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Barcelona will make it to the next round
There's a plot by UEFA to make Barcelona the first team to advance to the next round of the CL after losing by 4-0. That way, both Barca and Messi will be etched in history just like the Patriots were the first team to "overcome" a 25-point deficit to win the Super Bowl, thereby etching the Patriots and Tom Brady in history. The game is rigged folks.
Would be amazing but it's not happening
If you are correct about this which I highly doubt, I will send a edible arrangements to your casa.
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Barca can score 4.
but to score 6 if they concede...
I get that.Originally Posted by cashin81
In 2012, Chelsea lost the 1st leg of the QFs to Juventus by 3-0 and won the 2nd leg by 4-0 and advanced to the next round.
I see Barca winning the 1H of the return leg by 3-0 and then demolishing PSG in the 2H.
Barca goes through folks.
Last edited by Conqueror; 02-15-17 at 06:46 PM. Reason: 3-0
If Barcelona makes it to the next round, Champions League is rigged.
+900 to advance at one book. -2000 for PSG... only 1100 points of juice
1.07 PSG at Betfair, thatis what I was saying on the other thread, rarely you see values at 1.07 odds but here I clearly see a value. PSG will score one goal, and no way Barcelona will score six times.
Who the hell will bet on Barcelona at odds 14.0 anyway ? I would not below 30.0. (+30000)
In 2012 Chelsea never played Juventus, in fact, Juventus wasn't even in the Champions League that year. Also, Chelsea didn't lose to anybody 0-3 in ANY leg of any round that year. Do you even bother to take 3 minutes to check on things you obviously know very little about to avoid yourself embarrassing yourself like you did here?
I can only assume you are referring to the 2012 round of 16 (not quarterfinal) matchup where they lost 1-3 (not 0-3) at Napoli (not Juventus) and then won 4-1 (not 4-0) at home in extra time. Not only did you get every detail wrong, but losing 1-3 away is a LOT different then losing 0-4 away.
Pinnacle has odds of 12.5-1 on Barca going through, I'm assuming they'll take at least 1k bets on that before they adjust, so get down.
-2000/+900 is a 5% theoretical hold, which is slightly less "juice" then a -112/-112 wager. There is no such thing as "points of juice" (at least not the way you describe it), only a % rake on the theoretical assumption of money being wagered on the exact same proportion of the market chance of winning.
Hence, a bookmaker makes more "juice" on a -112/-112 line if the betting is 50/50, then he will on a -2000/+900 line if the betting is 90.5/9.5
Not convinced? Figure it out. Let's say they get $10,000 bet on both games. In game #1, $5,000 to win $4464 is bet on both teams. They (the book) will win $536 no matter who wins. In game #2, $9050 is bet on the -2000 favorite to win $450 and $950 is bet on the +900 dog to win $8550. They (the book) win $500 no matter who wins. (figures are rounded approximations for simplicity).
Pinnacle is offering Barcalona at +1259 to advance (-2150 on PSG). That's less then 3% "juice".
Last edited by indio; 02-17-17 at 04:59 PM.
Well, right off the bat, let me say that my "points of juice" was merely a figure of speech that I picked up from listening to Artie Lange. I could elaborate on that in itself but I'll save it. But your.... "interesting" reply has me curious.... in your example, where in the hell are you coming up with the perceived idea that the book is going to take 90.5% of the wagered $ on PSG at -2000, and only 9.5% of the wagered $ on Barca at +900? That works nicely for your example, but if you are trying to teach me a lesson about how there is "no such thing as "points of juice", so far you haven't convinced me yet of anything more than that you're full of yourself. What say you?
Not happening. 1 goal from PSG and Barca will have to score 6.
Arsenal are 40/1 to qualify
its almost like hitting one number on roulette... ive done that
At least Arsenal has that away goal. A 5-1 win by them will be good enough for extra time.Arsenal are 40/1 to qualify
its almost like hitting one number on roulette... ive done that
Are you retarded or something? Seriously. It's just basic math. -2000 is equal to 95.24% chance, +900 is equal to 10% chance. Total market is 105.24% That's 4.98% theoretical hold (5.24% of 105.24 = 4.98%). 95.24% is 90.5% of 105.24%. So if they got balanced action on the game (which all theoretical holds are based on), they would earn 4.98% of all money bet, and 90.5% of the money would be bet on PSG -2000. How much is actually bet on both sides of a bet is an unknown, hence, theoretical is what is used to calculate holds.
Dang! Thanks for the basic math, I can't believe I forgot all of that! Maybe I am retarded by your standards, but maybe you are socially retarded by mine. Peace!
Well, you're entitled to your opinions regarding social aptitude. Funny thing is though, I get laid by great woman, and you're typing away in your mothers basement, so, to each his own.
Didn't see anything happening here,all I see is a depressed Barca fan looking for comfort but you cant find it here.What you are asking is a miracle of Lazarus proportion but not sure if Jesus Christ like Barca football
Barcelona are in poor form anyway, miracle won't happen. I simply think they are overrated in general (I mean this season), odds take into account their past glory but this year no way they will make a come back to qualify over PSG.
PSG should be at 1.03 and not 1.07 IMO.
An early Barcelona goal will take it to 1.6 and will bash the books
All that hype about a comeback .... not happening
Do you see PSG sticking to the same game plan, or will they play more defensively, trying to protect the lead?
I think the chance of that is high.
Do you see Barcelona midfielders jogging back at leisurely pace after a turnover?
No way in hell.
These two facts combined tell me 2 things:
- PSG may score but it won't be more than 1 goal, and I'd say it's 50-50 they don't score at all
- Barcelona is going to get booked a lot, because their sense of urgency will be there unlike the first leg
So no, I'm not saying 6-1 is something I would predict. I'm just saying PSG scoring isn't something I would take for granted. They had a field day in Paris, they will get choked today.
2-1, 3-1 for me here.
Not happening. 1 goal from PSG and Barca will have to score 6.
There aren't many teams that can disrupt Barcelona at midfield, AND have pace upfront to convert when they get a turnover.
Atletico Madrid comes to mind immediately. The current version of PSG is on that level. Barca should win but covering any number is far from granted. Probably a scrappy game with 40+ fouls and 10+ cards, and a single goal Barcelona win. Barca saves face, PSG moves on deservedly.
Barca maybe gonna win game (2-1) but not qualifying thats for sure
Good start by Barca. History in the making.
Don't know about a plot BUT! somebody is definitely helping Barca as much as they can with that 3 1/2 minute added time in the first half. I stepped out for a minute so I might be missing something. Did the game get stopped at any point?
You may have a winner, what was Barca to advance +900? With the refs calling penalties like that one I can't help but think you may be right about a plot... WAW
Unreal! I think I saw close to +900 to advance. Is that right?
Book got burried lmao, easy +1000
I sprinkled some on +700 live in ET when it was 5-1.
I imagine the odds were ridic for them to qualify when it was 3-1 late....anyone got a juicy hit??
ok so barca lose 0-4 then a magic comeback 6-1, i didnt watched the game so maybe im missing something but doesnt this look like a NBA playoffs when its 0-3 in series then wonderful comeback from some popular team like miami/spurs/okc/lakers to go by so more ads/revenue and more money? modern eu football is so corrupt, just check the scandals from past decade. Barca is most popular team in the world they couldnt let them lose i mean i dunno, what you think ?
Yea Or like the Patriots being down 28-3 in the 3rd. epic collapse.
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