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SirtySree's Favourite's Down a Set Betting Thread
Been testing this for a while now and found it to be the most effective betting method for me personally.
Gonna post some up as they occur. Going to be hard to follow as they r live plays but shouldnt matter as doubt anyone will tail at this point in time.
Doing this more just for fun and personal tallying for now.
All plays are on bet365.
Matteo Donati @3.5 down a set 6-3.
Seems interesting. GL, will be following.
Thanks man. Good to see you back posting plays. Will be keeping a keen eye on that too.Originally Posted by Marillion
Eikeri @2.62 down a set 7-5
No Betfair or Matchbook?
unfortunately not. use to hav some money around the place but decided just to keep it at one place nw
even after commission, betfair or matchbook is far better than bet365 although 365 offers far more markets.
i personally use betfair and matchbook but slowly shifting more to matchbook cuz bf is charging me outrageous 6.52 commission, god damn robbers
i think il stick to 365 since im use to it already and the odds will only b a bit better if i did change. also as u mentioned, there r more markets which i like
not looking great atm bt good thing about this is one win and will b back. only need to hit at like 33% to b even.
pauffley @2.37
prob last play of the night. getting rolled atm, happens every time i post my plays. wtf is up with that lmao
tig @5 (hasnt lost back to backk matches in almost a year but got bagelled 1st set here)
(btw panova is 1/15 break points atm lol and bout to lose ffs)
I got wrecked in this thread lmao but believe it or not, I ended up being up a few units with wins to fed, rice, kerhove, witthoeft and a few more plus few more losses in alund, donskoy and prob also a few more.
Therefore, I will carry on this thread cause i personally believe in this method but since my wins werent posted, they wont count to the thread obviously bt main purpose of the thread is to aware ppl that there is value wen the fav goes down a set.
0-5 -5 units
Ito @2.05 against Escobar who is at home and crowd getting into it but Escobar's record at home isnt actually that good and talent wise, Ito is much better.
Ito bout to take 2nd set in quick time.
Ninomiya @3 down a set and 1-0 2nd set. Not gonna lie, never seen either play but going of pure stats only.
I dont usually bet on players ive never heard of unless stats suggest it to be a big mismatch which in this case it did but didnt turn out the way i thought it would b
1-6 -4.95 units
Sirtysree
This thread will work better with quality players + quality tournaments.
Shitty players might not fight hard if they lose the first set when they are playing shitty tourneys on the same week with Wimbledon
thanks kenz for the input but im already doing well even with wimbledon going on but just the thread thats nt going well since i didnt hav all my picks in.
i havnt really noticed a difference in players in top 100 playing big tourneys and say 300 players playing their usual tournaments. both hav same amount of comebacks in my opinion and odds usually better with less known players to the public
also just for interests sake, here were my remaining plays last night that werent posted/counted towards the thread (i wont b posting plays i make off my phone). usually there r like only a third of these types of plays bt yesterday all the dogs decided to win the 1st set or match.
LOST: alund @4, dzumhur @3, knapp @2.62, donskoy @2.1
WON: kanepi @2, rice @2.25, kerkhove @4.33, mitu @2.25x2, witthoeft @3.4, fed @1.9, begu @3, ward @2.05
stojanovic @1.95. value is a bit lower than i would like bt she has made comebacks for me before
been busy last two days so didnt hav any bets bt will resume.
1-7 -5.95 units. record doesnt really mean much to me, was down a few more units infact on the last day i posted bt didnt hav them up here. my main purpose is to show ppl there is money to b made in situations like this altho this thread hasnt exactly shown that lol bt if needed, go to tennislive.net and look up scenarios like these. lots of money to be made
Garin @2.05
EDIT: dnt wana keep adding on new posts so just going to edit
kania @7, ridiculous price
EDIT2: ugh kawa is injured so hoping for the retirement. also lol at cohen choking yet again, she is on a mean losing streak and chokes wen up a bunch of matches
uberalova @4
matteucci @4.33
pfizenmaier @5
bagnis @1.8
Last edited by SirtySree; 07-05-14 at 07:47 AM.
I was very, very close to taking Cohen and do not even know why I refrained from doing so. Wow, what a choke. As for Kania, Allertova is on a sick winning streak, so I didn't touch that.
yea allertova is on an insane run bt i couldnt resist the value tho.
3-11 -5.57 units.
bagnis pending
There is currently a match between two players, one of them is called Gaylord and he's down in the first set. I'm not backing him!
^ did he win haha? saw the score was close in the 2nd but y would anyone srsly call their kid that. just setting them up to b bullied
3-12 -6.57 units. many comebacks yesterday but either i missed them or werent posted.
nancarrow @5.5
edit: zopp @3.4, stiglich @2.62, garcia-vidagany @2.05, simic @2.75
stig was actually taken wen down a break and he came back to win the set. was actually down double break and was waiting for him to lose the set bt couldnt wait any longer wen he came back. he won 6-2 6-2 previously so i assumed he was a lot better (yea ive never actually heard of either but the other guy has won like 5 games in his career).
disappointed i missed out on laaksonen as my judgement was clouded wen haafmann won yesterday against Elias and also missed Suarez who i usually like betting on bt just the odds were never that great.
Last edited by SirtySree; 07-06-14 at 05:40 AM.
better night for the thread and also good night overall for me too. got majority of my plays up except for a few. pretty much every fav down a set came back today bt i missed a few
7-13 +2 units
should hav a few more coming up tonite real soon. will keep them all in this post aftr tho for the nite
EDIT: hogenkamp @3.5, ilhan @2.37, ramos @2.25 down a set and 3-2 on serve
İlhan might not be interested even tough he wasted tons of bps in 1st set.
I had a thought process between Kern +4 and Marsel ML and decided to go with Marsel but he might not be motivated.
Not over-familiar with his game but he actually has a ton of comeback wins so im quite comfortable with this bet and he has comeback to win this year after he got bagelled in the first set. Currently start of tb in 2nd set so hopefully Ilhan can pull through.
He had 2 mini breaks in tiebreak but blew it.
Old Marsel, did not want to play today
^ sad loss that one =/
vaisse @4, got it after the first point of the 2nd set cause i was a bit slow and lost 50c on it. posting this wen up 3-0 tho cause of the wimbledon final so wont count it to record if he wins/loses
well vaisse just did a novak. broken to love serving for the game and then with 2 match points in the tiebreak loses 4 points in a row to lose the match
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