1. #1
    KATCHASE
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    Live Plays...0ver 0.5 Goals

    Just tracking...

    All plays bet to win 1 unit.


    21/8

    Live @ 35'
    Czech Republic » 1. Liga » Slavia Prague - Pribram
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.14

  2. #2
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 17'

    Israel » Ligat ha'Al » Maccabi Tel Aviv - Hapoe
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  3. #3
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 22'

    Portugal » Primeira Liga » Benfica - Setubal
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  4. #4
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 21'


    USA » MLS » Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  5. #5
    Stackzilla
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    Good luck, easiest way to make $$ imo I personally use the o1.5 strategy. Less juice, more risk but your strategy should win well over 80% of the time. Are you planning on trying o.5 on teams and not just the game? It's usually no juice live than o1.5 on the game.

  6. #6
    KATCHASE
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    I've just been focusing on and backtesting +0.5 on games, but I need to track live in order to get a feel for when most of the first goals are being scored and the average live odds at the time.

    My "First Tier" selection results over the past year (July/15 to July/16) that went over 0.5 goals was 1011 wins to 56 losses (94.7% win rate). In a perfect world where I was able to bet on every single one of these games before the first goal was scored, I would only need 1.06 odds to break even. Anything higher would be pure profit.

    I've managed to narrow down these First Tier selections further to games that can be considered my "Second Tier". Because there are fewer games which fall into this Second Tier range, I've managed to backtest them over the past two years. July/15 to July/16 results were 192 wins to 5 losses (97.4% win rate) and July/14 to July/15 results were 300 wins to 8 losses (97.4% win rate).

    I took a quick look at +1.5 goals on my Second Tier Games, and it looks like it's been hitting at about an 80% win rate. Pre-game odds for these games sit at about 1.20-1.25. I'll have to keep an eye on the live odds for these +1.5's.

  7. #7
    Stackzilla
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    I'm assuming your 2nd tier games have pre-match odds o3 1.89 or similar? If that's the case odds drop slowly at first then as the match goes on it gets to some great prices. For instance the Poland match right now Korona Kielce vs Wisla right noe o1.5 is 2.20 and both teams are producing some offense so you can assume o1.5 will hit then if you want to look into it deeper http://www.soccerstats.com has the best stats. Usually after 5 games into a league the stats become more clear and you can almost pin point when a goal will be scored. This is the stats for the Poland match.

    Scores at home
    4 - 1 1 50.0%
    1 - 1 1 50.0%
    Scores away
    3 - 1 1 33.3%
    2 - 1 1 33.3%
    3 - 0 1 33.3%

    Goal margins
    (at home)
    1 2 3 4+
    Wins 0 0 1 0
    Defeats 0 0 0 0

    Goal margins
    (total)
    1 2 3 4+
    Wins 0 0 1 0
    Defeats 1 0 0 1
    Goal margins
    (away)
    1 2 3 4+
    Wins 0 0 0 0
    Defeats 1 1 1 0

    Goal margins
    (total)
    1 2 3 4+
    Wins 1 0 0 0
    Defeats 2 1 1 0


    Home Away HOME / AWAY ADVANTAGE Home Away
    80% 20% % Points 100% 0%
    62% 38% % Goals scored 60% 40%
    20% 80% % Goals conceded 27% 73%


    Home Total CURRENT SEQUENCES Total Away
    1 - Consecutive wins - -
    - - Consecutive draws - -
    - 1 Consecutive defeats 4 3
    - 1 No win 4 3
    1 2 No draw 5 3
    2 - No defeat - -
    2 4 Goal scored 3 2
    2 5 Goal conceded 5 3
    - - No goal scored - -
    - - No goal conceded - -


    Points per game
    Korona Kielce Wisla Krakow
    Home 2
    0 Away
    Total 1
    0.6 Total

    Home Total OUTCOMES Total Away
    50% 1 1 Wins 1 0 0%
    50% 1 2 Draws 0 0 0%
    0% 0 2 Defeats 4 3 100%
    2 5 Total 5 3

    Home table
    GP Pts
    1 Termalica 4 10
    2 Arka Gdynia 3 9
    3 Zaglebie Lubin 4 8
    4 KS Cracovia 3 7
    5 Jagiellonia 3 6
    6 Lechia Gdansk 2 6
    7 Wisla Plock 3 6
    8 Pogon Szczecin 3 4
    9 Korona Kielce 2 4
    10 Ruch Chorzow 2 4
    11 Gornik Leczna 3 4
    12 Piast Gliwice 3 4
    13 Wisla Krakow 2 3
    14 Slask Wroclaw 3 3
    15 Legia Warsaw 4 3
    16 Lech Poznan 3 3
    Away table
    GP Pts
    1 Lechia Gdansk 4 7
    2 Zaglebie Lubin 2 4
    3 Pogon Szczecin 3 4
    4 Jagiellonia 3 4
    5 Slask Wroclaw 3 4
    6 Ruch Chorzow 4 4
    7 Legia Warsaw 2 3
    8 Arka Gdynia 3 3
    9 Wisla Plock 3 2
    10 Lech Poznan 3 2
    11 Piast Gliwice 3 2
    12 KS Cracovia 3 1
    13 Gornik Leczna 3 1
    14 Korona Kielce 3 1
    15 Wisla Krakow 3 0
    16 Termalica 2 0


    Home Total SCORING Total Away
    5 8 Goals scored 5 2
    2 10 Goals conceded 11 8
    (1) 2.50 1.60 Goals scored per match 1.00 0.67 (3)
    (2) 1.00 2.00 Goals conceded per match 2.20 2.67 (4)
    (A) 3.50 (B) 3.60 Scored+conc. per match 3.20 (C) 3.33 (D)
    100% 100% Matches over 1.5 goals 100% 100%
    (E) 50% (F) 60% Matches over 2.5 goals 100% (G) 100% (H)
    50% 60% Matches over 3.5 goals 20% 33%
    50% 40% Matches over 4.5 goals 0% 0%
    100% 80% Both teams scored 80% 67%
    0% 0% Clean sheets 0% 0%
    0% 20% Failed to score 20% 33%
    0% 0% Won-to-nil 0% 0%
    0% 20% Lost-to-nil 20% 33%

    Korona Kielce & Wisla Krakow, combined values League avg.
    average (1) & (4) values 2.59 1.60
    average (2) & (3) values 0.84 0.89
    Total goals average (A) & (D) values 3.42 2.49
    average (B) & (C) values 3.40
    Over 2.5 average (E) & (H) values 75.0% 48.9%
    average (F) & (G) values 80.0%




















































































































































    Then there's the more detailed stats once a league progresses. This is a Sweden match today



    GOALS PER 15 MIN.
    Elfsborg
    Total
    0-15 GF 2
    GA 4
    16-30 GF 3
    GA 5
    31-45 GF 7
    GA 4
    46-60 GF 6
    GA 5
    61-75 GF 9
    GA 3
    76-90 GF 6
    GA 4
    1st H GF 12
    GA 13
    2nd H GF 21
    GA 12
    '31-45' and '76-90' include added time
    GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
    GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')
    Elfsborg
    Home
    0-15 GF 2
    GA 1
    16-30 GF 1
    GA 2
    31-45 GF 5
    GA 1
    46-60 GF 3
    GA 2
    61-75 GF 7
    GA 3
    76-90 GF 0
    GA 2
    1st H GF 8
    GA 4
    2nd H GF 10
    GA 7
    '31-45' and '76-90' include added time
    GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
    GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')
    GIF Sundsvall
    Total
    0-15 GF 4
    GA 2
    16-30 GF 5
    GA 3
    31-45 GF 5
    GA 3
    46-60 GF 4
    GA 5
    61-75 GF 3
    GA 6
    76-90 GF 4
    GA 9
    1st H GF 14
    GA 8
    2nd H GF 11
    GA 20
    '31-45' and '76-90' include added time
    GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
    GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')
    GIF Sundsvall
    Away
    0-15 GF 2
    GA 1
    16-30 GF 1
    GA 1
    31-45 GF 2
    GA 3
    46-60 GF 2
    GA 4
    61-75 GF 1
    GA 2
    76-90 GF 3
    GA 5
    1st H GF 5
    GA 5
    2nd H GF 6
    GA 11
    '31-45' and '76-90' include added time
    GF: Goals scored ('goals for')
    GA: Goals conceded ('goals against')


    Then there's this which has made it slightly easier for me to pick draws or o/u's



    Home Total GOAL TYPES Total Away
    8 18 Matches played 18 9
    1 4 Equalizer goals scored 2 1
    7 14 Goals giving the lead 13 6
    10 15 Goals scored increasing/decreasing lead 10 4
    3 7 Equalizer goals conceded 7 3
    3 10 Goals giving the lead to the opponent 9 4
    5 8 Goals conceded increasing/decr. lead 12 9


    Home Total GOAL TYPES ANALYSIS Total Away
    8 18 Matches played 18 9
    0.88 0.78 Goals giving the lead per game * (1) 0.72 0.67
    33% 40% Ability to equalize * (2) 22% 25%
    0.38 0.56 Goals giving lead to opponent p. game * (3) 0.50 0.44
    43% 50% Opponents' ability to equalize * (4) 54% 50%


  8. #8
    Stackzilla
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    I'm always finding new sites but recently I've just been using soccerstats.com and http://whoscored.com who scored is another good site, lots of stats and on the bigger leagues they have specific player stats and not just team stats which is great to use. I hope these help you out and BOL.

    I dont mean to throw all this at you but live betting o.5 or o1.5 is my wheelhouse I've got it down to a science. Also if you like to watch the game and not rely on live stats check out http://www.reddit.com/r/soccerstreams
    and also on youtube in the search box type "Live" there's a channel called Live and you'll find more games there as well especially the smaller leagues
    Last edited by Stackzilla; 08-22-16 at 12:13 PM.

  9. #9
    KATCHASE
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    Wow...that's a lot of great info! I really appreciate it, Stackzilla. I'll be sure to check it out... And BOL to you too!

  10. #10
    KATCHASE
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    22/8

    Live a 28'

    Turkey » Super Lig » Galatasaray - Kardemir Karabuk
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  11. #11
    KATCHASE
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    RECORD: 5-0 (+5 Units)

    Quote Originally Posted by KATCHASE View Post


    21/8

    Live @ 35'
    Czech Republic » 1. Liga » Slavia Prague - Pribram
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.14
    Quote Originally Posted by KATCHASE View Post
    Live @ 17'

    Israel » Ligat ha'Al » Maccabi Tel Aviv - Hapoe
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10
    Quote Originally Posted by KATCHASE View Post
    Live @ 22'

    Portugal » Primeira Liga » Benfica - Setubal
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10
    Quote Originally Posted by KATCHASE View Post
    Live @ 21'


    USA » MLS » Seattle Sounders - Portland Timbers
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10
    Quote Originally Posted by KATCHASE View Post
    22/8

    Live a 28'

    Turkey » Super Lig » Galatasaray - Kardemir Karabuk
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10
    Points Awarded:

    Stackzilla gave KATCHASE 10 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  12. #12
    KATCHASE
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    25/8

    Live @ 21'
    Europe » Europa League » Sparta Prague (Cze) - Sonderjyske (Den)
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.10

  13. #13
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 19'
    Europe » Europa League » St Etienne (Fra) - Beitar Jerusalem (Isr)

    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.10

  14. #14
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 24'
    Europe » Europa League » Olympiakos Piraeus (Gre) - Arouca (Por)
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.10

  15. #15
    KATCHASE
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    26/8

    Live @ 23'
    Ireland » Premier Division » Wexford - Dundalk
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  16. #16
    KATCHASE
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    27/8

    Live @ 40'
    Spain » LaLiga » Real Madrid - Celta Vigo
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.11

  17. #17
    KATCHASE
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    28/8


    Live @ 55'
    Netherlands » Eredivisie » PSV - Groningen
    Bet: Over 0.5 goals @ 1.12

  18. #18
    EasyPicks
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    Your first loss came today, wiped out all your past winnings (give or take).

    The strategy seems solid but in fact it isn't.

    Take for example the Eredivisie last season, where there were 306 games total with 12 [0-0] or 3.96%.

    So if you, theoretically, could had caught all OVER 0.5 (Live) at 1.10 you would had made +17.40 units => that's not only irealistic as also not profitable enough.

    With that said,

    best of luck

  19. #19
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 20'
    Brazil » Série A » Santos - Figueirense
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  20. #20
    KATCHASE
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    Yes, a very diasappointing loss for sure. Although I may agree with you somewhat regarding profitability, it's not for the reason you stated.

    Using your example of 306 games and 12 (0-0) losses, we'd be looking at 294 wins to 12 losses (96% win rate). At 1.10 odds we'd have to bet 10 units to win 1 unit on each game. This means that the 294 wins would give us +294 units. Of course we'd have to subtract 120 units for the 12 losses, giving us a profit of +174 units.

    What has me questioning profitability is the number of games I can catch at minimum live odds of 1.10. Using your example, I'd need to catch a minimum of 120 out of the 294 winners to break even. I'm currently going through all my backtested games and recording when the first goal was scored. Since I started live tracking this strategy, i'm starting to get an idea of when the live odds for my games hit the 1.10 mark, and I'm starting to get a picture of how many games I should be able to catch at this point.

  21. #21
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 18'
    Turkey » Super Lig » Fenerbahce - Kayserispor
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  22. #22
    KATCHASE
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    1/9

    Live @ 15'
    World » World Cup 2018 » Australia - Iraq
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  23. #23
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 20'
    World » World Cup 2018 » Saudi Arabia - Thailand
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  24. #24
    KATCHASE
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    Live @ 18'
    World » World Cup 2018 » Colombia - Venezuela
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

  25. #25
    KATCHASE
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    6/9

    Live @ 40'
    World » World Cup 2018 » Chile - Bolivia
    Bet: Over 0.5 Goals @ 1.10

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