[EaglesPhan36]

South American unexpected QF @ RG to kick off your Memorial Day.

Chela has the Slam experience. A lot will point to his two Slam QF appearances, one here at RG in 2003. That is long ago in a Galaxy, Far, Far Away.

Falla is at his Pinnacle. This is the high point of his career, a total surprise. He sets new career bests with any win he gets. He had never made it past the 2nd round of a Slam before this year.

Falla won their only clay court meeting last May in Portugal. Chela beat him twice on hard courts in 2010.

So why in the fukk would you take Falla at +225 here against Mr.Experience?

Let's not forget that Chela had ZERO form on dirt before the Team Cup competition in Germany prior to the French Open. He was 2-4 on dirt before beating two Challenger level players, John Isner & Phillipp Kohlschreiber. He has parlayed that into four wins this week @ RG, but Smyczek, Anderson & Rosol are nothing special. He's dropped a set in each of his last two matches and barely beat Rosol in a 4th set tie break last round. Falla meanwhile made it through qualis and then took out clay courter Starace, form player Florian Mayer and then Kubot last round he scored the big scalp over Almagro in the 2nd round.

Bottom line here is Chela SHOULD win this match. He's got the clay court savvy, but he's a guy who is hit & miss. On his best days, he can challenge 90% of the ATP players on this surface. At less than that, he loses to guys like Adrian Mannarino & Olivier Rochus.

No doubt in my mind that there will be plenty of break chances in this match and the guy who is able to convert more and save more of his own will have an excellent chance to win this match. In a match-up that I don't think is anywhere near as big a mismatch as the odds suggest, Falla is the choice at +225.

This one is not stupid as fukk. It's fukking stupid because how in the world can a QUALIFIER/UNSEEDED make the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam?

Does not happen often, but this one looks a lot more even and I think will be a battle to the end. So fukk me with a Falla.

[wtt0315]

my girlfriend is colombian so i have been hearing about him winning so far. if he wins tommorow i might have to shoot myself.

[EaglesPhan36]

My condolences.


Falla has been a pretty useful sort for most of his career. He never gets too big a price and often ends up a nice dog like Monday ... hopefully.

[ha1ogen]

i like your analysis but going to stay away from this one

[DigBick86]

i was on falla agaisnt Kubot and when you say he need to take care of BP i get a lttle bit scared cause in that match he was 0/8 before he broke him,he got to passive at every BP, and i doubt he will get that many chances today and its 1/8 finals so he will be much more nervous.

Im gonna bet Bartoli,Trocki or Falla just havent decided witch one yet

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Falla is beatin Chela's ass.. Chela's jus playin like complete trash.

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

Chela finally startin to get his head in the game. I've watched this matchup from start to current as of right now and it's been like 3 hours already sets even 2-2... Falla was whippin chela's ass in the beginning and it looked like he jus couldnt keep up at all, but it looks like Falla's startin to tire out now..

[noober]

falla is falling apart

[EaglesPhan36]

Ah well. Getting to 5 sets at +230 was worth a gamble IMO. Really felt he needed to win that tie break last set and kind of expected this.

[beefcake]

Dont worry, LA mof will win..

[EaglesPhan36]

This one didn't bug me too much. It played out exactly how I thought it would with Falla having a chance, bu unable to close. That was the one issue I thought would be there, but still think it was worth a go. I don't think losing hurts me any more. It's expected.