1. 03-02-16 05:11 PM #1
    Nova99
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    MLS 2016 Season

    playing some dfs and season long mls this year, going to sprinkle a few units each week on mls league games. Long time fan of the ny red bulls, watch most of their matches, also its been fun watching the train wreck that is nycfc

    weird things happen in mls so hopefully can make a few units of drinking money at the end of the season, also would be nice to discuss mls with fellow bettors in a season long thread!

    Like these future bets: Seattle sounders +1320, FC Dallas +1150 and Toronto +1700.

    First week: 1 Unit each on FC Dallas -1 @ -136 and LA Galaxy -1.25 @ -108

    DC and LA both played last night, DC is flying out and the game is at 10pm est on sunday.
    FC Dallas may be one of the best offensive teams this season, dont think philly can hold.

    Feel free to post your thoughts/analysis/plays here as well!
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  2. 03-02-16 08:01 PM #2
    biff
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    red bulls... last possession it hits the post. from possible euphoric joy to ruins in a matter of seconds. needless to say, mls finally won me over last year minus columbus winning by boring teams to death.

    i wish the fire would stop sucking this year but... yeah. good luck man.
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  3. 03-02-16 09:42 PM #3
    Nova99
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    Chicago has a great offensive force, if they can get the defenders playing well they can make the playoffs if you look at the redbulls def last season no one really gave them a shot, turned out to be great... just one of the weird things about MLS, one or two players can drastically change your fortune...
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  4. 03-02-16 10:11 PM #4
    biff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    Chicago has a great offensive force, if they can get the defenders playing well they can make the playoffs if you look at the redbulls def last season no one really gave them a shot, turned out to be great... just one of the weird things about MLS, one or two players can drastically change your fortune...
    fire will find ways to lose but thanks for the info that they finally might be getting their shit together. regardless of predictions going in last year, ny bulls were the best and god damnit, they should have won. on another note, i enjoyed watching the galaxy ditching a great team with great chemistry in favor of getting some well known names and watching them implode.

    what kills me... leagues like the mls will never truly be recognized simply because there is no europe champions league or europa (for obvious reasons, of course). the best we can hope for is playing top teams in friendlies. still, it's fun betting so it's not too bad.
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  5. 03-03-16 09:53 AM #5
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    Chicago has a great offensive force, if they can get the defenders playing well they can make the playoffs if you look at the redbulls def last season no one really gave them a shot, turned out to be great... just one of the weird things about MLS, one or two players can drastically change your fortune...
    have they? Gilberto, Accam and Igbo? it's nothing special although certainly can be effective. Gilberto is inconsistent though. Fire along with Colorado probably have weakest side as a whole
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  6. 03-03-16 06:13 PM #6
    Nova99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughany View Post
    have they? Gilberto, Accam and Igbo? it's nothing special although certainly can be effective. Gilberto is inconsistent though. Fire along with Colorado probably have weakest side as a whole
    Not saying they are the best in the league, their mid and def lets them down in terms of linking up play and they almost never play together. I think Accam is as fast as any fwd in the league, Gilberto was a decent scorer later on in the season. I think of DC the same way, they have a trio of good attacking players but they lack the def and mid linkup to really do damage. I actually think both DC and Chi have a better attacking trio talent wise than nyrb, but sam, bwp and grella just fits the system of play so well that they are more consistent and effective.

    I think Philly is the biggest stinker of the league... at least Colorado attempted to get a few players...
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  7. 03-04-16 07:56 AM #7
    lonnloe
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    Chicago just picked up Arturo Alvarez. Great addition!
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  8. 03-06-16 03:11 PM #8
    mlb
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    on Dallas and Galaxy man also - let's get it.
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  9. 03-09-16 08:15 AM #9
    Nova99
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    Took seattle late so 2-1 1u first week

    Saw Columbus crew ml -133 on nitrogen sports, seems like a good value. Dallas toyed with Philly at times last week but lacked a target man to finish, expecting kamara to bag a few here.

    Gona look for the best line on Toronto ml and o3.5, giovinco looks like he's ready for another great year
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  10. 03-09-16 11:17 AM #10
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    Took seattle late so 2-1 1u first week

    Saw Columbus crew ml -133 on nitrogen sports, seems like a good value. Dallas toyed with Philly at times last week but lacked a target man to finish, expecting kamara to bag a few here.

    Gona look for the best line on Toronto ml and o3.5, giovinco looks like he's ready for another great year
    I'm heavily leaning both of these - I only have 2 shops for soccer so I can't be as picky as I would like.
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  11. 03-10-16 11:49 PM #11
    Nova99
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    MLS is a weird league, fully expecting some weird things to pop up and undo everything we have seen in week 1....

    DC and NE are similar teams imo, NE hardly has a home field advantage playing in foxboro with 3/4 of the seats tarped up... thinking a close battle.
    DCU ML +450 .5u
    DCU +0.5 +130 1u

    Toronto Def looked solid, but its only been one game, nyc still looks like a mess, hoping Giovinco scores 3 and villa adds 1. It is nyc home opener and that place can pack over 40k. Hoping its a 3-2 or 4-1 TFC victory
    TOR ML +170 1u
    TOR NYC o3.5 116 2u

    Galaxy + money on the road vs colorado, why the hell not...
    LAG ML +124 1u

    Just think Crew is far superior than the union and will want to play well in the home opener
    Crew -1 +125 1u
    Crew ML -140 2u

    Just for fun DRAW parlay
    CHI-ORL + NE-DC + MTL-NY + SJ-POR ~ $5 to win $820
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  12. 03-11-16 10:31 AM #12
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    MLS is a weird league, fully expecting some weird things to pop up and undo everything we have seen in week 1....
    I'm glad you brought this up - Everybody betting/following every single sports league in the world will say that their league is a weird league, but as I am trying to get into MLS betting and invest time I'm curious to anyone's view who has followed for years. The EPL is a "crazy" league but the top teams do win often, hence the premiums you pay each and every week to bet the top teams. Is the MLS like this or will you see more conservative lines week in and week out. After that first week and looking in to week 2, some of these lines seem very cautious on the top teams. Thoughts?
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  13. 03-11-16 10:36 AM #13
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    DC and NE are similar teams imo, NE hardly has a home field advantage playing in foxboro with 3/4 of the seats tarped up... thinking a close battle.
    DCU ML +450 .5u
    DCU +0.5 +130 1u
    Really like your DC play. They played "ok" in that first half verse Galaxy and I expect a decent effort from them.

    This is also where my above post comes into play. In baseball, basketball and football, I will almost always fade New England after a game like that. They scored right at the beginning and scored late to tie to get a good result. My natural contrarian view would be to fade New England and play DC as I feel like we are getting some decent value. Is this thinking logical in the MLS, because I know in EPL and other top soccer leagues, it's not. My thoughts are that it has to do with soccer being such a low scoring sport. In other sports, both teams score more often so I know the other team has a chance. With soccer, if a team can't score, they can't score. Do you essentially see what I'm asking?
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  14. 03-11-16 10:40 AM #14
    mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    Toronto Def looked solid, but its only been one game, nyc still looks like a mess, hoping Giovinco scores 3 and villa adds 1. It is nyc home opener and that place can pack over 40k. Hoping its a 3-2 or 4-1 TFC victory
    TOR ML +170 1u
    TOR NYC o3.5 116 2u

    Galaxy + money on the road vs colorado, why the hell not...
    LAG ML +124 1u
    I like both of your Toronto plays - we talked about this in a different thread.

    Galaxy question goes along with the questions as well. Rarely in the EPL or other soccer league, see a "top name" team at such nice odds on the road verse a bad team. Colorado is ranked dead last in the MLS power rankings (not saying I agree with). This would indicate your theory of "why the hell not" is the feeling of many people out there. Why is vegas putting up that number. Because they really think Galaxy is in a tough spot or because it's the MLS and who the hell cares what they lose on it because it's such a low amount.
    What's your take? and anyone else?

    bol this wknd man.
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  15. 03-11-16 08:27 PM #15
    Nova99
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    For the Colorado match they have the altitude as the home advantage, early on in the season most teams are probably not match fit and then you deal with that air, it will be brutal. That's what I'm guessing, the line at Bookmaker has gone up to +150 on LA ML now. There is a HUGE home advantage in MLS, if you look at last years record (http://www.mlssoccer.com/standings/mls/2015/) , even the best team was under .500 on the road, nyrb 6-7-4 and la galaxy was 2-9-6! Also books limit mls to 500-1000... so no biggie on the risk!

    As for MLS overall its weird and frustrating for a bettor because of several reasons imo...
    - lack of in depth coverage, mgrs hide information, injuries, etc.

    - not a single table league so no real reward to battle for #1, this means some mgrs will give up certain games esp on the road to rest players for home matches, which add in no in depth coverage could mean finding out a top guy is missing 45 mins before kickoff.

    - Weird league calendar - disruption due to qualifiers, summer tourneys, cup matches, regional cup matches, summer heat.

    - Player turnover occurs in 3 phases - first is now when you have the offseason signings, then you have the summer window where in the summer heat new players join, then you have the fall playoff time when players are just shut down and some teams just play players no one has heard of.

    I think its may be good to treat MLS as baseball, try to find some good lines from time to time and hope you hit around 52-52% so you can profit on the + lines...!
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  16. 03-12-16 07:09 PM #16
    biff
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    got over 1.5 2nd half in colorado vs. la. solid bet i think.
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  17. 03-12-16 07:13 PM #17
    biff
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    oh, and sense i've somehow lost my editing privileges... i forgot to say galaxy will always be a threat as long as they still have keane. it's just they used to have a better team surrounding him.
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  18. 03-12-16 08:06 PM #18
    Nova99
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    Gonna be a week 2 burial here with philly playing so well... crazy week 2 so far...
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  19. 03-12-16 09:50 PM #19
    biff
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nova99 View Post
    Gonna be a week 2 burial here with philly playing so well... crazy week 2 so far...
    hope no one followed my dumbass either. god damn dead and buried. by the way, fire are 0-1-1, great start, ha...

    good luck to you man.
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  20. 03-13-16 10:47 AM #20
    Nova99
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    at least King David Accam is scoring goals for ya! So far nothing to cheer for on offense for the red bulls

    week 2 saturday fixtures all of the home teams won except for the two heavy favs with the most juiced odds...
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  21. 03-13-16 06:15 PM #21
    Nova99
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    2-5 this week -2.7 units

    overall 4-6: -1.7 unit
    Last edited by Nova99; 03-13-16 at 06:20 PM.
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  22. 03-19-16 04:24 PM #22
    Nova99
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    Taking LAG SJ o3 +120 1 Unit - hoping for a big game from robbie keane and wondo
    MTL +0.5 -112 1 Unit I think Drogba is expected to play some part tonight.

    Going to have some really crappy rain/snow mix tomorrow in dc area, so maybe take dc col u2 for plus money...
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  23. 05-21-16 08:50 AM #23
    Nova99
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    Been away a few weeks due to work, couldnt have been more wrong in my colorado and philly preseason takes.

    Gonna head over to yankee stadium to watch soccer in the shittest stadium for soccer with a lot of plastic fans

    Red Bulls cannot score, cannot make 3 passes, cannot win on the road.
    NYCFC is on an unbeatable streak, Villa is top scorer, random guys are popping up with goals.
    With that said since its MLS... .... gotta take Red Bulls at +150 (2u)

    Total homer pick but Red Bulls will high press the gk and def, nycfc's weakest areas will be the def and gk, perhaps that will turn into a few goals. NYC has a great attack and the red bull def is a complete mess, will look around for the o3. Would not be surprised if either team wins 3-1 / 4-0


    ORL MTL u2.5 +102 (1u)
    ORL MTL Draw +270 (.5u)
    TOR CLB Draw +260 (.5u)

    Overall 5-7 (-1.6)
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  24. 05-21-16 02:19 PM #24
    mlb
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    good to have ya back - lets get to work.... im up over 20units in MLS still. really like seattle in revenge spot tonight.
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  25. 05-21-16 02:22 PM #25
    Nova99
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    Thanks man, ur doing fantastic in mls!
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  26. 05-21-16 04:10 PM #26
    intermission
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    Good call on the red bull, villa is such a ball hogger...this team is going nowhere even with pirlo and lampard
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  27. 05-21-16 10:37 PM #27
    Nova99
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    What a glorious day at yankee stadium, goal feast! Really ashamed that i forgot to really look for the O3, also for not playing in game during the match on o3 o4 o5 o6 lol .... funniest thing is many of these nycfc "fans" didnt really care, they were happy to see the massacre since they were seeing goals, the "supporters section" stopped moving 3 minutes into the match!

    Larin is such a beast, thought the under and draw could've survived there! Leaning the Cali-Classico to go over morrow, there are always goals in that match

    overall 7-9 (+0.75)
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  28. 06-18-16 12:06 AM #28
    Nova99
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    Lots of injuries and callups on the return of MLS
    Colorado is without J. Jones, Gilberto has left Chicago Fire
    Montreal is without Piatti, Columbus is missing Higuain
    Orlando is missing Kaka, SJ is missing Wondo

    Vancouver -1 +220 vs NE Revs - one of the better home teams vs a bad road team
    Houston +106 vs DC - Hot Texas summer has begun, have to play the home team for + money

    Weird stat for NYCFC vs PHILLY: NYCFC is 1-3-5 at home, Philly is 1-3-3 away....
    Cloudbet has OVER 2.5 + Draw at +860... have to take a stab at that!
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