[cryptocap]

Madrid was great for me, eventually tipping Murray to win. Lets try and predict the 'Roman Tournament'

R64 ~
Sock vs Simon @2.1
Kohlschreiber vs Young @1.12
Isner vs Sousa @1.28
Dimitrov vs Janowicz @1.12...maybe 3 sets, not as easy as odds suggest imo.
Lajovic vs Monaco @3...beat young borna handedly...pushing for a good tournament
Thiem vs Bolelli @2.25...Thiem has been resting since Munich, is so talented...Bolelli is playing over his head.
Cuevas vs Lorenzi @1.11...2-0 in sets probly, Lorezi is not a tour player on clay
Ilhan vs Mannarino @1.72...coin flip match...never liked Adrian so I will pick the revived Turk!
Gasquet vs Fabbiano @1.01...2-0 in sets...lost a tight game with Berdych in Madrid and will be energized!
Fognini vs Johnson @1.28...Would honestly take Johnson if this wasnt in Italy, he gets it done....FOGNAAAA!
Bold are winners*


Interesting R64, many new matchups...should be some tenative tennis, and maybe some surprises! GOOD LUCK!

[matt1216]

Why do you like Sock? This court is suited best for Simon... A very Slow Clay suites the Returner. Sock hits the winners but Simon will frustrate Sock to no end

[cryptocap]

I agree that the style of Simon is primarily based on the unforced errors of his opponents but Sock is not just a serve. Hes a baseliner with a great forehand, plays the ball with a lot of spin and his service game will allow him take control of his points...especially vs Simon who is actually a pretty small guy. Pushing Simon farther back definitely kills his angle and increases the distance he has to cover to get to the ball...Its a hunch given their recent form as well.

[Hardcoar]

Rome is among the slower, isn't it?

I know for a fact that Monte Carlo is by far the slowest, measured in hold/break ratio, according to a reliable (albeit distant party) source.

[SirtySree]

I thought Rome was fast. Either that or I'm imagining things.

[SirtySree]

Just looked up a site that bases speed of number of aces and Rome used to be one of the slowest but they have sped it up in 2013 and even more last year. It's up there with some of the faster clay courts and would say it's medium-fast. Going of the ace count this year without watching any of the matches, that definitely seems like an accurate judgement.

[Hardcoar]

Cool, thanks for the intel.

[JC1186]

Why do you like Sock? This court is suited best for Simon... A very Slow Clay suites the Returner. Sock hits the winners but Simon will frustrate Sock to no end

Think of Sock as the male version of Stosur.

It's easy to think they'd be better suited to grass, but the clay actually gives them time to run around their weakness, and use their huge strength to hit winners.

[Hardcoar]

Just looked up a site that bases speed of number of aces and Rome used to be one of the slowest but they have sped it up in 2013 and even more last year. It's up there with some of the faster clay courts and would say it's medium-fast. Going of the ace count this year without watching any of the matches, that definitely seems like an accurate judgement.

That said, it might be a flawed indicator due to lack of prevalance.

[Hardcoar]

Oh f*ck me, another generic British stereotype with negative (as in actually less than zero) insight: "oh dearie me R2D2... that's wayward!"

Yes, I can see it is wayward, for I am not blind. If I were blind, I would not be watching tennis in the first place. I am not deaf either, but I wish I were as at least then I would not have to suffer through your commentary, you dipshit piece of f*ck.

[Hardcoar]

This guy is more annoying than any other I can even recall too. Does anyone know his name?

[bet-lag]

Sock nearly hit.

[tsimmns]

Won a stack on Isner ML. Recoups me from the stack I lost on an NBA prop bet last night. Might go with a small wager on Manny ML.

[cryptocap]

^ a stack on isner?...so you wagered like 4 grand LOL?

anyways sock had the game he was doing well and lajovic was close...it was worth it

8/10...Thiem was a good value

[matt1216]

Good job Cyto, that Thiem play was solid.

[cryptocap]

2nd Day:

Cilic vs Garcia-Lopez @1.56...Both lost to Verdasco in Madrid but Cilic will have enough quality here.
Schwartzman vs Bellucci @2.2...Another talented youngster who excels on the clay.
Klizan vs Dolgopolov @3...Much like Lajovic yesterday, I expect this match to be close, Klizan owns the H2H 2-0 so lets ride him again.
Tomic vs Troicki @2.45...I hate both players, Tomic is a heavy hitter with a shitty attitude, both are in terrible form.
Kyrgios vs Lopez @1.44...Consistency is something Kyrgios will have to learn to become a tour star, is he ready after such a dense schedule? Lopez is no pushover and I am honestly going with the favorite here since ive gone with so many dogs, really lol
Wawrinka vs Monaco @1.36...STAN THE MAN!
Granollers vs Bautista-Agut @3.8...Another clay dog with some fight, has a good H2H record and really dont like B-Agut favoured...
Tsonga vs Querrey @1.32...Tsonga is warming up, we will see what he has.
Kohlschreiber vs Anderson @1.36...Kevin is not a very strong clay player, the german will have an edge here.

*Bold are winners, Dogs all around in todays R64 n R32...GO GET EM!

Gasquet vs Ferrer...? After 2012 it looks like Gasquet figured out Ferrer, he definitely hasnt been the power he once was. Gasquets form alone can shake this match up...what do you guys think...gunna be a great match!

[slayer14]

cillic mentally gone

[lucasdawg]

rinka is struggling dont think hes gonna come thru, live bet monaco @2.10 4-3 up in set 1

[cryptocap]

lol i might have made some bad picks

[Vinnie Paz]

Stan no good

[lucasdawg]

Kyrgios was terrible. standard quality from a youngsta

[mdunlap3]

Kyrgios straight head case, guy was talking to himself

[lucasdawg]

fading jankovic

[tsimmns]

Stan wins. And a stack to me is only a 100 with my anal bankroll. Up around 600 bucks since a deposit I made back around the middle of April on tennis and NBA. I play on 5d and take advantage of their prop bets on sets.

[Hardcoar]

Tomic vs Troicki @2.45...I hate both players, Tomic is a heavy hitter with a shitty attitude, both are in terrible form.
Kyrgios vs Lopez @1.44...Consistency is something Kyrgios will have to learn to become a tour star, is he ready after such a dense schedule? Lopez is no pushover and I am honestly going with the favorite here since ive gone with so many dogs, really lol
Wawrinka vs Monaco @1.36...STAN THE MAN!
Tsonga vs Querrey @1.32...Tsonga is warming up, we will see what he has.

Find the flaws...

Other than that, even without flaws, your lines in general will be the death of you in the long run.

Best of luck!

[cryptocap]

I know, I know I was actually very skeptical on these matchups...but it's ok. I love the game n these are just my ideas

[Hardcoar]

Yeah I only mean to help, but the point is that those aren't very convincing reasons for making substantial bets, IMO. Granted, there may have been more to it than the text quoted...

[cryptocap]

thanks man!

[cryptocap]

2/6

[cryptocap]

Day 3 R32:

Isner vs Mayer @1.44...Two heavy serves meet, Isner made the QF in Madrid and gave Berdych a hell of a scare...Mayer faced some break points and against a quality player in Isner he may not be so lucky this time.
Dolgopolov vs Garcia-Lopez @1.83...Garcia-Lopez really dismantled Cilic, but Dolgopolov the qualifier hasnt dropped a set yet in 3 matches and his last few losses have come in very tough games vs great opponents, I like him to continue his hunt for the later stages of a tournament.
Thiem vs Simon @2.25...Simon conquered Sock in 3 sets but he looked shaky and was even shouting out of his mind over his run of play, Thiem is one of the talents of the tour and knows how to recover in longer games...he has the shot making ability to do what Sock couldnt,
Dimitrov vs Fognini @1.50...3rd clay meeting of the season for these players, Fognini converted only 3/14 break points last match in a back and fourth match, the crowd could be a factor in getting the confidence for those decisive moments but Dimitrov ultimately has points to defend after making the semis last year and will be putting his best foot forward to secure his top 10 ambitions this season at 23 yrs old.
Tsonga vs Goffin @1.56...I really like Jo's last match, completely dominated the 2nd set and it looks as if he has really fired up his game upon his return, Goffin is Belgiums #1 but will need a truly inspired level of play to fight off the Frenchman. 1st serve will be key.
Lopez vs Troicki @1.72...Troicki played a very intense match with Tomic, maximum points played while Lopez faced a childish Kyrgios...Lopez has alot more weapons than Tomic and will be motivated against an opponent with a questionable run of form.

FED 2-0...@1.56...Faced off in the final of Istanbul in a great match for Fed...The legend will be looking to bounce back from his defeat to Kyrgios


GoodLuck

[JC1186]

FED 2-0...@1.56...Faced off in the final of Istanbul in a great match for Fed...The legend will be looking to bounce back from his defeat to Kyrgios

GoodLuck

It is never easy to go against a sporting great, but imo there's a shit ton of value in Cuevas.

I wasn't going to play it, but have now gone pretty hard @ 4.70. Go figure! I'm feeling it though.

He had a bunch of chances and really should have won the second set against Fed in the Istanbul final. Quite frankly Pablo has the game to beat just about anyone on clay. Perhaps the exception being Novak.

After all he was a set and a break up against Rafa just a couple months ago.. before a massive collapse.

Cuevas can imo outlast A Rog lacking confidence and making errors from the back of the court.

It should be an explosive match anyhow.

GL

[fitguy67]

best of luck crypto

[SirtySree]

Fed dominated the last match against Cuevas despite the scoreline. Could have easily won the 2nd set by double break but Cuevas had some luck.

Odds are low as usual for Fed though so nothing much to do there but Cuevas isn't priced that attractively either. I'm expecting a Fed win in straight sets. Only way for Cuevas to win is if he plays way better than the last time and Fed has a meltdown which is rare and can't really recall last time that happened.

[Dmoneytx]

Your last two days have got to be somewhere around -2,000?? I haven't seen someone consistently get almost every match wrong on back to back days in a long long time..
Jesus, you need to stop posting or this will soon become the ultimate fade thread I guess.. Ouch..

[fitguy67]

Public Service Announcement

for the good of the thread (and your sanity) do not respond in any way to the above "contribution"...consider the source and let it be

to do so is like pouring gasoline on a fire