[LFC1892]

Done in 30 minutes 3-0 Lierse

[spf888]

Good stuff, LFC1892. Thanks for the winner.

[LFC1892]

Enjoy the winnings bro

[LFC1892]

Bolivia
Nacional Potosi-Sport Boys-Under 2.5-@2.07
Stake: 200$

Reason: Risky play if I have to be honest but I like the bet for a few reasons. I wrote about Nacional before (winning the -1.5 ah bet against U.Pando). The team is currently in very good form but I think that they are running out of gas. It's true that they covered and won 3-0 but they showed some lack of creativity against a team that parked the bus. Pando had a red card and Nacional managed to score the last 2 in the 85 and 90 minutes of the game. And this was against the worst defense in the league. They will face another team that will park the bus here but their organization is far far better. They struggled against the worst defense and if it wasn't the red card the game would have probably finished 1-0 or 2-0. I expect a low scoring game.

[LFC1892]

1-0 FT

SOCCER Update Record: 28-19-2
P/L: +8674.7$

Not too shabby

Posting another game soon.

[LFC1892]

Paraguay
Sp Luqueno-Sol de America-Under 2.5-@1.85
Stake: 200$

Reason: I'm going against the line movement here. It's true that we usually see a lot of goals in Paraguay but I think it's enough for this round. There are already 4 Overs and 2 games pending. For all 17/18 rounds so far we have seen only one round with more than 4 Overs. So we have around 94% to win here.

[smithah2]

nice call on paraguay, loooking forward to any Overs you have tomrrow

[LFC1892]

Cheers smithah2 I have 4 games on my list so far.

Israel
Hak.Ramat Gan-Ramat Hasharon-Over 2.5-@1.95
Stake: 250$

Reason: Both teams play in the Leumit League playoff relegation group. Therefore they are not something special. Ramat Gan have the worst defense in the league and I expect a few goals from Harashon today. However Ramat Gan are not that bad at home and they can easily score at least once.

[LFC1892]

Disappoining game in Israel. Very low quality football.

Colombia
Bucaramanga-Valledupar-Bucaramanga HT/FT-@1.83
Stake: 400$

Reason: I have written about Bucaramanga before (X2 winning bet against America de Cali). My arguments are almost the same. The team is currently 1st with 27 points, 8-3-1 Record and 28-8 goal difference. The best team in Colombia for sure. Another influencing fact is that home advantage is playing significant role in Colombia. Bucaramanga played in Copa Aguila a few days ago winning 3-2 but I doubt they will be tired. They played at home after all and there were some rotations in the second half. Valledupar is mediocre team and they are nothing special. They might be lucky to cover the -1.5 handicap but I'm pretty condfident they will be losing at ht/ft.

[LFC1892]

Champions League
Real M-Juventus-Over 2.5-@1.76
Stake: 500$

Reason: Risky play considering that there is an Italian team and we might see one goal or even zero. However both teams are quality in attack and both should score, why not more than once. I can see El Classico in the final.

[LFC1892]

Unlucky last 3 bets. Plenty of profit though.

Honduras
Vitoria-Motagua-Over 2.5-@1.95
Stake: 500$

Reason: No particular reason. We usually see a lot of goals in Honduras and both teams are attack-minded from what I read.

[spf888]

See anything good today, LFC? I need a birthday winner.

[LFC1892]

See anything good today, LFC? I need a birthday winner.

Happy Birthday. Wish you all the best mate.

Fiorentina-Sevilla-Sevilla +0.5ah-@1.85
Stake: 300$

Fiorentina-Sevilla-Sevilla Total Goals Over 1.5-@2.37
Stake: 200$


Reason: I'm currently in a bad row and coudn't spend a lot of time for research...but I like this bet. Emery is better coach than Montela and that's my main argument. Montela totally messed up in the previous encounter and lost 3-0. Both teams have great players and this is basically a 50/50 game but because of Emery I give a slight advantage to Sevilla. They will be organised at the back and they will count on counter attacks. Fiorentina have a poor defense imo and I'm pretty sure they will concede. As far as Sevilla don't fail in defending there is no way that they can lose this game.

[rankslash]

Do you like the Over 2.5 at Fio/Sevilla?

[LFC1892]

Do you like the Over 2.5 at Fio/Sevilla?

Yes there should be at least 3 goals I think.

[LFC1892]

Both bets landed nicely hope you got em spf888. I will be shocked if Sevilla lose against Dnipro in the Final.

Mexico
Guadalajara Chivas-Atlas-Under 2-@1.91
Stake: 250$

Reason: Clasura-Playoffs-Quarter Finals. Very important game for both teams and they will be extremely careful. Both will park the bus probably and we won't see more than one or two goals. The odds are already dropping.

Copa Libertadores Playoff
Boca Juniors-River Plate-River Plate +0.5ah-@1.86
Stake: 200$

Reason: It's the match of the year in Argentina and one of the biggest and most passionate derbies in the world. I will support Boca in this one but I will bet against them because of one interesting reason. In all games between these two clubs we have never seen one of them winning more than 3 in a row on their home turf.

[LFC1892]

I have that good feeling about this game and I'm on X2-@1.80 with 250 more. The game is public already and the ordinary bettor is on Boca knowing they are good at home. However this is a derby and River Plate are too underrated for me. Moroever Boca is currenty losing 1-0 and the players will be stressed knowing they need at least 2 goals and they don't have to concede. River Plate have some fast players in the final third and they might edge it once on counter attacks. Then mission impossible for Boca.

[indio]

I have that good feeling about this game and I'm on X2-@1.80 with 250 more. The game is public already and the ordinary bettor is on Boca knowing they are good at home. However this is a derby and River Plate are too underrated for me. Moroever Boca is currenty losing 1-0 and the players will be stressed knowing they need at least 2 goals and they don't have to concede. River Plate have some fast players in the final third and they might edge it once on counter attacks. Then mission impossible for Boca.

They don't need 2 goals, a 1-0 score gets them to penalties. Boca has a better team then River this year, the opposite was true last year when River bounced them in the Sudamericana. Boca beat them at home 2-0 ten days ago when they scored 2 late goals and with Osvaldo and Pavon both starting for Boca tonight, I think it's payback night at the rocking Bombanara. While the "ordinary" bettor might be on them, that doesn't always mean it's the wrong side. I'm not ordinary, otherwise I wouldn't have pounded Guarani twice against the dysfunctional square darlings Corinthians. The fact that Corinthians was still a futures favorite in this tourney after a 0-2 hole shows how inefficient the books attempt at quality markets is for this tournament.

I played a 7 team entry getting +500 to win this thing back in the group stages, and with Racing, Tigres, Guarani, and Emelec still around and prospering, I like my spot. I might mot win the thing, but I'm a heavy favorite to have at least one of them playing in the final at 5-1 and that will be fun positive equity action no matter what.

[indio]

Reason: It's the match of the year in Argentina and one of the biggest and most passionate derbies in the world. I will support Boca in this one but I will bet against them because of one interesting reason. In all games between these two clubs we have never seen one of them winning more than 3 in a row on their home turf.

If you're really using a meaningless stat like that to bet games, you should quit gambling. That's about as sound as the sap who walks up to a roulette wheel and sees Red hit 10 times in a row so he starts pounding Black. Simple math dictates that winning 4 in a row when you're somewhere between 35 -55% chance to win (as closing lines will estimate) is improbable and not going to happen that often, especially when it takes a couple of years to play 4 homes games in a row in this series. I have a 6.67% chance of calling 4 coin flips in a row, but guess what, when I call 3 correct in a row, the next one is still a 50% chance.

Do you really think that games 15 years ago with Schelloto, Palmero, Delgado, Riqulme and Battaglia have ANY impact whatsoever on what happens tonight?

Statistical trend handicappers are the worst. They can't understand how meaningless most statistical patterns are due to simple variance.

[Mase of Base]

This game get called off?

[plekz]

the river plate players got maced by the boca juniors fans, would be completly retarded if they'd be forced to complete the match after that.

[Mase of Base]

the river plate players got maced by the boca juniors fans, would be completly retarded if they'd be forced to complete the match after that.

Cheers, was hard to translate I couldn't figure out what happened I assumed it was a flair. Wow that's insane it's such an intense rivalry.

[plekz]

nah, no flare, they got a can of mace thrown into the tunnel just as they were walking out for the 2nd half, wasn't pretty at all.

[indio]

Classic commentary from the announcer from whatever channel my stream is on. English is obviously not his native language, but he does well with it, even if his delivery is overly deliberate.

"The players were hit with gas in the tunnel...................A gas attack in the tunnel.....................the River Plate players are burned..............they're all burned........................"

I thought I was listening to a documentary on the Dresden bombings.

[LFC1892]

Crazy fans. Why the hell do you attack the players. If you are some kind of ultras go fight with the other ultras. The Mexican game won at least 0-0 FT. Indio I respect your opinion bro but I doubt I will quit when I have over 7k profit since the start this thread. I use all kind of methods, I dont use statistical betting trends only but I will lie if I say I don't use them as well.

[LFC1892]

Azerbaijan
Simurq Zaqatala-FK Baku-Simurq Zaqatala -1ah-@1.83
Stake: 300$

Reason: I like this bet for a few good reasons. It's true that Simurq is in very bad form currenly but it's time to bounce back. In their last game they outplayed one of the best teams in the league Inter Bacu. Now they will face the worst team in the league with the worst defense and this is a great chance for coming back. Moreover Simurq is one of the best three home teams in the league with 8-2-5 record. Bacu concede 2.1 goals average per game which is simply pathetic. Another argument in favour of this bet is that Simurq have 7 games in the last 200 being favourite within this range with 6-1 record.

[LFC1892]

4-0 FT

Bulgaria
Ludogorets-Lok Sofia-Over 2.5-@1.73 (I took it earlier @1.85 but already dropped)
Stake: 300$

Reason: Ludogorets are already champions, for the fourth time in a row I think. The team that managed to outplay Basel,Real Madrid and Liverpool on home turf in CL. And this game will be very special for them and for their fans. The team will celebrate the opening of their new modern stand immediately after the game with a big concert. So your ticket is basically a ticket for concert as well. The players will do their best to entertein the public. Moreover some of the gifted Brazilian players will be observed by scouts from Roma and Leverkuzen. I expect a lot of goals in this game.

[rankslash]

Outplay Real Madrid is a stretch. They played good, but Real totally dominated the game. With that being said, I like the bet a lot. Ludogorets TT Over 2.5 looks good too.

[LFC1892]

GL mate I remember the game as well outplay is maybe not the right word but Real had one or 2 good chances for the whole game and they scored the winning goal with inexistant penalty. I remember Ronaldo's ugly simulation Anyway let's see some goals now.

[jontebond]

Game looks very tight.... So far show is fail =)

[LFC1892]

Lok.Sofia are playing with 11 players in their own half. When they get the ball they counter with 2 max 3 players. I hate teams like this. I wonder if they will start to attack in the second half since they might lose their EU spot. The most logical thing is to see them chasing in the second half. 2-0 at HT. We need one more goal.

[LFC1892]

4-0 already

[LFC1892]

4-1 FT

Ireland
Shamrock Rovers-Longford-Over 2.5-@2.08
Stake: 300$

Reason: Shamrock is always a title contender and their ambitions are always high. They are currently 3rd with 24 points. Longford are mediocre team, they can't relegate but they can't compete with the top teams as well. They have a good style of playing neither attacking or defensive. When these two teams play against each other we usually see a lot of goals and I expect the same tonight. Longford have nothing to play for so they will play with no tension and they can easily score at least once. Shamrock as one of the best home teams will nail a few as well.

[cosmin57]

good job man !
i like your tips . keep them coming . thank you !

[LFC1892]

Cheers cosmin57. Thanks for the support. 3-2 FT in Ireland.

SOCCER Update Record: 35-23-3
P/L: +8779.2$

I'm posting more games soon. I'm not going out this Friday night.