As you follow, he played very bad and hit lots of unforced errors against Nadal. However, he had 10 aces in this match.
In addition, Waw and Ferrer faced in this tournament 2 years ago when Waw beaten Ferrer. And yes he hit 14 aces in this match too.
This hard indoor court suits Waw a lot. I expect min. 7-8 aces from him.
Wawrinka -5.5 aces @1.80
Wawrinka aces 6.5 over @1.65