[Thryleon]

KATCHASE I studied your system and actually what you are saying is a bit different than what the thread title implies. Anyway I am here to suggest a different strategy. If you want to make real money you can do so by taking advantage of odd differences. Let me give you an example:

Team A - Team B
Odds at bookmaker a: 1.32 for TEAM A
Odds at bookmaker b: 1.45 for TEAM A
Odds at bookmaker c: 1.56 for TEAM B at some form of Asian Handicap
Odds at bookmaker d: 1.65 for TEAM B at a different form of Asian Handicap
Odds at bookmaker e: 1.70 for TEAM B at whatever handicap is offered.

Betting $100 to each of the above will get you a different return. Your way is betting to bookie a to get $32 return or to bookie e to get $70 in return. Your ideal solution would be to be able to see ALL the odds offered across the board for an event by let's say 10 different bookies, split your bet across the board and get a lot more in return.

The mathematics of it:

Total bet $1000

Returns:
Book a only: $320
Book b only: $450
Book c only: $560
Book d only: $650
Book e only: $700

Split $200 per bookie:
64+90+112+130+140 = $536.

Advantage: If you play the book e option and you lose the handicap terms you lose your enire stake. To give you double the odds of the event without handicap, usually implies that the terms of the handicap are hard to get. Which increases the odds of you losing your stake. Playing across the board will give you the option of balancing up should the case be that you lose one bet but win another.

This is safer betting thamn your suggestion. But it does give you the opportunity to remedy the loss of your entire stake should you be wrong.

[Stackzilla]

he's betting TO win $100 not $100 on each play

[KATCHASE]

Thryleon...Sounds like an interesting type of hedge betting. Thanks for sharing!

[KATCHASE]

I've applied my selection strategy to matches over the past year and I thought I'd share my backtesting results (July 1, 2015 to July 3, 2016)...

Odds.........Wins.....Losses.....Win %.....Units
1.01-1.09 .....80 ..........5 ...........94% .......+9.6
1.10-1.19 .....161 ........24 ............87% ......+3.9
1.20-1.29 ....164 ........27 ...........86% .....+47.5
1.30-1.39 ....173 .........51 ...........77% .....+25.8
1.40-1.49 ....149 .........62 ...........71% ......+9.3
TOTALS ......727 .......169 ..........81% ....+96.1


The plays I've been posting on this thread include those falling within two odds ranges - the 1.20 to 1.29 range and 1.30 to 1.39 odds range.

I fully understand that past results do not guarantee future success, but I personally enjoy the challenge and the journey. Best of luck to everyone. :-)

[KATCHASE]

20/7

10:00

Europe » Champions League » FC Astana (Kaz) - Zalgiris (Ltu)
Tip 1 @ 1.39

[KATCHASE]

14:45

Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Vardar (Mac)
Tip 1 @ 1.29

[intermission]

fuk yea last minute goal!!!

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 29-10 (-1.4 units)

20/7

10:00

Europe » Champions League » FC Astana (Kaz) - Zalgiris (Ltu)
Tip 1 @ 1.39

14:45

Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Vardar (Mac)
Tip 1 @ 1.29

[KATCHASE]

23/7

10:00

Sweden » Allsvenskan » Norrkoping - Gefle
Tip 1 @ 1.38

[KATCHASE]

13:00
Slovakia » Fortuna liga » Trencin - Senica
Tip 1 @ 1.42

14:15
Slovenia » Prva liga » Radomlje - O. Ljubljana
Tip 2 @ 1.36

[Duckshit]

Thanks katchase, I picked up the 14:15 play -1.5 -105...Nice 90th min winna!

[KATCHASE]

Thanks katchase, I picked up the 14:15 play -1.5 -105...Nice 90th min winna!

Nice!

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 32-10 (+1.6 units)

23/7

10:00

Sweden » Allsvenskan » Norrkoping - Gefle
Tip 1 @ 1.38

13:00
Slovakia » Fortuna liga » Trencin - Senica
Tip 1 @ 1.42

14:15
Slovenia » Prva liga » Radomlje - O. Ljubljana
Tip 2 @ 1.36

[Duckshit]

Excellent, I'll be excited to roll with you into the GrEeN!

[KATCHASE]

25/7

19:00
Brazil » Série A » Flamengo RJ - America **
Tip 1 @ 1.37

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 33-10 (+2.6 units)

25/7

19:00
Brazil » Série A » Flamengo RJ - America **
Tip 1 @ 1.37

[KATCHASE]

26/7

14:45
Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Dinamo Tbilisi (Geo)
Tip 1 @ 1.32

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 34-10 (+3.6 units)

26/7

14:45
Europe » Champions League » D. Zagreb (Cro) - Dinamo Tbilisi (Geo)
Tip 1 @ 1.32

[KATCHASE]

27/7

14:45
Europe » Champions League » Olympiakos Piraeus (Gre) - H. Beer Sheva (Isr)
Tip 1 @ 1.30

[frankyyv24]

Lets get it!

[STAY STRONG]

Good luck.

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 34-11 (+0.27 units)

27/7

14:45
Europe » Champions League » Olympiakos Piraeus (Gre) - H. Beer Sheva (Isr)
Tip 1 @ 1.30

[KATCHASE]

28/7

13:00
Europe » Europa League » Austria Vienna (Aut) - Trnava (Svk)
Tip 1 @ 1.36

14:00
Europe » Europa League » Genk (Bel) - Cork City (Irl)
Tip 1 @ 1.33

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 35-12 (-1.51units)

28/7

13:00
Europe » Europa League » Austria Vienna (Aut) - Trnava (Svk)
Tip 1 @ 1.36

14:00
Europe » Europa League » Genk (Bel) - Cork City (Irl)
Tip 1 @ 1.33

[KATCHASE]

29/7

07:00
Vietnam » V-League » T&T Ha Noi - Dong Thap
Tip 1 @ 1.22

14:00
Croatia » 1. HNL » D. Zagreb - Belupo
Tip 1 @ 1.25

[cryptocap]

^ how are these high risk

[Stackzilla]

KATCHASE bets to win 1 unit so 1.22 the risk is 4.54 units to win 1 unit (high risk) and for 1.20 the risk is 4 units to win 1 unit. Risking 8.54 units to win 2 units is a risky play regardless of how good the team is.

[KATCHASE]

Yes...you've got it. And that is exactly what I mean by "high risk".

I'm not guaranteeing anything. However, according to my backtesting results, my selection strategy showed some positive results over the past year. Winnings ranged between -14 units and +84 units. I personally bet what I can afford to lose, and use this thread for tracking the results.

[Stackzilla]

I've applied my selection strategy to matches over the past year and I thought I'd share my backtesting results (July 1, 2015 to July 3, 2016)...

Odds.........Wins.....Losses.....Win %.....Units
1.01-1.09 .....80 ..........5 ...........94% .......+9.6
1.10-1.19 .....161 ........24 ............87% ......+3.9
1.20-1.29 ....164 ........27 ...........86% .....+47.5
1.30-1.39 ....173 .........51 ...........77% .....+25.8
1.40-1.49 ....149 .........62 ...........71% ......+9.3
TOTALS ......727 .......169 ..........81% ....+96.1


The plays I've been posting on this thread include those falling within two odds ranges - the 1.20 to 1.29 range and 1.30 to 1.39 odds range.

I fully understand that past results do not guarantee future success, but I personally enjoy the challenge and the journey. Best of luck to everyone. :-)

Yes, your back testing results point to a profitable strategy especially in the 1.20-1.29 range. Overall totals is even more impressive, for me it's tough to justify a 4 unit play to make 1 unit. I know some are looking for that 1 "for sure winner" and will only play these types of odds on occasion but your showing that if a person was to only play these odds (big favorites) that over time it can be profitable except the down swing can be rough. I'd like to back-test further for you if you don't mind specifying how you did your back-testing, was it certain teams or certain leagues?

[Duckshit]

Thanks for sharing.

[KATCHASE]

I crossed referenced games across many leagues according to various stats with their posted odds. Unfortunately some cross-referencing shortcuts that I use aren't available for games past one year. Otherwise, I wouldn't hesitate on further backtesting. And you're exactly right...I'm hoping that my strategy may reveal that playing these "big favorites" over time may be profitable, but a heavy down swing can be rough - with the most recorded over the past year being -14 units. The major upswing last year began in late December.

[Stackzilla]

thanks, I got an idea oddsportal keeps very good records of odds dating back a few years. I'll look into a few teams that you've already wagered on as well as a few top teams and I'll see what I can find

[KATCHASE]

RECORD: 36-13 (-4.51 units)

29/7

07:00
Vietnam » V-League » T&T Ha Noi - Dong Thap
Tip 1 @ 1.22

14:00
Croatia » 1. HNL » D. Zagreb - Belupo
Tip 1 @ 1.25

[cryptocap]

ahhh ok...its the kinda risk that is on your bankroll not the outcome probability

[KATCHASE]

30/7

Live in-play @ 15'

Denmark » Superliga » FC Copenhagen - Nordsjaelland
Tip 1 @ 1.33