Originally Posted by
baconbets
math is the refuge of indecisive gamblers. if you need to "check the math" before you bet, what you are really saying is "im not sure." every bet on an individual sport (like tennis or boxing) should flow from actual visualization of the match, in your mind. if you cant pick a clear winner from that, you either arent that familiar with the players involved in the match or you dont have a strong feeling about how they match up. the result is you should skip the match.
the true yet misleading premise that begins every mathematical approach to gambling is "every game has a winning outcome, therefore i should bet as many games as possible." gambling is not a standardized test (something else asians are good at), which means MOST LINES SHOULD BE SKIPPED. the reality is that the most successful gamblers are those who go really big a few times a year on bets they are comfortable with. by comparison, most of the people on this board, including those with long-standing pick threads, generally provide updates like "i went 9999 -10000 this year, -.05 units." why bet a million times just to be flat at the end of the year? chip in for fun on the plays you dont have a strong feeling about. go big (meaning all in) a few times a year. research matters but math only gets you so far.