[nikossf]

Tennis betting study suggests 23 pro matches a year could be fixed


An average of 23 professional tennis matches could be fixed each year, according to a study that found suspicious patterns in three matches at Wimbledon.

As reported by Bloomberg News, over 6,000 first round matches were analyzed on the men's and women's tour between 2011 and 2013, tracking betting market prices against the "correct" price determined by two predictive models. In 20 cases the study found the lines swing away from the model's price by between 16 and 29 percent.

The most unusual line moves occurred in three first-round matches at Wimbledon in 2011 and 2012, as well as one at the 2012 London Olympics. The names of players involved in the match were not included.

The study, written by Ryan Rodenberg, an assistant professor of Sports Law at Florida State University, and South Bend, Indiana-based professional tennis gambler Elihu Feustel, was published by the Journal of Prediction Markets.


Across the street Covers


Interesting to see Elihu Feustel mentioned here...

[Sam Odom]

Old news... remember the Russian scandal from 6+/- yrs ago

[jjgold]

[jtoler]

Dont worry about those kind of fixed matches, what's more important are the tanked matches which happen frequently, that's the same thing as fixed in my book even if the party involved doesnt have wagers on it.

[jjgold]

I'm sure some smaller matches are fixed but not a lot

Other than betfair hard to get a lot of money down

Pinnacle and matchbook are decent but not major


Easy to find match fixing using betfair

[nikossf]

Ever notice the sports which have higher tendencies to be fixed have lower limits as well....
hmmmm... vegas knows how to make money..

[matt1216]

I'd say tanked is the same deal as fixed. 23 "noticed/documented"matches were fixed lol. I bet it's in the hundreds.

[brodie]

there are about 23 fixes every couple weeks if not more. tennis is the easiest sport to fix

[daringly]

I'd say tanked is the same deal as fixed. 23 "noticed/documented"matches were fixed lol. I bet it's in the hundreds.

23 per year is what you can detect using one method, before the match is played.

[Plaza23]

At some of these smaller tourneys where the prize money is low, couldnt a player make more money betting against themselves (especially in the 1st round), than attempting to win?

[matt1216]

There's a clear fix going on in the Thompson match right now... I'm fcked. Thompson serving up 3-0 3rd set gets broken twice back to 4-4 then he breaks Back to make it look legit. You look for the signature double faults serving for the match... Broken again wtf

[matt1216]

Just broke back Thompson serving 6-5 for the match.....

[matt1216]

Miracle hold for a 2-1 sets win. What a shit show

[FoxMulder]

I think match fixing with or without the knowledge of the opponent is more common than people think. If they investigate challenger and ITF circuits, they'll find more suspicious patterns in some matches. It's difficult to prove though. If they are just investigating heavy volume bets, they are missing the point. I long suspected that some of the challenger players (e.g. Volandri, Dutra Silva) asking for their family and friends bet against them when they are heavy favorites and share the profit after they lose. There's no other way for some players to "make ends meet" as they put it in the article.

[FoxMulder]

By the way I believe most of the abnormal swings in said tournaments are directly related with player talent rather than fixing.

[Optional]

23 per year is what you can detect using one method, before the match is played.

Rosol v Dodig at Wimbledon '12?

[Hardcoar]

There's a clear fix going on in the Thompson match right now... I'm fcked. Thompson serving up 3-0 3rd set gets broken twice back to 4-4 then he breaks Back to make it look legit. You look for the signature double faults serving for the match... Broken again wtf

How is this a clear fix? Is there any evidence whatsoever to even suggest a fix?

[matt1216]

How is this a clear fix? Is there any evidence whatsoever to even suggest a fix?

You know it's hard to find real evidence for any fix, but when they take the match off the market at 90% of the books, wouldn't it suggest something is up?

ex) take a look at who Sjsling played this morning. 0-6 6-0 set? Let's be real here

[HatersGonnaHate]

i hate when people whine about matches/games being fixed. If they are or they are not who cares. All part of the game. If you are that worried about it then you probably shouldnt bet on it. Collapses happen...rallies happen...lack of effort happens...fixes i am sure they happen as well but its all part of the game. When you wake up in the morning do you feel excellent and ready to go everyday. I know some days i feel terrible and i am sure these players have those days as well and come out flat/lack of effort.

[Hardcoar]

You know it's hard to find real evidence for any fix, but when they take the match off the market at 90% of the books, wouldn't it suggest something is up?

ex) take a look at who Sjsling played this morning. 0-6 6-0 set? Let's be real here

No. I know that on the contrary it is easy to find real evidence for a lot of fixes.

If your statement is actually somewhat true, it might suggest something is up indeed. It could also be caused by lack of updates, various delays and injury concern (which are all far more likely than a fix).


Keep in mind though, I'm not saying it was no fix either.

[PharaohUB]

Tennis betting study suggests 23 pro matches a year could be fixed


An average of 23 professional tennis matches could be fixed each year, according to a study that found suspicious patterns in three matches at Wimbledon.

As reported by Bloomberg News, over 6,000 first round matches were analyzed on the men's and women's tour between 2011 and 2013, tracking betting market prices against the "correct" price determined by two predictive models. In 20 cases the study found the lines swing away from the model's price by between 16 and 29 percent.

The most unusual line moves occurred in three first-round matches at Wimbledon in 2011 and 2012, as well as one at the 2012 London Olympics. The names of players involved in the match were not included.

The study, written by Ryan Rodenberg, an assistant professor of Sports Law at Florida State University, and South Bend, Indiana-based professional tennis gambler Elihu Feustel, was published by the Journal of Prediction Markets.


Across the street Covers


Interesting to see Elihu Feustel mentioned here...

This could also just mean that injury information was leaked to a few sources, but not to all, and some people benefited from it. It doesn't mean there was match fixing by the players themselves. I buy the fixing in challenge level events, and maybe some ATP. But Wimbledon. Hell no. These guys aren't losing a chance at losing the money or a losing a match at wimbledon

[shari91]

23 fixes in a year. Cute if you were Stevie Wonder and/or never watched a tennis match.

daringly, I realise you only started to bet tennis less than two years ago - although somehow that's now made you a pro tennis gambler haha - but you can do better than this. Seriously wtf is this rubbish. If your "one method" can only detect 23 a year and you've now self titled yourself a pro tennis gambler, then I suggest you may be involved in the wrong sport ffs.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

FLORIDA STATE? Cmon.

[MoMoneyMoVaughn]

Not the place to gather data from when making your decisions. This could have been Jameis Winston's reasearch.

Before or after he stole those Sea Cucumbers? We will never know.

(double post. had to roll with it.)

[matt1216]

No. I know that on the contrary it is easy to find real evidence for a lot of fixes.

If your statement is actually somewhat true, it might suggest something is up indeed. It could also be caused by lack of updates, various delays and injury concern (which are all far more likely than a fix).


Keep in mind though, I'm not saying it was no fix either.

Yeah I agree with the injury stand point as well. I didn't look at it that way.

[SirtySree]

If you lose a bet, the match is 100% fixed. The gamblers mentality.

[daringly]

23 fixes in a year. Cute if you were Stevie Wonder and/or never watched a tennis match.

daringly, I realise you only started to bet tennis less than two years ago - although somehow that's now made you a pro tennis gambler haha - but you can do better than this. Seriously wtf is this rubbish. If your "one method" can only detect 23 a year and you've now self titled yourself a pro tennis gambler, then I suggest you may be involved in the wrong sport ffs.

Hope things are treating you well. How many fixed matches can you ID with a single method? I haven't heard of any peer-reviewed methods coming close to 23/year before the matches are played. There are obviously many more fixes/tankings, but each group has a different method. The lowest-hanging fruit (which my paper attacked) looked at obvious fixes/tanking where only a single player was required, and he/his consortium simply bet significantly on his opponent before the match began.

[JAJDJGA]

SHARI, Elihu is a pro. He has a huge bankroll and a good ROI. You clearly did not understand the picture here. They used one method and addressed the obvious fixes according to that method. You don't even understand the method and the context. Read his reply to you at least 15 times and maybe you will eventually see the light.

[Al Masters]

Trick is to be on the right side of the fix!

[Al Masters]

Easy to find match fixing using betfair

Can you find me one in the near future?

[cankid]

I think its more

[Big Bear]

all sports are fixed to some degree

[sneakerhead]

It aint so!

[Snowball]

I think there's probably 5-10 thrown matches per week
more or less.. it's common but not so prevalent that it should be
the top thing to worry about.. we still have to guard against it as
much as possible, it's a contingency similiar to wind on outdoor
matches.. wind can really throw off a favorite. I think there are certain
types of players much more likely to throw matches for money..

More Likely:
1) established players who have peaked professionally.. on the downslide
but still receive favoritism by oddsmakers. The Challenger/ATP combo
player who only has mediocre chances to win tournaments.
2) early-mid round matches more likely to be thrown than quarters/semi's
because by the time quarters arrive player can win big enough prize money.
3) men more likely to throw than women.. they have more responsibility and
family pressures on them.. also, men usually have more connections with the
seedier side of sports, and gambling, or organized crime.
4) over 25's... more likely to have the financial pressures, connections, and
realistic expectations for their careers than teenagers/early 20s who still "believe".
5) asians less likely.. generally they are cleaner than caucasians. most asians
have a strong work ethic and personal morals that wouldn't allow them to think about
throwing a match unless dire circumstances demand it. blacks also less likely than
caucasians due to pressures on them to be visible stars in tennis for the black community. but this doesn't mean older, jaded blacks who have peaked won't throw, for example Donald Young.

thus, safeguards against losing due to thrown match include
- player with realistic chance to win tournament.
- later rounds in tournaments with good prize
- player hasn't peaked in career
- player is social media whore indicating big ego
- asians
- youth
- win/lose streaks, situational or geographic motivation

[tommygun]

def fixes on the challenger and itf circuits, those players make bugger all money