 SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks |
Best Sportsbooks List
|
|
| |||||
| #1 FanDuel | SBR rating 4.8/5 | Review | #6 BetRivers | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review | #2 Caesars | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #7 Fanatics | SBR rating 4.1/5 | Review |
| #3 DraftKings | SBR rating 4.7/5 | Review | #8 Betway | SBR rating 3.8/5 | Review | ||
| #4 BetMGM | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #9 Borgata | SBR rating 3.5/5 | Review | ||
| #5 bet365 | SBR rating 4.6/5 | Review | #10 ClutchBet | SBR rating 2.9/5 | Review | ||
Add
Ferrer +145 - qtr unit
I must be wrong because everyone is on Bird Dick. I just can't let it go though. I watched some of the Berdy/Druzmers match. Birdy's footwork was crap. He was constantly out of position and just looked like he was having trouble moving. Ferrer has played some quality guys and has gotten himself out of scrapes time and again. I think he does it again today. Keeping the bet small because I'm on my own island with this and am probably most likely wrong.
Fat boy came through for me!!! Time for bed.Originally Posted by sluggy1616
A/O -0.1725
No plays for me tonight. Rafa has screwed me both betting for and against him so I'm done with him. Plus who knows what will happen with those blisters.
Fed/Murray. Would lean towards the under, but there are a lot of different ways this match could play out so no bet.
Play tonight:
Feds -127 - 1 unit
I looked back at both Murray and Feds past matches. They have both played some crappy guys. Every match Murray played his winners to unforced errors was almost even. Feds matches have almost always been 2 winners for every unforced error except for the Duck worth match in the 1st round.
In the Tsonga match Fed had 43 winners and 21 unforced.
In the Murray/Robert match Murray had 48 winners and 47 unforced.
At this price and with these stats I feel I have to take a shot at the Fed money line. Going 1 unit which is higher than normal because these stats say alot to me about how the match will end up.
a/o +0.8275
Want to see if I can blow more of my small profit
Parlay: berdy/wawa over 3.5 sets+ rafa -2.5 +175 - half unit
I think Berdy/wawa could be close. I even think Birdy has a chance here. He was killing the ground strokes against Ferrer. He was hitting the ball so hard it was skidding off the surface and staying low. Joker hits the big top spin so Wawa had a nice high target. Wawa is going to have to bend down and he wont be able to get too much power on these balls. Ferrer was able to hang in because he is just that good on the ground.
The ass piker part. I hate the guy. I was thinking Fed earlier in the day but decided I would jump into some stats. Rafa has owned Feds recently and beat Feds very convincingly in the year end championship semi finals match. Rafa was dead tired at this point. He had lost to Ferrer the tournament before and got his ass handed to him by joker in the final. I think Nadals fatigue and the hand injury take/took away equivalent fire power from Rafas game. Rafa still got the job done. I think he does it again tomorrow. He might not be at his best but he will find some way to win.
Open Parlay- 2 teams -1/2 unit
1st part: nadal/fed set won over 3.5
2nd part: will do the over 3.5 on the final at whatever price it is
Stan the man +450
Lots of the price in this line is based on history. I think Stan has shown us that you can throw some history out the window!!!
Robredo owned Stan but yet Stan prevailed.
Joker owned Stan but Stan won again.
After each big win Stan points to his head. Maybe he has found some therapist that is helping him overcome these mental blocks that were in his game in the past.
Now I move to the present:
Stan has won all of his matches.
Nadal has survived most of his matches. Nadal didn't beat Fed. Fed beat Fed.
Given both players current form/health if they both played at their peak I would give the edge to Stan to win the match.
Throwing history out the window and given both players current form I favor Stan 55% to 45%.
It's hard to deny Nadals past/current awesomeness but I'm going to. I think Nadal has a bit of a drop off in this match and Stan gets this done!!!
Half unit on match
a/o: +3.45
ytd: +2.88
[DAVIS CUP] Soeda -115-1/2 unit
Tailing EP Go is money when he plays in Asia
I got -120
ytd +2.28
2.5.14
Daveydenko +160
Lajovic +535
Nedovyseav +315
Przysieczny +225
All are qtr unit bets.
I think Davydenkos wife is gonna hold back the sex from this guy until he starts winning again. I saw an article at or right before the A/O where it looks like he is giving up. I saw another article a few years ago that said his wife didn't want kids cause it would get in the way of his winning. This little bald dude worked his ass of so he could get a hot chick. Now he has her so he gets lazy. She ain't gonna put up with it. NOBODY is better on a fast indoor court than Davy when he gives his all.
The other picks are stabs in the dark. Its early in the season, no one is in full form yet. Anything can happen. These matches are much closer then the odds imply.
1-3
YTD +1.93
Gonna stick with overs where it makes sense. Too many toss ups with players not in form and these super fast courts.
2.6.14
Tursonov/istomin over 22.5 - 125 -1/2 unit
These guys have played a lot this year already. Given the fast service I probably wouldn't make this bet if Tursonov had a match under his belt this tourney. I'm counting on him to start out slow from the gates with the over hitting because of this.
Kohlschreiber -3.5 -130 -1/2 unit
Kohl played some really good tennis in the davis cup. He also played an incredible match against Isner earlier in the year where Isner got in around 87% of his first serves. Kohl was able to hang tough for a thiller.Last match against Gublov, Hanesucue had 10 break point chances but only converted 2 of those. Mr Kohlschriber will have a much higher conversion ratio and hopefully should win easily.
Add
Davedenko -4 +110 - half unit-
Davvey wants mo puntang from the wifey. He will(needs) to continue to play well. Who is Olivetti? Nobody. Davy takes care of business easily here
Last play
Foggy+ del bonner -170 - 1 unit
These dudes rock the clay
Serves 257.5 km/h (160 mph) bombs
the John Isner of France
Last edited by Bet10Heinekens; 02-05-14 at 11:26 PM.
I remember watching Olivetti the other day, first time. His opponent was standing so far back he was out of camera shot. Plus there were times where the opponent barely got his racket on Olivetti's 2nd serve which was pretty impressive.
It is with great sadness that I am announcing the retirement of my thread.
I suck at this!!!
YTD -0.27
Actuall you're slightly above neutral at this. You're down less than the bookmaker's margin, which means you're up relatively speaking.
Thanks Man!!! That makes me feel better. I'll keep playing and keeping an offline log and offering opinions in other threads when I feel I can add value. I just don't want to get in the way(have nubbies think I know what I'm doing and tail me) of the good work that alot of you guys do(you included).
Ya I suck, but I like doing this so I'm back. If Stephannak can make a come back why can't I?
Lesson learned on 250's- don't bet before the semi finals
I haven't made a play yet but I'm really going to take a long look at Monfils against delpo. Last year at this tourny, Monfils was ranked 107 when delpo beat him. I forget what injury monfils had suffered but that ranking is super low. He is in superb form right now and I have to say that 1st set I saw him play against Nadel at the A/O was probably the best tennis I had seen in a few years. Those guys were blistering those shots. That's why Nadal got blisters they were hitting so hard. I will keep looking but right now Monfils is a stud. The guy has so much talent and has been able to keep his mind in the game. If Monfils can keep his mind in this game Delpo could win but he would need to be playing great tennis and giving his lack of matches this year I don't think he can produce. So its really not about what Delpo does it what Monfils does in this match-up. Right now I think I have to roll with the current trend
YTD -0.27 (i had a parlay where I bet 1 unit to win less than that but I did not state that ahead of time so I will keep my record as is)
Got a lean towards Verdasco also over Haas. I just hate betting Verdasco. the guy is so frustrating. He plays up or down to the talent across the net. If the guy could play consistently at his top level he would be in the top 6.
2.12.14
Monfils +175 - half unit
Monfils/delpo over 23 -120- half unit
Verdasco +110 - half unit
I usually don't bet the 1st round of tourneys but I'm gonna lay some cash out this time.
If delpo can beat Monfils by hitting 3 days before playing Monfils after being unable able to hit for 20 days prior to that I will go give delpo my money. He will have earned it. I think if delpo is gonna win it will have to be in 3 sets. Hopefully monfils winning and the over hit together.
For verdasco just taking a stab. That dudes got to wake up one day and realize he aint getting any younger. He needs to give it his all now. Hopefully this is the day.
Well that sucked.
The books were dialed in with these lines. My spidy senses are off. Going to tighten up and only play matches I feel very strongly about until if/when I get on a roll.
Only betting qtrs on in 500's and semi on in 250's. Might play 2 or 3 player chalk parlays risking 'x' units to win less to hopefully help get me back some lost cash. I will also paper trade the earlier rounds to try to improve my form for this year. Like the players, us cappers are trying to improve our form early on in the season. I'm trying to stay in the game long term and win money. I'm kinda glad today I lost because I broke one of my rules.
No 1st round bets!!! No exceptions, no excuses!!!
YTD: -1.87
chalk parlay
murray+bird dick+delpo : 1 unit to win 0.3 units
2.14.14
bird dick to win- risking 1 unit to win 0.39 units
I aint gonna lay the chalk on this one. Jerzy serving well not facing break points. If both players play up to their normal standards bird dick wins. If Jerzy hot, bird dick not, jerzy could win.
Going sit the semis out
YTD:-1.18
Just a self reference here for when I review my log:
I really want to bet bird dick -200. He had an awesome A/O batteling Stan to 3 tie breakers in a 4 set match. The only reason I'm laying off is the same reason I bet Stan in the A/O final. Gulbis is beating tough guys and maybe he is making the same kind of run Stan did. Its still early in the season and there's still lots of tennis left. If it was later in the season I would be riding Bird dick hard. I will sit out and see what happens.
2.21.14
F.Lopez -2.5 -120 - 1 unit
lopez has been playing well. He had 12 break chances against Querry so he will get chances against Johnson.
Johnson saved 9 of 12 break chances against Haas. He got lucky. He will be broken a few times tomorrow. Johnson also only won 76% of his 1st serve points in his first round against a weak opponent.
I'm gonna do it to myself...
2nd play
Foggy -3 -120 - 1 unit
I know Foggy's tired. A true clay court specialist will beat a scrub hard court dude even on a bad day. Foggy will get this done.
Last play
Mahut +165- 1/2 unit
I just got a good feeling about Mahut. He is a streaky player. When he gets on a roll with that serve he is a tough out for anyone. In Rotterdam he lost to Bird dick 6-4 6-3. Thats better than Gulbis did. Plus Mahut is French. These french dudes work super hard when they play in front of the home fans.
Dolgo +3 - 110 - 1 unit2nd play
Foggy -3 -120 - 1 unit
I know Foggy's tired. A true clay court specialist will beat a scrub hard court dude even on a bad day. Foggy will get this done.
Matt and EP think dolgo can win. Time to back out of my Foggy bet.
Reply With Quote
