This is a game where things could get ugly for Lazio. They are on a really inconsistent run of form (DWDLWDLD since the turn of the year), and can't seem to string together a few games with a goal, let alone a win. They have scored nine goals in their previous eight games, but those goals only come in 3 games, and they haven't scored in their previous three. This is further bought into question when you find not only are their TWO top goal scorers both midfielders (6,5), and they don't seem to have a true no 1 striker, but those two midfield players have actually out scored the entire strike force (3,3,2,2). Infact, the midfield unit had scored 19 goals altogether, the strike force only 10. Tonight Lazio play at home in an empty stadium. Following racist chanting directed at a Napoli player the last home match Lazio had, the stadium has been closed for two home games, and Lazio given a €65,000 fine. I can't see that closing the stadium will help Lazio's inconsistent form, which is why I would be hard pushed to take the home win without some insurance.
Verona are the bottom team in Serie A, having won only one game all season, but drawing 11. Their problem seems to be that they just can't can't close games, whether it's pushing for that goal to win/draw the game, or holding a lead when they have it. Four of their last five games are draws, and the one W was against Atalanta, which was heading for another draw, had it not been for a red card during the game. The vast majority of their losses have been by one goal. Their last game out was a home match to Inter, which are a class above this squad, yet Verona led 2-1 at HT, and 3-1 at 60 minutes. Letting the lead slip, they finished 3-3 and Inter were fairly fortunate to get out with any points at all.
I'm reading the situation here. Verona playing well against a team a cut above them and leading for the majority of the game should hopefully have given a little confidence, and playing a lukewarm & cold team in their empty stadium, I can see Verona getting something here. Probably not a W, if a win happens it will most likely be Lazio, as they are the better team, at home, even if it's an empty stadium. However, with the stats and situation, and Verona being a draw specialist, that's what I'll take. 0-0 or 1-1.
Celta Vigo v Sevilla (Copa Del Rey Semi-Final, 0-4 Agg)
Safe call: BTTS @ 1/2
Riskier bet: Draw/BTTS @ 3/1
Longershot: Celta Vigo Win/BTTS @ 16/5
The second leg of the Copa Del Rey semi-final rolls into Balaidos, where an entertaining game is expected as Celta will try to overturn a 4-0 first leg defeat. Celta have a good record against Sevilla at home, and should be playing lights-out attack as they try to bring the tie back to them, although if this will result in them playing a higher D line, Sevilla should take advantage and get an away goal to secure the tie. Celta have the highest home possession percentage after Barcelona and Real Madrid, and should make it count at home. I expect goals, and a few of them. Scores are unpredictable, but I'll take a BTTS easily. Celta like being at home, and Sevilla are in good form, so I'll take a BTTS/Draw here, although if pushed, I'd take Celta Win/BTTS, as like Barcelona yesterday, Sevilla do not need the W in this game and will look to take it easy and not get any unnecessary injuries as they will be pushing for at least Europa League football in La Liga, and will want three points at the weekend.
Great analysis on the lazio game. What worries me is the linemakers know this as well yet still have them at -227 which makes me wonder. Chievo has drawn so many games and Lazio is all over the place with an empty stadium and the line is still that high and going up? I'm considering BTTS 1 H and Lazio -1 3way in the 1H.
Celta Vigo/Sevilla game finishes 2-2, giving us the BTTS @ 1/2, and the Draw/BTTS @ 3/1. Celta did miss a penalty, which would have give us the Celta Win/BTTS @ 16/5 had it gone in. Had this game down to a T. The Serie A game, not so much.
Lazio/Verona game finishes 5-2. That many goals was really unexpected, especially in a closed stadium. However, Lazio's trend to either score heavily or not at all continues. Game was 1-0 at HT, then 3-0 at 70 minutes, then Verona scored 2 in the next 10 minutes to bring the game to 3-2 at 80. However, once again they couldn't close the game, giving away an 82nd minute goal and an 89th minute penalty to let the game finish 5-2. Lazio DNB comes in.
No write-ups for tomorrow. Not much I fancy, plus it's a Friday, stay away from betting Friday & early KO weekend games, for some reason every game goes a bit weird and every bet goes awry. Back Friday evening or Sat morning to dissect Saturday games.
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