[posey]

I bet on MLB and Soccer and I want to track my Soccer picks here. All plays 1 u flat betting style.


6/6

Holmen - Kjelsas (NOR DIV 2 Gr. 1), Kjelsas -1 AHC -125
This league has 14 teams and big quality differences. Holmen (13) is one of the worst teams (0-2-5, 3:18, 2 pts.), they lost the last 5 and 4 of them with at least 3 goals difference. The single close loss came against another bad team (vs Mjolner at home 1:2). Kjelsas (3) is much better (5-0-2, 22:10 goals, 15 pts.) and has a shot at promotion. They won 3 straight and 4 of their 5 wins came with 2 goals difference or more. The single close win (at Tromsdale, 1:0) came against a direct opponent from the upper half of the table. Kjelsas shouldn't have much trouble winning here, normally they win with 2 or more.


Dalkurd - Forward (SWE DIV 1 Norra), Dalkurd -1 AHC -115
Dalkurd finished last season at third (only 1 point behind promotion playoffs), Forward at sixth (but only 37 pts. in 26 games, most of them coming in the 2nd half of the season). Right now Dalkurd leads the league (7-1-0, 17:5, 22 pts.). Going back to last season they have a home record of 11-2-0 in their last 13 (this season they are 5-0-0, 10:2, 15 pts. at home). Forward isn't a bad team (4-2-2, 16:10, 14 pts.), but not very good on the road. They lost their last match at Umea (2nd) with 1:3. Dalkurd won the last H2H-matchups. Forward lost all 8 matches against the teams placed 1, 2, 3 or 4 last season. Bigger quality difference than the placements suggest.

[posey]

6/6

Holmen - Kjelsas (NOR DIV 2 Gr. 1), Kjelsas -1 AHC -125
2-3, PUSH, +- 0.00 u.
Holmen scored the 2nd in stoppage time.


Dalkurd - Forward (SWE DIV 1 Norra), Dalkurd -1 AHC -115
1-1, LOSS, -1.00 u.
Forward scored the equalizer in stoppage time.

Record: 0-1, -1.00 u.

[posey]

Atletico Mineiro - Cruzeiro (BRA Serie A), Atletico -0.75, -119
Atletico with better start into season with 3-1-1 and 13:5 goals. All 3 wins in style (4:1, 3:0, 4:1). Points only lost against first Placed Atletico PR (0:1 away) and Palmeiras (2:2 away, Palmeiras with equalizer at 90+4). Cruzeiro with rough start, only 1-1-3 with 3:5 goals, losing both away games thusfar.

[posey]

Atletico Paranaense - Vasco (BRA Serie A), Atletico -0.75 AHC, -108
Atletico leads the league with 4 wins and only 1 loss, winning 3 in a row and winning all 3 home games with 5:0 goals combined. They started the season as good as they closed out last year. Last season they went the last 10 with 6-2-2 and they finished in the upper middle of Serie A. Vasco finished at third place in Serie B last year and therefore promoted to Serie A. Vasco was strong at home last season, but had troubles on the road. Typical for a team in Brazil. They started their season with 3 draws against mediocre teams and then lost the last 2 against currently better teams (0:3 against Ponte Preta and Mineiro). They have big problems on offense with only 1 goal in 5 games thusfar. This smells like major trouble against Paranaense, who has conceded only 3 overall and 0 at home as I said above.

[posey]

Atletico Mineiro - Cruzeiro (BRA Serie A), Atletico -0.75, -119, 1-3, L, -1.00 u.
Atletico Paranaense - Vasco (BRA Serie A), Atletico -0.75 AHC, -108, 2-0, W, +0.93 u.

1-1, -0.07 u.

Record: 1-2, -1.07 u.

[posey]

6/7

Internacional - Coritiba (BRA Serie A), Home Win, -155
Lots of juice but IMO one of the easiest bets today. Internacional not doing well at the moment, started the season with 1-3-1 and scored only 3 goals thusfar. But main reason for the bet are the visitors. Here are their away stats dating back to previous Serie A seasons (year/wins/draws/losses/goals/points):
- 2015: 0-0-3, 1:5, 0
- 2014: 2-6-11, 18:34, 12
- 2013: 2-7-10, 13:26, 13
- 2012: 3-4-12, 20:41, 13
- 2011: 3-5-11, 17:28, 14
Overall: 10-22-47, 69:134, 52
Wins: 13%
Draws: 28%
Losses: 59%
Goals scored: 0,87 /game
Goals conceded: 1,70 /game
Points: 0,66 /game
This is bad, even for brazilian standards. As I said, Internacional didn't start well either but they have the higher quality and will start to climb the ladder rather sooner than later, while Coritiba will fight against relegation the whole season.
Therefore I have no fear of taking the odds on the home win.

[posey]

Internacional - Coritiba (BRA Serie A), Home Win, -155, 2-0, W, +0.65 u.

Record: 2-2, -0.42 u.

[posey]

ES Sahel - Raja Casablanca (CAF Confederation Cup), Home, -125
Raja won the first matchup with 2-0, so Sahel has to do some damage and I think they are capable of doing so.
Sahel from Tunisia finished their domestic league in 2nd place. Their record over their last 9 league games was 6-3-0. They are very, very strong at home, not only in their domestic league, where they went 6-3-0 in their last 9 home games (conceding only 3), but also in the CAF cup. In this cup their home streak dating back to 2008 shows 19 wins, 3 draws and only 2 losses which were also the only 2 games in which they didn't score.
Raja finished their domestic league only at the 8th place and was in bad shape recently. The 2-0 against Sahel was the only win since mid April (all competitions combined). They participated in the African CL but lost to ES Setif from Algeria in penalties and were kicked out from the CL and now are in the Confederations Cup. Their recent form besides the win against Sahel was bad, as I said and when you look at their away record in African Cups over the last few years, they have lost a ton of those matches.
Sahel will be hot in front of their home crowd and for sure wants to kick a$$. They should win here.

[posey]

ES Sahel - Raja Casablanca (CAF Confederation Cup), Home, -125, 3:0, W, +0.80 u.

Record: 3-2, +0.38 u.

[trobin31]

Good call on the internacional, keep it up.

Good to see someone likes bases and futbol as well.

[posey]

Thanks.

6/8

Parlay Trelleborgs + Shamrock -124

Trelleborgs - Kristianstads (SWE DIV 1 Södra), Home
Trelleborgs is off to a strong start with 7 wins in 8 games and 20:8 goals. Their schedule hasn't been too weak thusfar, so you have to take them seriously. Kristiansands is already in the bottom of the table, they are 2-3-3 although they had already 5 home games. Good thing for them is that their home record is at 2-3-0, because they are very bad on the road where they lost all 3. Both of the last 2 H2H at Trelleborgs were won by the home team.

Shamrock - Derry City (IRL Premier League), Home
Shamrock is still the only team without a loss at 7-5-0 and they need to win to keep up the pace with Dundalk and Cork. Their offense isn't too strong, as they rely on a very stable defense, but they can erupt on the opponents end from time to time when they are on. They are good at home (5-3-0), winning their last 3 home games in a row. Derry has gotten weaker over the last few seasons and has major troubles scoring goals (only 10 in 15 games). Currently they have a 3-5-7 record and their run of 0-2-4 in which they scored only twice has gotten them closer and closer to the danger zone. The last H2H show a clear advantage for Shamrock.

[posey]

CA Tigre - Aldosivi (ARG Primera Division), Home, -104
Let's start with the visitors. They are at 12th, which is not bad for a freshly promoted team. Surprisingly they had a very good run going over recent weeks, especially on the road, where they beat Boca, Argentinos Jrs., Sarandi and Belgrano. In fact, they won their last 3 away games in a row. But it won't last long and established teams will catch up to them and keep their three good attackers (Martinez, Sand, Lugüercio, who combine for 13 goals of Aldosivi's 19 overall) in check. But it's not only surprising that Aldosivi does so well, it's even more surprising that they did so well on the road, as they had some troubles on foreign grounds over the last year. The last league match was a home loss and after that they lost to a 2nd league club at home in the Copa Argentina. So it looks like that they could have hit a wall.
CA Tigre is at 9th, they don't score much, but have a defensive wall. In 5 home games (4-1-0) they conceded only 1 goal thusfar. Tigre is generally quite good at home, dating back to April '14 (all competitions) they have won 14 along 4 draws and only 3 losses (against Boca, Velez Sarsfield and Newell's Old Boys).
I don't expect many goals, but the odds for over/under are too bad to play IMO. But what looks attractive to me is the odds on a home win. IMO Tigre wins more than 50% of the games in this situation.

[k0karn]

Trelleborgs - Kristianstads (SWE DIV 1 Södra), Home
Trelleborgs is off to a strong start with 7 wins in 8 games and 20:8 goals. Their schedule hasn't been too weak thusfar, so you have to take them seriously. Kristiansands is already in the bottom of the table, they are 2-3-3 although they had already 5 home games. Good thing for them is that their home record is at 2-3-0, because they are very bad on the road where they lost all 3. Both of the last 2 H2H at Trelleborgs were won by the home team.

About this one:

"Norlla Amiri, Admir Osmancevic och Mathias Andersson missar matchen."
"Norlla Amiri, Admir Osmancevic and Mathias Andersson miss the game."

I'm not sure about how important these players are for Trellerborgs, but it does makes the bet less attractive for me. Thoughts?

[posey]

About this one:

"Norlla Amiri, Admir Osmancevic och Mathias Andersson missar matchen."
"Norlla Amiri, Admir Osmancevic and Mathias Andersson miss the game."

I'm not sure about how important these players are for Trellerborgs, but it does makes the bet less attractive for me. Thoughts?

Oh, that's not too important to me.
Matthias Andersson has played in only 2 games and in both he came in as a substitute.
Amiri has played in 6 games, but in only 4 as a starter.
Osmancevic has played in 3 games and he is normally a regular, but he has been out since the end of April.
So none of them belongs to the 10 guys, who have started at least 10 games.
More important players like Camara-Jönsson, Palander, Haynes or Jasim are all available.
Trelleborgs signed some good guys in the offseason (two of them are Osmancevic and Mathias Anderson) and they have a much better squad than last season.

[posey]

Parlay Trelleborgs + Shamrock -124, 4:3+4:1, W, +0.81 u.

Little bit lucky here, as Trelleborgs turned a 1:3 into a 4:3 in the last 25 minutes.

CA Tigre - Aldosivi (ARG Primera Division), Home, -104, 2:1, W, +0.96 u.

And even more lucky here, as Tigre scored the 2:1 in the 90+6 minute on a penalty.
But since I had bad luck on two bets on Sunday where I was hurt in extra time, it evens out.

Yesterday: 2-0, +1.77 u.

Record: 5-2, +2.15 u.

[posey]

6/10

Deportivo Riestra - UAI Urquiza (ARG Primera B Metrop.), Home, -105


Riestra is a promoted team and sits at third. They already have shown some respectable results against established teams. They are very good at home (6-1-1), but not only this year. They have a strong record as hosts dating back to some time. In 2014 they lost only 1, 2 were draws and they won 16. Currently they are unbeaten over 4.
Urquiza, despite drawing some games, is in a funk lately. They had the lead in only one of their last 9 games and weren't able to win any of it. Opposed to Riestra, Urquiza is a very bad road team. Since 2014 they won only 4 games on the road, 9 were draws and 18 were lost.
So all in all we have a very strong home team here with a trend going upward and a very bad road team with a downward-trend. Easy bet on the home team? I hope so.

[posey]

Deportivo Riestra - UAI Urquiza (ARG Primera B Metrop.), Home, -105, 0:1, L, -1.00 u

11-2 corners, 15-8 shots and a missed penalty for Riestra.

Record: 5-3, +1.15 u.

[posey]

Dom. Republic - Belize, Home -0.75, +100
World-Cup-Qualifier here. Belize advanced to the next round via a 1:1 (A) and 0:0 (H) against Cayman Islands (being HEAVILY favored in both). Very bad road team (0-2-7 in their last 9 away from home).
Dom. Republic isn't known for soccer and they aren't good, but they won a friendly against Cayman Islands a few months ago with 6:0.
Another comparison: Dom. Rep. is at 116 and Belize at 155 in the FIFA-Ranking.

[posey]

Dom. Republic - Belize, Home -0.75, +100, 1:2, L, -1.00 u

Record: 5-4, +0.15 u.

[posey]

Zambia - Guinea-Bissau (AFR CoN QU), Under 2.5, +100
Don't expect many goals here, visitors will try to avoid damage and defend. Sambia with 12 under 2.5 in in their last 15 games. Guinea-Bissau with 3 under 2.5 in their last 4.


Parlay
Senegal - Burundi (AFR CoN QU), Home (-735) + Algeria - Seychelles (AFR CoN QU), Home -2.75 (-154), -114
Senegal is much better than Burundi. Since 2014 they are 9-5-2, the losses coming against Tunisia and Algeria, two very good teams on African standards. They are quite strong at home, too. Burundi only showed good results against teams with lower quality over the last few months. Normally I would expect something like a 3:0 or 4:0 here. Senegal's squad features several professionals from European clubs, M'Bengue (Rennes), Sané (Bordeaux), Mané (Southampton), Kouyaté (West Ham), Diouf (Stoke) and Demba Ba (Besiktas) maybe being the most famous of them.
Algeria is maybe the best African team right now, we were able to see this at the WC 2014. They have various players who are part of European clubs, like Feghouli (Valencia), Mahrez (Leicester), Soudani (Zagreb), Slimani (Sporting) and others. Algeria hasn't lost at home since 2013. Since then there record is 12-2-0 as hosts. Seychelles won't have any chance here. They can't keep up with a team like Algeria. Most of their players come from their domestic league, which is quite low on quality standards. Dating back to 2000, they won only 1 away match (3:0 at Swaziland) and achieved 3 draws along losing the other 19 while most of their opponents were rather bad, too. A 4:0 or higher is easily possible for Algeria.

[posey]

Zambia - Guinea-Bissau (AFR CoN QU), Under 2.5, +100, 0:0, W, +1.00 u.

Parlay
Senegal - Burundi (AFR CoN QU), Home (-735) + Algeria - Seychelles (AFR CoN QU), Home -2.75 (-154), -114, 3:1/4:0, W, +0.88 u

Yesterday: 2-0, +1.88 u.
Record: 7-4, +2.03 u.

Zambia so easy, bookie gift.

Senegal and Algeria dominant, Algeria with the 4:0 at 90+ minutes, but I take it.

[posey]

Östersunds - Mjällby (SWE Superettan), Over 2.75, -115
Big quality difference here as Östersunds is at 2nd (8-4-1) and Mjällby next to last (2-1-10). Östersunds has an offense which is on its own capable of covering the total spread here as they already scored 15 goals in 6 home games. Mjällby's defense is shaky, especially on the road (12 goals conceded in 5 games). Typical game which could end 3:1 or 4:1.

[posey]

Östersunds - Mjällby (SWE Superettan), Over 2.75, -115, 1:0, L, -1.00 u

Record: 7-5, +1.03 u.

Today:

Parlay Hoganas - Hogaborgs (SWE DIV 2 V. Götaland), Home + Spyris Kaunas - Trakai (LIT A Lyga), Away, +145
Odds aren't available anymore, I played this bet some hours ago but hadn't the time to log into the forums.

[posey]

Today:

Parlay Hoganas - Hogaborgs (SWE DIV 2 V. Götaland), Home + Spyris Kaunas - Trakai (LIT A Lyga), Away, +145, 4:0 + 0:3, W, +1.45 u.

Record: 8-5, +2.48 u.

[posey]

Port Melbourne - Avondale Heights (AUS Vict. PL), Under 2.75, -115

[posey]

Port Melbourne - Avondale Heights (AUS Vict. PL), Under 2.75, -115, 0:3, 1/2 L, -0.50 u.

Record: 8-6, +1.98 u.

[posey]

​Sandefjord - Lillestrom (NOR Tippel.), Away -0.25, -114
Sandefjord is at the last place (2-0-10) and lost 9 straight. Lillestrom is at 7 (5-4-3) and won 4 of their last 5. Sandefjord were the best team in the 2nd Norwegian Division last year and won it easily, but they struggle a lot in the Tippeligaen. Lillestrom is a mediocre to good Norwegian team. Normally the bad streak of Sandefjord should continue.

[posey]

​Sandefjord - Lillestrom (NOR Tippel.), Away -0.25, -114, 0:0, 1/2 L, -0.50 u.

Record: 8-7, 1.38 u.

[posey]

Kashiwa - G-Osaka (JAP J-League), Away -0.25, +104

[posey]

Kashiwa - G-Osaka (JAP J-League), Away -0.25, +104, 1:0, L, -1.00 u.

Record: 8-8, 0.38 u.

[posey]

KR Reykjavik - Leiknir (ICE Pepsideild), Home -1.5, -114

[posey]

KR Reykjavik - Leiknir (ICE Pepsideild), Home -1.5, -114, 1:0, L, -1.00 u.

Record: 8-9, -0.62 u.

[posey]

Major leagues in Europe are rolling and after a ton of work I got some time to bet again. All bets 1u flat.

27/9/15

Gijon - Betis, Gijon -0.25, 2.030

[posey]

Kryliya Sovetov - Dynamo Moscow, Kryliya Sovetov +0.25, 1.87

[posey]

Konyaspor - Mersin Idman Yurdu, Konyaspor, 2.05