1. #281
    Hardcoar
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    Chardy 3-0 @ 11 – 3 units (William Hill)

  2. #282
    Hardcoar
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    Wozniacki @ 1.91 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)

  3. #283
    Hardcoar
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    Wozniacki is going to bring about the public burial of the entire public... you just watch!

    P.S. GOD DAMMIT CHARDY THAT'S A BAD CHARDY!!!

  4. #284
    Hardcoar
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    Svitolina 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)

  5. #285
    Hardcoar
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    Robert 3-0 @ 7.5 – 5 units (William Hill)

  6. #286
    Hardcoar
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    Halep 2-1 @ 7 – 2 units (William Hill)

  7. #287
    fitguy67
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    #62, B-Agut has dominated #28 in H2H (4-1 in matches, 9-1 in sets, 63-44 in games) and 6-3, 6-4 just days ago in Auckland...

    even at current 1.50-ish level, my uneducated eye sees some value in Agut

    i think this is where it'd be useful to consider other ways to play this as well, such as Agut, 1st @1.60-ish
    or perhaps Agut -a few games
    ______
    what's your take on this situation where the higher ranked player (something the more-casual GS-betting public would notice more than the H2H methinks) has been owned by lower-ranked one?
    Last edited by fitguy67; 01-17-14 at 04:28 PM.

  8. #288
    Hardcoar
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    I think this one is so tough for a betting prospect... take a look at the odds of their last encounter at matchstat.com and consider what that tells. Both players come off demanding five-setters although ol' B-A is obviously the more physically (and mentally, let's not forget) fit of the two combattants. I personally don't like giving too much weight to the "signature-win-let-down angle" but I always love myself some Pear-dawg (that is to say Paire as a betting prospect being the underdog). I wouldn't touch B-A 1:st though, since Paire is the most likely to win earlier sets if you ask me. Maybe the over, although as is always the case, I am terrible at calling what is a good line and what is not. Live action should be good too!

    Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.

  9. #289
    sluggy1616
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    I think this one is so tough for a betting prospect... take a look at the odds of their last encounter at matchstat.com and consider what that tells. Both players come off demanding five-setters although ol' B-A is obviously the more physically (and mentally, let's not forget) fit of the two combattants. I personally don't like giving too much weight to the "signature-win-let-down angle" but I always love myself some Pear-dawg (that is to say Paire as a betting prospect being the underdog). I wouldn't touch B-A 1:st though, since Paire is the most likely to win earlier sets if you ask me. Maybe the over, although as is always the case, I am terrible at calling what is a good line and what is not. Live action should be good too!

    Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.
    I think I saw your French before. You must be getting sick of seeing people bag on the French players. I really like French people. The culture is wonderful and the people are so relaxed. I would bet that all of these French players are more happy than their foreign counter-parts and will live to be much older than these other guys. When I bet on a tennis player I want them to be ruthless like Nadal. I want to bet on the guy that would beat his grandma if it would help his pocket book and ranking. I think many others think like me. I apologize if my comments come off as sounding like French bashing. I don't mean it to come out like it sounds.

  10. #290
    Hardcoar
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    Never gets old!

  11. #291
    Hardcoar
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    Robert @ 2.38 – 10 units (William Hill)
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: lucasdawg

  12. #292
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Also, on a personal note, please try to distinguish between games and sets. I hate it when Americans f*ck that up (it's always Americans, for some reason). Not to mention, it's pretty important.
    Thanks for the insight, HC...

    I clearly meant "matches...sets...games" and not "matches...games...games"...in fact i'd just noticed and finished editing that second item before reading your response. I'm a stickler for logic (and the proper terminology it depends on) as well, and very few of my posts go unedited for typos...including this one.

    I guess if i was born a few miles to the south, on the gun-toting side of the border I wouldn't give a damn...and would be "waiting ON" an injury report before deciding something, etc. etc.

    But you have to be flexible...
    *money-line/match line
    *1.833/-120
    and other intercontinental differences in terminology amount to the same as "tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to" and some people saying your baby is "long" instead of "tall" etc...as long as we understand each other, no need to correct different ways to skin the same cat/express the same meaning
    _________

    that being said, i must mention the one thing that irritates me more than anything is
    replacing the word "have" with "of"...as in "I should OF bet the over instead of the handicap."...Typing "apostrophe-v-e-space" is actually the same amount of work as "space-o-f-space"...your American tennis-pro SBR buddy was a world top-ten in that department (and in the use of upper-case and exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!WTF!!!!!!!)
    Last edited by fitguy67; 01-17-14 at 05:51 PM.

  13. #293
    stepanekslips
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    Thanks for the insight, HC...

    I clearly meant "matches...sets...games" and not "matches...games...games"...in fact i'd just noticed and finished editing that second item before reading your response. I'm a stickler for proper terminology as well, and very few of my posts go unedited for typos.

    I guess if i was born a few miles to the south, on the gun-toting side of the border I wouldn't give a damn...and would be "waiting ON" an injury report before deciding something, etc. etc.

    But you have to be flexible...
    *money-line/match line
    *1.833/-120
    and other intercontinental differences in terminology amount to the same as "tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to" and some people saying your baby is "long" instead of "tall"...as long as we understand each other, no need to correct different ways to skin the same cat/express the same meaning
    _________

    that being said, i must mention the one thing that irritates me more than anything is
    replacing the word "have" with "of"...as in "I should OF bet the over instead of the handicap."...Typing "apostrophe-v-e-space" is actually the same amount of work as "space-o-f-space"...your American tennis-pro SBR buddy was a world top-ten in that department
    I always pictured you as Nic Cage type character just so you know.

  14. #294
    Hardcoar
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    Monfils @ 8 – 3 units (Bet365)

  15. #295
    Hardcoar
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    Cornet @ 7 – 3 units (Bet365)
    Cornet 1:st @ 5 – 3 units (Bet365)

  16. #296
    Hardcoar
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    Nishikori -7.5 @ 1.91 – 20 units (Ladbrokes)

  17. #297
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by stepanekslips View Post
    I always pictured you as Nic Cage type character just so you know.
    note to self: check out Nic pics as candidates for next avatar!

    _____________

    HC, nice hit so far on Robert...would be nice if Monfils has some more of that "magique francaise" for us in a while.

    LOL that someone thinks you're French...i have you pegged for German/Dutch/Austrian, maybe even Swiss...any closer?
    Last edited by fitguy67; 01-18-14 at 01:47 AM.

  18. #298
    Hardcoar
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    I'm a citizen of the world in truth. I feel at home nowhere and everywhere. I love all human beings by default, until they piss me off which tends to occur frequently.

    I like flaming on online forums too, especially when people deserve it.

    Oh... now I get it! The guy must think I'm French because I bet on Robert and Monfils. No sir – those bets were placed because they're good. I don't care one bit for nationalities.

  19. #299
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Robredo @ 3.25 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
    KEXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Zheng 2-1 @ 5 – 4 units (Bet365)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Chardy @ 3.5 – 5 units (William Hill)
    Chardy–Ferrer over 38.5 @ evens – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
    FUXX
    FUXX

    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Monfils 1:st @ 4.33 – 3 units (Bet365)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Davis 1:st @ 3 – 4 units (Bet365)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Chardy 3-0 @ 11 – 3 units (William Hill)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Wozniacki @ 1.91 – 3 units (Ladbrokes)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Svitolina 1:st @ 3.4 – 4 units (Ladbrokes)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Robert 3-0 @ 7.5 – 5 units (William Hill)
    KEXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Halep 2-1 @ 7 – 2 units (William Hill)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Robert @ 2.38 – 10 units (William Hill)
    KEXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Monfils @ 8 – 3 units (Bet365)
    FUXX
    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Cornet @ 7 – 3 units (Bet365)
    Cornet 1:st @ 5 – 3 units (Bet365)
    FUXX
    FUXX

    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Nishikori -7.5 @ 1.91 – 20 units (Ladbrokes)
    KEXX

    Total hits: 65
    Total mishits: 102
    Total stake: 682u
    Net yield: +94.492u
    ROI: +13.86 % (rounded)

  20. #300
    Hardcoar
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    Bitches of both sexes (except DAVIIID!!! himself) choking on DAVIIID!!!'s DIXX all over the place.

    I know this is probably where some might say I shouldn't be complaining. Well... f*ck 'em! I like complaining if it's all for a good cause!

  21. #301
    Hardcoar
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    Dellacqua @ 3 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
    Dellacqua 2-1 @ 6.5 – 3 units (Bet365)

  22. #302
    Hardcoar
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    Makarova 1:st @ 3.4 – 5 units (Ladbrokes)

  23. #303
    yatescutler
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    could you please explain your staking, sometimes you bet 3 units, then you decide to put 10 or even 20 units on a single play.
    i assume its the confidence in the strength of your pick, but 20 units on nishikori -7.5 seems a bit of.
    i mean 20 fukkin units for a 7.5 games handicap, this looks a lit off to me but you won this pick nontheless.
    bravo!

  24. #304
    Rococo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    Dellacqua @ 3 – 10 units (Ladbrokes)
    Folowing you on this (not the amount of units though), good luck!

  25. #305
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yatescutler View Post
    could you please explain your staking, sometimes you bet 3 units, then you decide to put 10 or even 20 units on a single play.
    i assume its the confidence in the strength of your pick, but 20 units on nishikori -7.5 seems a bit of.
    i mean 20 fukkin units for a 7.5 games handicap, this looks a lit off to me but you won this pick nontheless.
    bravo!
    A unit is relative to the size of your bank-roll and it's up to you to decide just how much of it a unit of yours should make up. In my case the amount of units bet is related solely to estimated value and confidence (primarily the prior).

    A unit approximates to 1 % of my original bank-roll, but as the latter has grown by a large amount recently the proportions have become slightly skewed.

    I can't say I'm certain of what you mean by "lit off" but I had a huge wager on Nishikori covering -7.5 (as indicated by my post many hours before the match started) and fortunately it won. It matters jack shit how great the HC is, what matters is how likely I believe it to be covered (and that's im in the vicinity of right on average). As I've hinted to above, I bet this much of my money because I found him far more likely than 55 % of covering the spread. I rarely make write-ups as it's too time-consuming for me and would distract from actually finding good bets, but if anyone asks Jerzy shalt deliveth, and I do my best to answer as much as possible.

    If you're questioning whether I'm betting a lot more on that pick than most others, it's both insulting and illogical as far as I'm concerned. Why the flying f*ck do you think I'm posting in the first place? Why do you think I keep a record? Why do you think I use units? Why does it matter all the same? What difference does it makes? I'm not posting live or post-lines, and these are the picks I've made regardless and the results are written on the wall for anyone to see. My thread is by far the most verifiable and trackable I have ever seen on this board – or any other public one, for that matter.

    If you have some kind of issue with people who make certain wagers larger than others I would recommend simply maintaining a flat stake: Bet to win X units, or bet e units on every bet you make.

  26. #306
    Hardcoar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rococo View Post
    Folowing you on this (not the amount of units though), good luck!
    Dellacqua should be @ 2.4 at most the way she's playing in my opinion. My only concern is fatigue but I don't think it will factor in for this match.

  27. #307
    lucullus
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    nice call on nishi

  28. #308
    Hardcoar
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    I agree, but I was lucky it won. You would not want to be struck by bad luck on massive plays.

  29. #309
    1923
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    what is your reason Hardcoar for Dellacqua ?

  30. #310
    Hardcoar
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    Bouchard is slightly overrated in general having not performed well in slams and struggles with lefties statistically. Dellacqua is playing at home having an insane strike of form recently. My only concern (again) is fatigue, but with cooler conditions and BO3 with a two-day rest I'm not that worried – It's only RO4.

    Edit: RO 16 obviously... the fourth round.
    Last edited by Hardcoar; 01-18-14 at 01:49 PM.

  31. #311
    1923
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    ok thanks so much

  32. #312
    Hardcoar
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    Mayer @ 4.33 – 4 units (William Hill)

  33. #313
    Hardcoar
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    Bautista-Agut @ 2.62 – 3 units (William Hill)
    Bautista-Agut 3-0 @ 8– 2 units (William Hill)

  34. #314
    Hardcoar
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    Ivanovic +6.5 @ 1.9 – 10 units (Bet365)

  35. #315
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    I'm a citizen of the world in truth. I feel at home nowhere and everywhere. I love all human beings by default, until they piss me off which tends to occur frequently.

    .....

    I don't care one bit for nationalities.
    reminds me of one of my favorite quotations...

    "Patriotism is the refuge of scoundrels."

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