[Snowball]

Cindy Burger 1.75/1

[Snowball]

Linzer, Smith 1/.93

[Snowball]

Burger lost a tight 3-setter.
Adding to Linzer, Smith by another .81/.75

[Freeeco]

Linzer on his way back after droping first set

[Snowball]

doesn't matter, i've been distracted by other sports and nursing some big parlays
that has my tennis head off kilter somewhat.. and the fact there is nothing except
ITF to bet on (without much of a selection even in ITF terms).. makes me think I
should just take the lumps from losing a good part of my tally - like a degenerate
stretching for action.. when there is so little real tennis being played. it's just stupid.
for example today i knew Cindy Burger isn't Ms. Reliable but still took her. I knew
Connor Smith and Mitchell Krueger are total amateurs but still bet. This is stoogatz.
Smith got past Bangoura, and I saw he was 1-0 vs Krueger earlier this year.. and that,
LAUGH AT ME - today is his birthday. doh. tally down to +6.24.

[Freeeco]

C.Smith cost me a fortune today...

[Freeeco]

Linzer should easily close it down now. Got price a 5/2

[Snowball]

Arcangioli .55/.35

[Snowball]

tally +5.69

ITF Pune
Magdalena Frech .45/.63

[beefcake]

Stay good buddy. Get those ladies. Malla is my play at +130 in Santiago tomorrow!!

[Snowball]

Lama 2.4/2

[AboutThatLife]

Have Linzer for $50 at -115 to victor go the spoils - Lama seems to be winning the strategic points the difference in this match.

[Snowball]

Lama should have won this..
ITF has been so brutal to me this break. Not like the regular season
ITF.. the vacation ITF.. unreal.. but i think my bad luck streak is over
(was just broken on another play) so I would not recommend going
against my next pick.

[JC1186]

Some very interesting odds on Pirfilov against Jankovic in ITF Turkey.

Pirfilov went from 8.20 to 2's and being pulled everywhere.

The match has just started. 1-0 to Jankovic.

Be interesting to see how this one plays out. Not televised unfortunately.

[Snowball]

that is strange. i looked that one over and also Santiago matches but
didn't feel strong enough to take anything. just went to check scores
and ITF site is down.

[Snowball]

sorry guys, i just can't resist.. I know he doesn't deserve it
but I'm going to back Fognini in Thailand over Isner.
i see that matchup in 2012 went to 3. thing is, Isner i think has
lost some since then, and Fabio hasn't. 2014 was a better year
for FF than 2012. But really I just think FF won't have a hostile
crowd to deal with and if he can just hang a little vs Isner's serve,
then he's going to win more of the volleys.. much more athletic player
who has an edge here vs the stilt Isner if he can make use of it.
Here's his latest tweet.. he looks loose.. him and his future wife..

Fognini +130 1.5/1.95

[Snowball]

winning work by Fabio.
it took a while for him to get any handle at all on Isner's
serve.. but he did.. then took the 1st and was down 0-2 in the 2nd only to even it up then
break Isner again for the win. Isner couldn't touch Fabio's serve either. If Isner plays like this
in Australia he is vulnerable to the top players who can return. He's really just a servebot
with no other game, as we know.

[Snowball]

these lines have gone up a tad since i first saw them early yesterday
but i see no reason to think they won't win their matches.

Wawrinka, Murray 1.25/.83

[Snowball]

Tally +5.62

Andy and Stan won. Definitely some changes in Andy's play today. More "aggression".
Which was somewhat hit or miss.. I think the regular Andy would have won this match
more easily.. he appeared to be taking more unecessary chances than usual, testing out
some new strategies which included hasty net advances out of nowhere and risky shot attempts.
Not sure how much of this he'll be willing to experiment on when it really matters yet. Andy
will be a risky player to take for some time if he's really in the process of reinventing.

Kania, Brengle .5/.51

[Honeybadger44]

Nicely spoted. I also noticed much more aggressive Murray, who looked to put away every short ball, which he received on the forehand side. As you said, it might be only a test, to see how this works, but I wouldn't be surprised if he decides to take more risk in his game. He has to change something to challenge those top 3 players.

[Snowball]

yes, so we need to be careful with Andy and watch what he's doing.
The true test will be as he advances in rounds,
does he revert back to the safer method, or continue ?

I'm going to take a chance on some Genie over Safarova in the Hopman Cup.
You know she's geared up to win for Canada, and although the match is a tossup
this could be the beginning of a great year for her, if only she can beef up her serving
game esp. the second serve, since she also has a prob with DF's.. but she's probably
been working on that during the break.

Bouchard .5/.5

[kenz]

I liked Safarova +1.5 games @1.96 but now she is the fav.

Safarova More experienced with Fed Cup games, experienced in indoor and watched their H2H in Canada when Safarova won. Is this court slow indoor or fast?

[noober]

not indoor

[Snowball]

yes, it's outdoor in Perth, although the stadium is protected.
besides the two bets above (see Brengle odds go up ?)
I'm also playing a parlay in Hopman Cup of
Radwanska, Janowicz, Cornet .. this is cross-team and won't play out until Monday.
.41/.48

by the way the weather is forecast to get extremely hot come Sunday/Monday
something to keep in mind for some of these players. not sure if it will happen
but a high of 108 Farenheit Monday ?

[Snowball]

Tally +6.13 (Kania and Brengle won)

pending:
Bouchard .5/.5
Radwanska, Janowicz, Cornet .41/.48
Pouille, Krunic .9/.89
Podlipnik 1st Set .24/.4
Podlipnik 2nd Set .25/.4
Kania 1st Set .2/.54
Kania 2nd Set .2/.54
Brengle, Putintseva .32/.4
Hernych, Linette .19/.44

[kenz]

winning work by Fabio.
it took a while for him to get any handle at all on Isner's
serve.. but he did.. then took the 1st and was down 0-2 in the 2nd only to even it up then
break Isner again for the win. Isner couldn't touch Fabio's serve either. If Isner plays like this
in Australia he is vulnerable to the top players who can return. He's really just a servebot
with no other game, as we know.

Thinking about Fogna again in Hopman Cup?

[Snowball]

no, kenz.

add: Bouchard/Pospisil, Janowicz vs Ebden U 22 .4/.7

[Snowball]

Pouille went down in 1st round to a Uchiyama who ranks 293.
surprising.
what i'm going to do here is add Johanna Konta. line goes off at 10:15 est.
Konta 1.16/.9

[Snowball]

bad day.. Pouille upset, Castillo lost set in tb, Konta lost 3 setter with tb,
Krunic won, i had her alone but didn't post it because it was too late to add.
just such a huge card across events.. first outset of the year so you really
don't know what form these players are coming off break with. quite a few
players i almost took but didn't won, and those i did lost. be careful early in
the rounds especially this early off break. let the players wake up. some worked
harder than others during break, there is no way to tell. it will all even out in a
few weeks. then there's the travel effect. homers seem to be doing better.
probably not a good time to bet too much on tennis yet.

Tally +2.67 pending:

Bouchard .5/.5
A. Radwanska, Janowicz, Cornet .41/.48
Bouchard/Pospisil, Janowicz vs Ebden U 22 .4/.7
Simon, Stephens, Davis .35/.7

[Snowball]

Donna Vekic 1st Set .25/.35
Donna Vekic 2nd Set .25/.35

[Snowball]

tell ya i've just been getting toasted. this is the iffiest part of the year and i shouldn't
have even bothered betting anything. first it was the amateur lowest level of the ITF
now it's the pros coming back but not in form. it's a 50/50 crapshoot which of these
players is back in form yet. Janowicz won but dropped a set to Ebden, pushing that over.
He didn't wake up until the 3rd set, and when he did, he 6-zipped Ebden. Bouchard was
utterly horrid. So horrid she even blew the doubles match. Stick with only the most
consummate, mature pros for a while. Keep in mind the travel isn't only about time zone
now, it's about temperature.. many of these players are going from winter weather
to warm, humid weather which only makes the return to tennis more difficult.
Vekic is still too young to be reliable. She worked out hard in the offseason but
hasn't mastered the game enough to consistently beat savvy smart pros like Diyas.
Anyway I still have the Simon, Stephens, Davis going and Cornet over Watson.
The odds on Simon and Stephens make them not worth adding to at this point so I'm
going to add to Lauren Davis.
Why is because I think she's a better player than Shelby Rogers and Rogers is coming from
Canada, Davis from San Fran. Davis is much more mobile than Rogers. She is in better
shape physically.. very powerful small body.. she should win this match and is only -130
so I'll take a shot with her and lay into it. She's a rank riser who never gives up on a match.

Davis 2.6/2

[Dmoneytx]

tell ya i've just been getting toasted. this is the iffiest part of the year and i shouldn't
have even bothered betting anything. first it was the amateur lowest level of the ITF
now it's the pros coming back but not in form. it's a 50/50 crapshoot which of these
players is back in form yet.

Which is why I am waiting to hit tennis & start my new thread

[Dmoneytx]

Best of luck though until the AO starts.. We should have a good feel for who is in form & in shape motivated to play

[Snowball]

thanks Dmoney -
one of the best years in tennis has started.
appreciate your input - watch the matches. (livetv.sx/en, sportcategory.org, stopstream, etc)
that way you can put your knowledge of the game to the most work.

[Snowball]

Tomic over Querrey live +191

.3 wagered