[kenz]

I also read it, thats true!

[Honeybadger44]

Santiago Giraldo @2.18 Pinnacle 2 units
As we said so many times, clay in Houston is quite fast and allows big hitters to hang with clay court specialists. Jack Sock even managed to upset one yesterday, when he defeated Bautista-Agut (although he is not really a clay court specialist). He was hitting the ball superbly, but looked uncomfortable with his movment on this surface.
That is why I don't see him as a favorite against Giraldo here. Ball striking on a very high level is very dificult to repeat day in and day out. It depends on so many things like: who is the opponent (in which way the ball is coming to you), weather, how are you feeling it that day etc.
Santiago has been struggling a lot in past months, but this surface does fit his style nicely.

[Dmoneytx]

HB, no going to RO for me this year.. Sucks!! Anyways, good luck today man. Always BOL

[Dmoneytx]

I love Giraldo in this match today, I just wish the odds were higher on Sock.. The rain today will SLOW down those courts for sure & I think Jack might struggle with having to rally much longer today. Giraldo plays so well here, hard to not back him as a small dog really...

My friend is at the matches right now. The rain stopped half hour ago he said. They will be playing in probably 15 mins or less he said, just to give you a heads up bec all the matches are in the stadium court and go on after one another..

[Honeybadger44]

Great point about rain slowing down playing conditions little bit. Giraldo will definitely like that. Thanks for the info! Good luck.

[Honeybadger44]

Santiago Giraldo +2.5 games @1.91 Pinnacle 2 units
adding another two units to original ML bet, because odds keps getting better and I have to take this spread. Also, Dmoneytx's information about rainy conditions was improtant, because it will slow the courts and give more edge to Giraldo.

Klara Koukalova @9.05 Pinnacle 1 unit
Books were twisting my hand with these odds, so I gotta take it. Koukalova looked really good here (at least in match against Zvonareva which I saw). Definitely her best in quite some time. Small problem could be that she plays the game similar to Radwanska and it's tough to beat elite player in her own game. But considering form of both players, I think it's possible atm. Definitely worth a shot at these odds.

[Hardcoar]

Only a single unit?

I R DISAPPOINT
: (

[Honeybadger44]

Luckily only single unit, yes.

[lucasdawg]

any update on when game will resume @houston?

[Dmoneytx]

What's up lucdawg? I live in Houston, as most of ya know, the rain stopped here about 15-20 mins ago. I called down to RO, they said it kept drizzling but looked like it was stopping. They could be getting ready to come back soon bec they do a great job of getting the court ready in like 15 mins at RO bec the ground crew is so good. They get on it immediately when it stops raining. Not much longer I bet. Also, the rain here has kind of pushed on from what the skies look like. I don't think more rain is coming tonight. Might get this match going soon here, 30 min range & tennis all night long after that. That would be sweet..

[SCI]

Watched the match. Giraldo needs self destruction right now and Sock wasn't up to it. Giraldo came up tiny on break points on both sides. Sock had 3 double faults in a service game and Giraldo still had no answer.

Sock didn't play great, but still outplayed Giraldo in every aspect today. Sock is too confident right now. It looks like Giraldo is in for a long year, while Sock could crack the top 20.

[Honeybadger44]

To be honest, I fell asleep before it started. 0/7 break point conversion says it all. When you are going against a guy with big serve, you simply gotta convert those opportunities. Giraldo failed to do that and topped it of with only 1 saved bp out of 3.

It might sound bit ignorant, but the way I feel about this bet, is that I would take it again in a heartbeat. I simply saw too much value there. Especially in that bet on the spread. While that ML bet maybe needed some rethinking.

To sum it up, less then two units of loss yesterday. I think we'll survive it. Today is a new day!

[Honeybadger44]

Gabriela Ce @2.48 Pinnacle 2 units
I have to admit that I've never seen Mertens play. According to some of the websites, 19 year old, talented, prefers hard courts. Good thing for her was that she played at ITF Medelin to adjust to the playing conditions on the altitude little bit. But I still think she will have a lot of problems with a player like Ce. Brazilian is a lefty clay court specialist. She is moonballing a lot and creating many unusual situations for her opponents. Player with a lot of fighting spirit. And I don't see her as a dog in this situation. I was tempted to go with more units, but since its the qualies and I don't know much about Mertens, I'm sticking with 2 units for this play.

[Honeybadger44]

Borna Čorić @3.75 Pinnacle 2 units
Dolgopolov in good form, but odds on Borna are too good to pass up, imho. He was very inconsistant lately, but when he is on, he can play on very high level. If he manages to put out good defensive performance, forcing DOlgi to play extra shot in every point, anything can happen.

[SCI]

Borna Čorić @3.75 Pinnacle 2 units
Dolgopolov in good form, but odds on Borna are too good to pass up, imho. He was very inconsistant lately, but when he is on, he can play on very high level. If he manages to put out good defensive performance, forcing DOlgi to play extra shot in every point, anything can happen.

He played well and Dolgo was a little lackluster, but age killed him. He came up small when it mattered in the 3rd set.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, I saw the match. 4th game of 3rd set was crucial, imho. Had 3 break points in a row to even that set out, but failed to convert.

[Dmoneytx]

What's up HB??? I hope you have a good week man. I just saw that you were on Coric, damn I got lucky taking Dolgo I thought. I hate betting on that guy, but I was gonna take Busta & said fuk it, I'll go with Dogpoopoolov.. I took Sock in the final at RO That was double awesome bec I went big on Querrey in the semi final, lol.. Gotta know when to back em, know when to fade em, lol.. Probably lucky there.. My only other play today besides Doggypoo was Isner. I must be smoking crack man, lol.. I just kinda felt John tanked Houston to get ready to for the French, I'm not surprised actually to see him up set and break on Johnson. I hope he finishes strong here..

NTERNET / -1

Ticket #: 34749XXX Apr 13 06:00 PM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [8160] A DOLGOPOLOV -275 (B CORIC vrs A DOLGOPOLOV)

200 / 72

72

WIN WIN

04/13/2015 01:20 AM

Ticket#:34750XXX Apr 13 10:00 AM

INTERNET / -1

Apr 13 09:56 AM

MU

STRAIGHT BET [8124] J ISNER -185 (S JOHNSON vrs J ISNER)

270 / 145

[Honeybadger44]

Hey Money! I am happy to hear that you did well last week and as far as I can see, you succesfully carried that over into this one. Keep up the good work!

[Honeybadger44]

Jared Donaldson @2.65 4units at 5dimes
Sorribes Tormo @1.95 2 units (5dimes)
Kimiko Date-Krumm @3.00 1 unit (5dimes)
Diego Schwartzman to win ATP Casablanca @27 1 unit (pinnacle)
Sam Groth ML @3.00 2units (Pinnacle)
Sam Groth +3 @1.99 2 units (Pinnacle)
Donna Vekic @5.44 Pinnacle 1unit
Steve Johnson +1,5 games @1.94 Pinnacle 2 units
Gonzalez/Bedene over 20.5 games @1.87 Pinnacle 1 unit
Donna Vekić @4.30 Pinnacle 2 units
Yaroslava Shvedova +3.5 games @2.00 5Dimes 2 units
Crvena Zvezda ML @2.73 Pinnacle 2 units
Crvena Zvezda +4.5 @1.93 Pinnacle 3 units
Feliciano Lopez -3 @1.94 Pinnacle 2 units
John Isner -3 @1.87 Pinnacle 2 units
Lamine Ouahab +3.5 games @1.99 Pinnacle 2 units
Jiri Vesely +2.5 games @1.88 Pinnacle 4 units
Santiago Giraldo @2.18 Pinnacle 2 units
Santiago Giraldo +2.5 games @1.91 Pinnacle 2 units
Klara Koukalova @9.05 Pinnacle 1 unit
Gabriela Ce @2.48 Pinnacle 2 units
Borna Čorić @3.75 Pinnacle 2 units


record 12-10
hit rate 54,5%
staked 44u
yield +15.42u
roi +35%

[Vinnie Paz]

I see 10 red picks.

[Honeybadger44]

Well spoted. Thanks! I checked rest of the numbers after your comment, and it seems they are ok.

[Honeybadger44]

Vesely/Monaco over 21,5 games @1.90 Pinnacle 3 units
I see decent value here. Line is simply too low. Backing Vesely to step up the plate in any way (ML, spread, total) has value at the moment, because he had bad first quarter of the season, but I believe he can raise the level of his game on european clay. His main problems are anyway more in the mental aspect of the game. Inconsistant performer throughout the match and a lot of times chokes, when he needs to close it out. But I am pretty sure that he will have a good period in this match, which will help push the total over this line.

[girlscoutcookies]

total letdown from vesely. really nice thread here as well. awesome ROI. keep it up HB

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks Scout!

Budučnost VOLI Podgorica @1.85 Pinnacle 2 units
Got into bit of a slump lately, so I am gonna try to get out of it with another basketball pick. This is the game 2 of the semifinal series in Adriatic league (best of 5 series). Yesterday, Budučnost von game 1 by single point. Savović scored two freethrows with less then two seconds to go, which secured the win for them in a game, where they were behind for most of the time.
Yesterday, Budučnost was 4 point favorite and I think the correct line is around -3.5 . Public is clearly overreacting on the result from yesterday and expecting Cedevita to do pretty much the same as in game 1. But I completely disagree. Yesterday, the pressure was on Budučnost. Today, it's on Cedevita, because they cannot afford to go 0-2 in the series. That will definitely be a big factor. Combined with better roster and home court adventage, Budučnost should get the job done and represent some nice value at these odds.

[Semper Fidelis]

Wow, nice call on the hoops once again my man! Used that as the last leg of a parlay that paid a pretty decent sum! You should post other sports more often, it'd be easy to check them here.

Good to see you back posting plays! Thanks for all you contribute to this forum, and BOL on all your plays the rest of the week - very much looking forward to your analysis and discussion throughout the season!

[Honeybadger44]

Yuksel A. @13 5dimes 1 units
Mersin challenger. Saw part of his match in the first round. Seemed to me like he is somewhat decent, so I am going to take a shot at such high odds. French player on the other side had quite some success lately, but it was mostly indoor hard.

[Honeybadger44]

Wow, nice call on the hoops once again my man! Used that as the last leg of a parlay that paid a pretty decent sum! You should post other sports more often, it'd be easy to check them here.

Good to see you back posting plays! Thanks for all you contribute to this forum, and BOL on all your plays the rest of the week - very much looking forward to your analysis and discussion throughout the season!

Thanks a lot! I am really glad to hear that it helped you to make some extra money on that parlay

I will definitely post picks from all the sports, as long as I think they are solid. Cheers!

[Honeybadger44]

Paire/Wawrinka @2.70 5dimes 3 units
I noticed that many times, doubles specialists get overvalued by the books, like in this case. Matkowski and Zimonjić are both proven veterans in doubles game. But they shouldn't be favored by this much against quality players like Paire and Wawrinka.
French-Swiss duo already beat two very good teams this week, which were maybe even better then todays opponent (Bopanna/Mergea and Nestor/Paes). When they are motivated to make a result in doubles game, I believe that these two great shotmakers should be pretty much even up against most of these doubles specialists.

[Hardcoar]

While I agree with your general sentiment (as well as the value of this specific bet in particular), I'm inclined to think that you, on the other hand may be undervaluing doubles specialists.

I'm far from a doubles specialist (bettor) myself, but I'm somewhat confident in rating their opposition in this match lower than that of previous rounds, just as you imply is the case yourself.

Good luck!

[Honeybadger44]

Sergiy Stakhovsky @1.96 Pinnacle 3 units
Of course, you can't be too thrilled about Stakhovsky on clay, but this is more of a Čorić fade play.He separated with his fitness coach few days ago and now with his "head" coach Zeljko Krajan as well. With explanation that Krajan wants to spend more time with his family... Not really buying into that one, but ok. I didn't see any news about him hiring new coach, which probably means he will not have one in Bucharest. That might be challengeing situation for the 18 year-old player.
I would probably take Stak here anyway, because I noticed that Borna lacks focus in some of the smaller tournaments, against unatractive opponents.

[larry040681]

Sergiy Stakhovsky @1.96 Pinnacle 3 units
Of course, you can't be too thrilled about Stakhovsky on clay, but this is more of a Čorić fade play.He separated with his fitness coach few days ago and now with his "head" coach Zeljko Krajan as well. With explanation that Krajan wants to spend more time with his family... Not really buying into that one, but ok. I didn't see any news about him hiring new coach, which probably means he will not have one in Bucharest. That might be challengeing situation for the 18 year-old player.
I would probably take Stak here anyway, because I noticed that Borna lacks focus in some of the smaller tournaments, against unatractive opponents.

Coric is something. nice play in the 3rd set entering tiebreak.