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Who said serve and volley was dead? Matsui doing it on every single serve including 2nd serves.
3-3 1st set at the moment but looks like it will be a long day for Ymer. His weakness (serve) is getting helped by the speed of the surface but all his strengths are nullified. No time to plant his feet to use that backhand of his and Matsui cutting down his time even more by coming to the net every point, even against serve.
Ymer loses 1st set 7-5. Don't think I can make a play here. Court looking too fast for him and Matsui cutting down his time even more.
Update on Mikael. He has qualified for the US Open Juniors tournament. Don't see anywhere that offers any lines for it unfortunately.
Elias also has a match in China against Duckworth. Line going up for Ymer already as it should due to the match being on hardcourt.
Unlikely to be playing Ymer here unless I see something from the surface that changes my mind but typically Asian hardcourts are on the faster side.
Putting $100 down on Ymer @3.4. Seen enough to suggest that the court actually isn't that quick and Ymer will out rally Duckworth.
Might put a bit more down later. See it as a coin flip as the surface is playing almost like clay but with lower bounce.
I've put down 2 units on Ymer to take the first set. Let's see if he pulls through
Just as he gets broken. =.="Originally Posted by FoxMulder
Horrid service game there.
Was worth a shot, Duckworth was more like duckshit last week in bangkok
Still think Ymer can come back and take this. Duckworth serving too well at the moment but don't see it lasting the whole match. Ymer just needs to keep holding serve until Duckworth has a service game where he misses his first serve.
Ymer gets the break. Duckworth serving unreal and playing one of his better games this year while Ymer is playing one of his worse.
He could easily win this if he steps up his level a bit.
Ymer takes the 2nd set. Still play well below his best and something seems to be bothering him today as he's very agitated. Duckworth still serving well but his level of play has decreased.
Ymer will need to do the same thing in the 3rd set if he wants to win. Just keep holding serve and wait for that 1 service game where Duckworth misses his 1st serve as Ymer is winning most of the rallies.
Elias got bagelled in that last set. His head wasn't in the match as mentioned earlier despite taking that 2nd set. Never seen him like this but he was agitated early in the match and threw a few tantrums which is a first that I've seen. Even decided to have a pointless argument with the umpire about something non-related to the match just before he was to serve for the set. Could be due to him having problems getting into China as he mentioned on Twitter but that was days ago.
Anyways, for now I think I will leave Elias alone on hard courts as it's clearly not suited for him.
On the other hand, Mikael has made it to the 2nd round of the US Open juniors.
Just another update on both these future stars.
As mentioned about Elias, he was obvious agitated and rattled in that match. He just made a post on Twitter about the mess.
"This trip couldn't get any worse.. Problem vi sa, friend going home , hospital, losing stuff, didn't put one ball in the court, lost baggage".
On the other hand, Mikael is into the last 16 of the US Open juniors. Only 15 year old left and majority of the others are 17 or 18. Think he loses here though as he's versing a pretty good opponent.
Also in that Elias match, just before he was to serve for the set, he was talking to his box in the stands and got in an argument with the umpire over something. Then after the set, he rushed out of the stadium for something. Thought was just a toilet break at the time but looks to be more then that as when he got back, he rushed thru the last set to lose 6-0.
Mikael with the shock win! Into final 8 but now I think he really loses against an opponent who I personally think will be an ATP players in a few years and possible top 10 player later on.
Update.
Mikael lost as expected but result was much better than I expected.
Elias has a Davis Cup match against Copil in Romania and is listed @2.75 roughly. Initial thought was Elias can take Copil but after watching the Lindell match on right now, the surface is way too fast and will play to Copil's advantage. That being said, 2.75 isn't a bad price but I won't be playing it personally as I don't like the surface speed or bounce.
Odds on Ymer going down closer to game time. With Lindell winning, I think Ymer will be extra pumped and motivated. Really tempted to put a bet down as despite the surface, can still see him taking this match.
Forgot to mention Ymer struggled against the serve and volley style of Matsui before so will be interesting to see if he's done anything to counter that strategy.
Well... that was horrible to watch. Three matches on the rout where Ymer's game has just turned to crap.
Think he'll need to go back to Future events for a while just to get his confidence back as right now, his strengths are non-existent and his weaknesses are as bad as ever.
Ymer up 3-0 early against Ungur. Game looks much better today and helps with Ungur not being as big as a server.
M. Ymer loses today to Arvidsscon I. in two sets 6-7 6-7, 2nd set he lose from 5-3
Yea been following Ymer this tourney. Been doing way better than I expected. Was @2.75 in his first match and chalk the 2nd. Was @3.75 if I remember correctly today against Arvidsson who is a Davis Cup player for Sweden, so did extremely well. Should've won both sets but inexperience probably cost him in the end.
Thought it would take at least 2 more years before Mikael overtakes Elias but looks like a good probability he'll overtake him within the next year.
Elias almost @4 against McGee earlier today and won in straight sets. As mentioned, he looked better against Ungur despite the loss so good to see his form back.
Sam Querrey is next. Querrey's 1st serve will frustrate Ymer but Ymer will love that 2nd serve of Querrey. Querrey should win comfortably but Ymer is capable of the upset if Querrey is off with his serve.
No odds up yet for Elias but for another one of my favs in Alex Bolt, cant believe he is @3.4 against Novikov. He's down to about 2.6 at some books and I reckon he should be the favourite and that the current odds are flipped wrong way around.
Well looks like I wasn't the only one thinking the line was way off for Bolt. Pretty much at evens now and wouldn't be surprised if he became the fav by game time. Real strange opening line on that one.
As for Elias, he's a big dog as expected and Querrey is pretty much chalk. Not sure why he is playing in a challenger event though but maybe his motivation levels will be lower and Ymer can sneak an upset. Hopeful thinking that though.
Bolt ended up winning as expected but a bit closer than I thought. Ymer came close to beating Querrey but just fell short, although that was probably his best game of the year.
Bolt plays Millman next and I would say Millman wins. During Ymer's match, Millman was in commentary and talked about Bolt and seems like he understands his game well. Pretty much anyone who hits to Bolt's backhand and avoids his forehand ends up winning but most players don't seem to do their homework on Bolt to realise.
No odds up on Millman/Bolt yet but I expect the books to set it near evens. Anything about 1.7ish for Millman is a good price in my opinion.
millman 1.44/bolt 2.83 at pinny...so it's a pass or maybe a value-splash on bolt, right?
btw, having a chalky-bet on querrey is the ATP version of a chalky-bet on stosur...
maddening beyond words their tendency to engage in timely self-sabotage...(i picked up a reasonably-priced 1.5 ticket on sammy-boy...and it was exactly like sweating a sammy-girl tickey...i'll NEVER play either as faves again)
agree with your assessment...until young Ymer gassed in the 3rd he was as consistently sharp as i've ever seen him
Last edited by fitguy67; 09-25-14 at 11:24 PM.
I think the line at the moment doesn't represent much value either way. Definitely too low for Millman and pretty fair for Bolt in terms of value. The only reason why I'm not giving Bolt much chance here is because of what Millman said in the interview. He seems to understand Bolt's game quite well and every single game that I've watched of Bolt, anyone who just hits it consistently to his backhand ends up winning comfortably. Surprising how often I've seen players continue to hit to his forehand by not researching Bolt's game. Same goes for Ymer, players keep hitting to his backhand when clearly his forehand is his weakness.
I think Querrey will end up winning Napa though because it's his hometown and he seemed pretty determined to win today.
whatever happens in the TB/rest of match...file this Millman/Bolt encounter in the "easier said than done" department...
i threw millman in a 3 x 2-leg round-robin with two othr reasonably-expensive faves (donaldson & mathieu)...so didn't really cost me...but was interesting to see how the old sports-dichotomy: sound-strategy (the x's and o's on a whiteboard) vs. execution (real-time/real-game conditions) played out...
Last edited by fitguy67; 09-26-14 at 04:27 PM.
Yea, unfortunately I didn't get to watch the match so I have no idea if Millman did execute the plan of just hitting to Bolt's backhand. Despite not reading the game correctly, the positive is that one of my favourites ended up winning if that's any consolation.
Querrey is next for Bolt and I still believe Querrey will win this tourney but I will try to watch this one and will be cheering for Bolt as I did with Ymer. Not a big fan of Querrey at all.
Australian summer of tennis is beginning and this is where I tend to make a lot of my money.
Jasika @evens against Kelly is insane value. Expect the odds to drop soon and he should be like @1.4. The remaining matches in that tourney are chalk and pretty much agree with the lines.
I know this has nothing to do with Ymer but I feel like just keeping my thoughts on matches in the one thread.
Jasika match about to start and odds are @1.5 so about where I think it is fair.
Jasika exploding after up a set and a break.
Well that's what you get with youngsters a lot of the time. Lost 12 of the last 14 games after dominating before that.
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