[sluggy1616]

Pros

Robredo is still riding the high of upsetting Joker in Cincy

Robredo is historically a very tough match up for Stan.

Stan beat Robredo for the 1st time at the A/O this year. Stan had a head on straight that tournament. Since then Stan has been an unqualified disaster.

Robredo is the craftiest dude on tour to adjusting in match(see Nick Krygios match)

If anyone can get into Stans head and upset Stan's play in the match it is Robredo

4-1 H2H for Robredo

Cons
Robredo is older and if Stan is on he might be able to pull it out

Conclusion:

At this price Robredo is an auto play for me

[brodie]

robredo not out of gas yet? idk about this one

I like the over 39.5 if you think robredo stands a chance. you know he'll leave it all on the court regardless. I could see this going 5

[sluggy1616]

robredo not out of gas yet? idk about this one

I like the over 39.5 if you think robredo stands a chance. you know he'll leave it all on the court regardless. I could see this going 5

Stan is no baby chick at 29. And we see how much a walkover helped old Ferrer today. He was gassed and not used to the conditions. Stan last played on Wednesday!!! that is a long time to be off.

[matt1216]

Sluggy, Stan Destroyed Robredo in the Aussie open.... Robredo is a mental midget like Stan at times.... I agree with Brodie, the over is the better play if you think Robredo wins. You do realize Stan was a set away from the finals last year here... FYI In the last two hardcourt slams, Djokovic has been the only one to eliminate Stan, both matches ending in 5 sets. Pretty impressive.personally I think Stan takes Robredo to the cleaners, he is rested. Maybe a rusty 1st set by Stan

[SirtySree]

^ Robredo just came back from a serious injury when he played the Aussie Open. Other then that, Robredo has a 6-1 record against Wawrinka.

Robredo is not a mental midget. In my opinion, he is the calmest player on tour after Federer and rarely ever gets rattled.

However, as mentioned Wawrinka has the ability to turn it up in big matches. He is the only one on tour that can play a whole 5 setter at a higher level then his normal level. Everyone else only lasts a set like Kygrios did.

[matt1216]

^ Robredo just came back from a serious injury when he played the Aussie Open. Other then that, Robredo has a 6-1 record against Wawrinka.

Robredo is not a mental midget. In my opinion, he is the calmest player on tour after Federer and rarely ever gets rattled.

However, as mentioned Wawrinka has the ability to turn it up in big matches. He is the only one on tour that can play a whole 5 setter at a higher level then his normal level. Everyone else only lasts a set like Kygrios did.

You are right about that injury he was coming back from but that 6-1 head to head record was when Stan was not in or even close to the top 10. Confidence changes a lot..... Also, refering to Robredo not being a mental midget? How about that match vs Andujar in Brazil? Guy didn't even show up. He's playing well right now but I have seen many times where Robredo just dosnt show up. How about Robredo vs Mahut 2 weeks ago? How about Robredo vs Olivo 1.13 Favorite, losing in straight sets 2 months ago? Robredo is a straight up in trust worth POS.

[SirtySree]

Everyone has bad losses here and there as mentioned previous in many threads. Calling him a mental midget cause of a few losses would make every single tennis player a mental midget.

A mental midget is someone who in-game goes crazy after a few points goes against them and they start shouting/smashing rackets and goes on to then get rolled.

Robredo always plays every point like a new point regardless of the scoreline.

[sluggy1616]

You are right about that injury he was coming back from but that 6-1 head to head record was when Stan was not in or even close to the top 10. Confidence changes a lot..... Also, refering to Robredo not being a mental midget? How about that match vs Andujar in Brazil? Guy didn't even show up. He's playing well right now but I have seen many times where Robredo just dosnt show up. How about Robredo vs Mahut 2 weeks ago? How about Robredo vs Olivo 1.13 Favorite, losing in straight sets 2 months ago? Robredo is a straight up in trust worth POS.

Robredo wont tank a grand slam. He would have done that last night.

Matt I do appreciate you bringing up the hard court slams!! Looking back the last few years Stan has been a tough out. I have bought back a few units of risk.

I appreciate everyones responses!!!

[kenz]

Robredo +4 @1.93

Wawrinka played ridiculous on their clash @Australian Open but still he was too godlike to make a -4.5 there 6-3 7-6 7-6. Robredo covered that games handicap line. Now Wawa is barely beating scrubs, I like this +l+ ine, but I think Robredo can also take this.

BOL sluggy

[matt1216]

Robredo +4 @1.93

Wawrinka played ridiculous on their clash @Australian Open but still he was too godlike to make a -4.5 there 6-3 7-6 7-6. Robredo covered that games handicap line. Now Wawa is barely beating scrubs, I like this +l+ ine, but I think Robredo can also take this.

BOL sluggy

Good luck Kenz. I have noticed lately, guys coming off night matches, have not faired well in day matches. Or have started slow. Federer is a prime example. Coming off a night match to a day match in Toronto, he shit the bed vs Tsonga. He did it again today by dropping the first set to Granollers befor blasting him in 4 sets. Sharapova coming off a night win, she started extremely slow today, and she paid for it. Wawrinka had some rest and I'm sure he had a long practice session in the heat. Robredo coming in on roughly 5 hours less time off than what he's used to, I think he's in trouble tomorrow.

[poet]

You guys know where I stand. Robredo is value here. He is not a mental midget. In fact, Jim Courier called him a mental giant. If you don't play your best tennis against him, he will expose you. I also think the heat will get to Stan before it gets to Robredo. Recall what happened to Stan in the 5th set against Djoker last year (he got tired, cramped up, etc). If this becomes a long grinding match Stan will quit, knowing he will have to beat Djoker and possibly Fed to win it all. In his mind, Robredo thinks he can beat all these guys (having beaten Djoker a few weeks ago and Fed last year) and that this is his best chance to reach a final. I see him losing to Raonic in the next round, but not tomorrow.

[matt1216]

You guys know where I stand. Robredo is value here. He is not a mental midget. In fact, Jim Courier called him a mental giant. If you don't play your best tennis against him, he will expose you. I also think the heat will get to Stan before it gets to Robredo. Recall what happened to Stan in the 5th set against Djoker last year (he got tired, cramped up, etc). If this becomes a long grinding match Stan will quit, knowing he will have to beat Djoker and possibly Fed to win it all. In his mind, Robredo thinks he can beat all these guys (having beaten Djoker a few weeks ago and Fed last year) and that this is his best chance to reach a final. I see him losing to Raonic in the next round, but not tomorrow.

Hmmm I like you're thinking in general Poet but Wawrinka can handle a 5 setter in the heat... Look at Australia. 5 set win over djoker. If Robredo goes 5 sets against a guy that can grind he will be completely exhausted. That match vs Bolleli will come back to haunt him. On another topic:

Raonic to beat Nishikori? Have you seen Raonic the past Month on hardcourts? He looks like shit at times, average at best. He lost to lopez in Canada. He has needed 7 tiebreakers to beat his last 3 opponents who are barely in the top 100. Look at Nishikoris last match Poet, that article that said he was hurt was Hoax. This guy has laid the beat down on his opponents. You know I'm from Canada and I would love to see Milos advance, but I think Milos is in deep Doo doo tomorrow. This is a night match as well Nishikori won't have any heat to slow him down.

[poet]

Hmmm I like you're thinking in general Poet but Wawrinka can handle a 5 setter in the heat... Look at Australia. 5 set win over djoker. If Robredo goes 5 sets against a guy that can grind he will be completely exhausted. That match vs Bolleli will come back to haunt him. On another topic:

Raonic to beat Nishikori? Have you seen Raonic the past Month on hardcourts? He looks like shit at times, average at best. He lost to lopez in Canada. He has needed 7 tiebreakers to beat his last 3 opponents who are barely in the top 100. Look at Nishikoris last match Poet, that article that said he was hurt was Hoax. This guy has laid the beat down on his opponents. You know I'm from Canada and I would love to see Milos advance, but I think Milos is in deep Doo doo tomorrow. This is a night match as well Nishikori won't have any heat to slow him down.

I like Nish in that match as well, and I agree about Raonic. My only worry is he (Nish) looked like he was running out of gas the other day against a very poor opponent. Raonic can't break and Nish can, not to mention all the other things he can do. Nish is the play at + money but can hang for 4 or 5 sets? The guy is always breaking down physically, which worries me.

[SirtySree]

Has anyone actually ever seen Robredo tired? Swear the dude grinds out long 5 setters on clay and hardly breaks a sweat.

[poet]

And yes, Wawa has played in the heat and won, but that was a career defining match (a rematch he had been thinking about for months). The circumstances are different here. If Robredo gets up early and really pushes him I can see Wawa getting frustrated and giving up.

[SirtySree]

Robredo at Paris last year. Down 2 sets to Sijsling, comes back to win. Next match down 2 sets to Monfils, comes back to win. Following match down 2 sets to Almagro, comes back to win.

Fatigue is never an issue with Robredo. If he loses, it will be because Wawrinka out played him.

Also the above shows how he isn't a mental midget. Most players would've given up.

[matt1216]

I like Nish in that match as well, and I agree about Raonic. My only worry is he (Nish) looked like he was running out of gas the other day against a very poor opponent. Raonic can't break and Nish can, not to mention all the other things he can do. Nish is the play at + money but can hang for 4 or 5 sets? The guy is always breaking down physically, which worries me.

Yeah I have this one at 4 or 5 sets as well.

[poet]

Robredo at Paris last year. Down 2 sets to Sijsling, comes back to win. Next match down 2 sets to Monfils, comes back to win. Following match down 2 sets to Almagro, comes back to win.

Fatigue is never an issue with Robredo. If he loses, it will be because Wawrinka out played him.

Also the above shows how he isn't a mental midget. Most players would've given up.

Exactly!

[matt1216]

Robredo at Paris last year. Down 2 sets to Sijsling, comes back to win. Next match down 2 sets to Monfils, comes back to win. Following match down 2 sets to Almagro, comes back to win.

Fatigue is never an issue with Robredo. If he loses, it will be because Wawrinka out played him.

Also the above shows how he isn't a mental midget. Most players would've given up.

Thats true, I was trying factor in the heat and the -5 hours or so that he may lose due to start time. He is super fit, so it shouldn't be a big issue.

[matt1216]

Robredo at Paris last year. Down 2 sets to Sijsling, comes back to win. Next match down 2 sets to Monfils, comes back to win. Following match down 2 sets to Almagro, comes back to win.

Fatigue is never an issue with Robredo. If he loses, it will be because Wawrinka out played him.

Also the above shows how he isn't a mental midget. Most players would've given up.

I hate to be that guy SirtySree, but look at the three names he came back vs and tell me what they all have in common? And I watched that Almagro match, If you even threaten to come back on that guy, he folds like a cheap tent. Sjsling is a goof, and that Monfis match was probably the legit match.

[SirtySree]

I hate to be that guy SirtySree, but look at the three names he came back vs and tell me what they all have in common? And I watched that Almagro match, If you even threaten to come back on that guy, he folds like a cheap tent. Sjsling is a goof, and that Monfis match was probably the legit match.

All three you could say are mental midgets but the point I was getting across is that fatigue is never a factor for Robredo and that no matter the scoreline, he will always fight on so he's not a mental midget.

In fact, Robredo has a life time record of 16-4 in 5 setters. 7-0 in his last 7 and if it wasn't for Novak, he would be like 10-0. Don't think anyone is even close to that.

[poet]

While Kyrgios got off to a magnificent 5-0 start, Robredo’s patience proved to be the difference in the latter stages of the match, as he closed out the contest 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-3 in 2 hours and 28 minutes.
“I think that he was playing so good at the beginning,” said Robredo. “He was hitting every ball. When I was a set and nearly 3-0 down, I was believing that I could turn it around. To believe that on a moment like this, I think it’s experience.
“When you play in a centre court like this, and you are losing like this, you are getting smaller, smaller, smaller. Sometimes it’s really tough to come back. I did it. I think that experience helped me a lot. And the passion of the sport. I just wanted to win, fight till the last ball. That’s what I did. In the end it paid off.”

[matt1216]

All three you could say are mental midgets but the point I was getting across is that fatigue is never a factor for Robredo and that no matter the scoreline, he will always fight on so he's not a mental midget.

In fact, Robredo has a life time record of 16-4 in 5 setters. 7-0 in his last 7 and if it wasn't for Novak, he would be like 10-0. Don't think anyone is even close to that.

Wow, didn't know that about Robredos 5 set record. Pretty killer. Point proven. Good luck on whoever you go with. I still think Stanimal gets it done. I know he may not be tired, but it's somethin about those night matches to day matches. It's seems to slow players down so far

[SirtySree]

Wow, didn't know that about Robredos 5 set record. Pretty killer. Point proven. Good luck on whoever you go with. I still think Stanimal gets it done. I know he may not be tired, but it's somethin about those night matches to day matches. It's seems to slow players down so far

Good luck to you too. Personally I won't have a play unless it goes to a 5th set and then I may put a bet on Robredo based of his record plus Wawrinka is only 5-5 in 5 setters in his last 10 altho a few was due to Novak.

I like the current odds on Robredo tho as i think he should only be a small dog.

[fitguy67]

slug, sirty, matt, & poet...

i really appreciate the panel-discussion from you guyz on this page...definite sbr "page of the year" nominee...

(one for each of you)...and four hours from now it's time...

i'll be watching with a splash of Robredo ML...at these prices it's an auto-play

[Snowball]

Good luck Kenz. I have noticed lately, guys coming off night matches, have not faired well in day matches. Or have started slow. Federer is a prime example. Coming off a night match to a day match in Toronto, he shit the bed vs Tsonga. He did it again today by dropping the first set to Granollers befor blasting him in 4 sets. Sharapova coming off a night win, she started extremely slow today, and she paid for it. Wawrinka had some rest and I'm sure he had a long practice session in the heat. Robredo coming in on roughly 5 hours less time off than what he's used to, I think he's in trouble tomorrow.

definitely something to watch out for.
Concerning this match, Robredo is actually 6-2 not 6-1 vs Wawrinka. There is no doubt he can win but it's
more likely Wawrinka does, hence the line which is correct... either Stan will roll up 2 sets or it's a nailbiter
with tiebreakers and 7-5's for 4 hours .. sounds like torture.

[matt1216]

definitely something to watch out for.
Concerning this match, Robredo is actually 6-2 not 6-1 vs Wawrinka. There is no doubt he can win but it's
more likely Wawrinka does, hence the line which is correct... either Stan will roll up 2 sets or it's a nailbiter
with tiebreakers and 7-5's for 4 hours .. sounds like torture.

Yeah, good call. I know Stan has been a bit of a flake through the year, but he has shown that he's is ready to go on his favorite surface. Had he found away thru Djokovic here last year, who knows he maybe still unbeaten on Slam hardcourts. Good luck to everyone. Should be a interesting match. I still think Stan will blast Robredo.

[fitguy67]

noone on this page is saying Wawrinka shouldn't be the favorite...but Robredo @2.9/+190 implies he has less than a 35% chance of winning...come on, the true Stan/Tommy coin is weighted a hell of a lot lighter than the one the books are selling with 65% Stans...

betting isn't predicting outcomes...it's applied probabilty...saying yes to plays precisely like this is what puts coin in your purse over the long haul...and no matter what happens today in this one...the next time a similar mismatch between what you perceive as true coin-weighting and the one the books are selling comes along...you should train yourself to automatically snap it up...

such plays are usually dogs...so if you get in the habit of making your value auto-plays TO WIN (not risk...to win) a sensible $amount...it's actually very easy to pull the trigger cuz you're risking just a small amount in an attempt to "sneak" a full-fledged unit into your account...

dogs are hard to bet cuz people are used to thinking they need to risk at least a unit on 'em...so maybe you don't wanna risk a unit on Tommy here to win 1.9u...why not think of it like it'll only cost you 0.526 u for a chance to sneak a unit into your roll on a play that has a better chance of winning than the books are actually charging you for?

Hell, you think nothing of plunking down 1.9u on a big fave you like to win one unit ...so why turn your nose up at the chance to sneak that same unit into your account at a huge discount (and, of course, a concommitantly smaller chance of winning...hence the word "flier")...all things equal i prefer "fliers" like Robredo here to "nail-biters" (like, say, trying to add a unit into your roll last night by backing a Safarova who you were just sure would blast Peng)

[matt1216]

noone on this page is saying Wawrinka shouldn't be the favorite...but Robredo @2.9/+190 implies he has less than a 35% chance of winning...come on, the true Stan/Tommy coin is weighted a hell of a lot lighter than the one the books are selling with 65% Stans...

betting isn't predicting outcomes...it's applied probabilty...saying yes to plays like this is what puts coin in your purse over the long haul

Im not so sure Fitguy, most of these "so called smart guys" are factoring in most of his matches this year. I think he has a whole diffrent approach in slams "that he knows he can win" I think his hangover from winning the AUS open will finally subside a bit. He was a set away from the finals here last year. If this was any other tournament, I would consider this closer to 50/50.

[ManeOnFire]

noone on this page is saying Wawrinka shouldn't be the favorite...but Robredo @2.9/+190 implies he has less than a 35% chance of winning...come on, the true Stan/Tommy coin is weighted a hell of a lot lighter than the one the books are selling with 65% Stans...

betting isn't predicting outcomes...it's applied probabilty...saying yes to plays like this is what puts coin in your purse over the long haul

edit. q. answered

[Bumdeal]

on Robredo ML

[fitguy67]

Are you still using flat stakes?

flat-targeting...which is a hell of a lot different than flat-risking

my risk-amount (aka "stake") varies a lot a lot...but the TO WiN amount is the same

______________

-190.........risk 190 to win 100 (expensive ticket to win a unit)...the high-probability of winning but nail-biting road
+190.......risk 52.60 to win 100 (cheap ticket to win a unit)...the low-probability of winning but low-stress road

_______________

when you bet on a fave (which is supposed to win) and it surprises you and does what it's NOT supposed to (aka. it loses)...it's time

when you bet on a dog (which is supposed to lose) and it does what it's supposed to (aka. it loses)...big fukkin' deal, no surprise and only pocket change is lost...

but when it (say Robredo this afternoon) surprises you and wins...it's

____________________

i take undervalued faves when i see them...but thankfully they're much harder to find than the far easier to "take"--financially and psychologically--undervalued dogs...as i see Robredo here...

win or lose this afternoon it matters not...Robredo at +190 (implied 35% win-rate) is the right bet...the one you should habituate taking, even tho' you don't like it because you start out expecting (& correctly so) that it will lose...but the "surprise" wins happen often enough over the long haul to make this kind of bet "good for you"...just like eating spinach or liver regularly is good for you over the long haul even tho' you hate it each time you do it

_____________

a little o.526u splash on Robredo will score you a full unit if we get a "surprise" result (not a very big one really, given all the discussion above, even ignoring their h2h) ...and if it doesn't...you'll hardly miss it...can't say the same about bets on a big fave that don't work out (as anybody who tried to build bank on a Ferrer or Safa investment yesterday can tell you)

[Hardcoar]

Robredo will win.

[FoxMulder]

Combining over 39 with Krunic +1.5h Sets.

[Hardcoar]

Robredo could kill him in three though. That's what has me worried about the over.