playing in a final then the travel and short turnaround that followed. But again I think he is undervalued against Thiem especially if he can get the serve going.

ATP Sydney International 250 - Jeremy Chardy vs James Duckworth
Handicap: Jeremy Chardy -3.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think Duckworth is a bit overvalued on his home soil with limited match practice he played a player who plays more on clay and was a lucky loser in qualifying. I was happy enough with Chardy's service game and grounstrokes and I think he'll expose Duckworth a bit more then his other opponents have including a 'made him look better' match against Dominic Thiem.

[Vinnie Paz]

Hey Jeff how about Anderson?

[Jeff_Black]

wasnt sure about Auckland with the rain holding up play and a logjam of matches meant players had little rest. Probably didn't matter much for Anderson who hasnt played. Might wait and see what his next match is like.

[Jeff_Black]

Well right play with Muller, just the match wasn't finished which is disappointing.

ATP Auckland 250, Round 16 - Philipp Kohlscriebber vs Jo Wlfried Tsonga
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscriebber +2.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Normally wasn't going to add another play but after re-visiting Auckland and noticing (hopefully it doesn't rain) that Kohlscriebber is playing last and therefore should have sufficient rest I saw enough in his match against Becker that he can keep this matchup close with Tsonga who is playing his second match of the year.
He seems to not mind this surface as well in previous years having done well and played against several big names. Tsonga has shrugged off injury concerns following a 1-6 1-6 loss to David Ferrer in the opening round of Abu Dhabi but I'm a bit skeptical that there'll be a bit of rust from him considering he has probably rested his injured forearm.

Was debating between that and Troicki/Robredo over 23.0 and had been eyeing that total all day but decided to leave it.

[Jeff_Black]

New day, new matches

ATP Sydney International 250 - Gilles Muller vs Jeremy Chardy
Handicap: Gilles Muller -1.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Muller is playing with a good patch of form particular on the serve and I wasn't overly all impressed with Chardy's effort against Duckwork, who neither has the movement nor shot making to trouble someone in the top 50 let alone Chardy. I can see Muller improving in his QF appearance in Sydney last year.

ATP Sydney International 250 - Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov +3.0 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Despite the somewhat one sided head to head in previous years I think +3 is a bit too generous for Dolgopolov with the potential of a close match and three setter. Somewhat still not sold on Dimitrov's form in Australia so will watch this match with interest regardless.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Auckland 250 - Jack Sock vs Kevin Anderson
Moneyline: Jack Sock @ 1.925 on PInnacle
Stake: 1u play

Been paying close attention to Sock that he probably didn't take the Hopman Cup seriously but has come to Auckland to string together some good form. Definately a guy that can match it with these big servers. No surprise that he smacked Pospisil so I'm expecting some good wins from him here, hopefully he doesn't make me look silly!

[Jeff_Black]

Good to see Sock wake up and stop playing like crap when he faced break points and elimination in that second set. Probably helpful that Anderson got a bit tired but he (Sock) was the better player from that moment on.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Australian Open Qualifiers
Michael Berrer vs Taylor Fritz
Handicap: Taylor Fritz -3.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not doing a lot of qualifiers myself but I'll do a few if I like them and I like the Fritz's confidence going into this year. He's had a good 2016 so far coming off a Challenger title and I think he will push hard to play in the first major of the year.

[Jeff_Black]

Bloody rain delays!! Plays were looking ok until then...Anyway moving on.
Will leave Sydney out for tommorow with players backing up on the same day and questionable motivation

ATP Auckland 250 SF - Jack Sock vs David Ferrer
Handicap: Jack Sock +3.0 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Moneyline: Jack Sock @ 2.76 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

As I pointed out with Sock, he's come to play and when he stopped mucking around against Anderson the 6'8" giant had no answers even with his serve. He was simply out played from both ends of the court. I think Sock has both the power/strokes and serving to compete with an ageing Ferrer who has again done well to make the SF. But with a much weaker serve then facing Anderson I don't mind Sock in this play as a dog.

ATP Auckland 250 - SF, Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -2.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I seem to have underestimated Tsonga a little bit and that will change. He's straight setted both Kolhscriebber and Fognini two potential tricky players and I was surprised Isner cracked against Bautista. But the difference between Tsonga and Isner apart from Tsonga being better on the second serve is that he is a better mover and defender and can turn defense into attack better then Isner does. Bautista won't only have to hope that Tsonga makes errors like Isner did but he will also have to outhit and outrally him too. On this surface I see Tsonga getting it done and building up some momentum for the AO.