[TrojanMan8]

Disclaimer: This is my first attempt at this so play at your own risk.

I'll include teams, odds, and book. I'll also try to include a small write-up as time permits.

1. Chicago Fire AH+1.25 @ LA Galaxy -126 (5D)
The Galaxy are notoriously slow starters to the season. They've lost Donovan and Marcelo Sarvas from last year's championship squad. Without Sarvas' cover, I think Magee could steal a goal here. Chicago had a quiet preseason, but did get a win over Premier League side QPR. The Galaxy jetset all over Europe before coming back stateside to drop a game to San Jose.

Record 0-0-0 (0U)

BOL everyone

[TrojanMan8]

2. Over 2.25 Montreal Impact @ DCUnited -117 (5D)
These two teams have combined to score at least 2 in their last 5 meetings. Montreal improved towards the end of last season and started this season well by advancing in the CONCACAF Champions League on away goals over Mexican side Pachuca. DC United netted twice in their CCL win over Alajuense. I think this goes over 2.5, but take the security blanket of the half push.

3. San Jose Earthquakes AH +0.5 @ FC Dallas +103
San Jose greatly underperformed last season and they should be better this year. They had a strong preseason in which they won their last 5, including 2 over MLS competition. FC Dallas has been up and down during the preseason. San Jose has won or draw 4 out of the last 5 vs FCD, but the exception was a 5-0 thrashing in San Jose. I think there’s value here at for plus money.

[gobucks]

Good luck..thanks for your thoughts. Just watching for fun myself tonight. Fire are a draw machine and would love to get a point tonight. After watching DC in Champions league I agree that the over is the play in that game. Looking forward to more MLS analysis.

[TrojanMan8]

1. Chicago Fire AH+1.25 @ LA Galaxy -126 (5D)

Didn't realize that Magee was out long-term. If I would've known that, would've taken the under instead. That Chicago offense looked inept.

Record: 0-1-0 (-1.26U)

[TrojanMan8]

2. Over 2.25 Montreal Impact @ DCUnited -117 (5D)

3. San Jose Earthquakes AH +0.5 @ FC Dallas +103

Record: 0-3-0 (-3.43U)

Yikes! Not the start I wanted. Got unlucky with the 92' winner from FCD

[TrojanMan8]

Going to try a different format this time...

4. Sporting KC vs. NY Red Bull +107 (5D)
Sporting KC started strong last season before a terrible run at the end after Besler and Zusi signed their extensions. I look for them to bounce back this season.
Pros:
- Highly motivated to start this season strong
- Revenge game against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year
- Strong nucleus still intact (Besler, Zusi, Dwyer, Feilhaber)
- One of the best home environments in Sporting Park
- Without Henry commanding defensive attention and providing service, BWP will have to work much harder to score

Cons:
- Dwyer is questionable with a sprained ankle
- Sporting KC have lost 3 straight to NYRB including playoffs (all during their terrible run of form)

[thetrinity]

any lean in orlando and nyfc game

[TrojanMan8]

any lean in orlando and nyfc game

I personally stayed away from this game because I had no strong opinions and wanted to see how both teams performed. The Citrus Bowl is supposed to have 50,000 for this game, but I'm not sure if that crowd creates goals or nerves for OCSC. I like OCSC's squad better on paper, but not enough for me to think that they'll win the game more than 50% of the time.

[TrojanMan8]

4. Sporting KC vs. NY Red Bull +107 (5D)

Record: 0-4-0 (-4.43U)

Dwyer missed two golden opportunities. Maybe I should have listed him as a con...

[TrojanMan8]

5. Over 2.5 New England Revolution @ Seattle Sounders -105 (5D)

8 out of 9 MLS games this weekend have gone under. This game will go against that trend.

Pros:
- Revs picked up additional scorers in Juan Agudelo and Teal Bunbury
- Seattle has a new backline for this season that's still learning to work together
- Dempsey and Martins can score individually and create for each other
- Seattle had one of the highest scoring offenses from last season

Cons:
- Jermaine Jones and Lee Nguyen are out for the Revs

[TrojanMan8]

5. Over 2.5 New England Revolution @ Seattle Sounders -105 (5D)

Record: 1-4-0 (-3.43U)

Finally got a win. No picks from me tonight, but I do agree cogiditiopapa's analysis of tonight's Houston-Orlando game. I'll be back with picks before Saturday's games.

[TrojanMan8]

After the first week and a game, it's painfully apparent that most MLS teams are in poor form. I think there are several factors: players learning new teams, players out of game shape, expansion diluting talent. There should be a distinct advantage to strong teams with familiarity while everyone else plays their way into game shape. I think I would be leaning towards the unders in most games not involving LA, Seattle, Toronto (Jozy & Bradley have years of national team experience together), and maybe even Portland (they scored and gave up a ton of goals last year) until we start seeing more goals.

6. Under 2.5 Chicago Fire vs. Vancouver Whitecaps -126 (5D)
Chicago's offense looked terrible last week. Vancouver has a terrible scoring history at Chicago.

Pros:
- Chicago still doesn't have Magee.
- Vancouver has never scored in Chicago
- Last 3 games in Chicago has produced a total of 0 goals.
- Last year: CHI averaged 1.3 goals/game at home; VAN averaged 0.9 goals/game on the road
Cons:
- The last two games in Vancouver have gone over

7. Toronto FC +0.5 @ Columbus Crew -129 (5D)
Toronto acquired Altidore and Giovinco to pair with Bradley. They started the season off strong with a 3-1 win at rival Vancouver. Columbus lost 1-0 at Houston last week

Pros:
- Bradley and Altidore's national team experience together paired w/ Giovinco should be enough to score goals
- Toronto won all 3 games last year, including both at Columbus
- Tchani will be suspended for this match
Cons:
- Columbus will be playing at home

8. Under 2.5 Philadelphia Union @ Real Salt Lake -122 (5D)
The Union played Colorado to a draw at home, while RSL played to a draw at Portland. 4 out of the last 5 games between these two have been draws.

Pros:
- Both teams played to a 0-0 draw to start the season
- RSL switched to a 4-3-3 system from a 4-4-2 and is still learning the new scheme
- Philly held Colorado without a shot on goal last game
- Rimando is still one of the best keepers in MLS
Cons:
- 3 of the last 4 games between these two have gone over, including both at Rio Tinto

[TrojanMan8]

6. Under 2.5 Chicago Fire vs. Vancouver Whitecaps -126 (5D)
7. Toronto FC +0.5 @ Columbus Crew -129 (5D)
8. Under 2.5 Philadelphia Union @ Real Salt Lake -122 (5D)

Record: 2-6-0 (-4.94U)

[TrojanMan8]

9. New England Revolution vs. Montreal Impact -118 (5D)
After dropping the first two, New England will get a win. Montreal played in the CCL midweek.

Pros:
- Lee Nguyen should be at full strength for the Revs
- Montreal played midweek in the CONCACAF Champions League
Cons:
- Revs offense has been struggling first two weeks

[TrojanMan8]

10. Over 2.5 Sporting KC vs. Portland Timbers +105 (BM)
Sporting KC lost at FC Dallas 1-3 last week. Portland drew with the Galaxy at home 2-2 including 90th min goal from each team.

Pros:
- Portland can score goals on the road and give them up as well
- Sporting KC needs to get a result after a poor start.
- Portland scored 3 goals in both trips to KC last year (MLS / US Open Cup)
Cons:
- Beginning of the year form could mean more shots miss the goal than shots on goal

[buengato]

Any thoughts on san jose vs. chicago?
In my view it will be an easy game for hosts. R u agree?

[TrojanMan8]

Buengato... Agree with you here

11. San Jose Earthquakes vs. Chicago Fire +116 (5D)

[TrojanMan8]

11. San Jose Earthquakes vs. Chicago Fire +116 (5D)

Pros:
- San Jose has been one of the few MLS teams that has been able to score early in the season
- Chicago hasn't had many scoring chances in their first two games
- San Jose scored 3 at Seattle last week
- Chicago is still missing their biggest offensive weapon in Magee
- Getting plus money on the better side at home

Cons:
- My predictions have been shit so far this year

[thetrinity]

under is 19-6 so far

[TrojanMan8]

9. New England Revolution vs. Montreal Impact -118 (5D)
10. Over 2.5 Sporting KC vs. Portland Timbers +105 (BM)
11. San Jose Earthquakes vs. Chicago Fire +116 (5D)

Record: 3-8-0 (-5.96u)

[TrojanMan8]

With teams having to release players for the FIFA international window, I believe that the trend of unders will continue.

12. Under 2.5 DC United vs. LA Galaxy -125 (BM)

Pros:
- LA should struggle scoring goals in the run of play without Keane and Zardes
- LA's best chance to score will be on set pieces or poaching rebounds
- DC United has only scored 1 goal in 2 games this season
Cons:
- DC and LA games have a history of going over

I am also leaning towards taking the ML on DC at +195 or DC PK at +105

13. Under 2.5 Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids -130 (BM)

Pros:
- In Houston's 2 home games, a total of 2 goals have been scored.
- Colorado has yet to score in 2 games this season
- Houston will be undermanned because of call-ups and injuries
Cons:
- Tough to find any substantial ones

Other leans:
Under 2.5 MTL-ORL @ -141 (Too much juice)
MTL ML over ORL @ -109 (Not enough confidence in MTL's offense)

[TrojanMan8]

14. Under 2.5 Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union -121 (5D)

Pros:
- Chicago's offense is still struggling only scoring 1 goal in 3 games
- Philly's offense has been shut out 2 of 3 games
- Last two games between the teams have been under
Cons:
- All of Philly's goals this season have been scored away

[TrojanMan8]

12. Under 2.5 DC United vs. LA Galaxy -125 (BM)
13. Under 2.5 Houston Dynamo vs. Colorado Rapids -130 (BM)
14. Under 2.5 Chicago Fire vs. Philadelphia Union -121 (5D)

Record: 6-8-0 (-2.96u)

Over/Unders were split 5-5 this weekend. Nice to get 3 of the 5.

Might not have a play for tomorrow's game as both the under and DC +0.5 have high juice.

[TrojanMan8]

14. Under 2.5 Orlando City vs. DC United -121 (BM)
Price came down a little bit. I think the value is there.

Pros:
- DC United has scored two goals in three games
- DC United's defense has given up two goals in three games
- Both games in Orlando have gone under
- Hamid is one of the better GKs in MLS

Cons:
- Birnbaum is out for United so Opare will replace him on the back line
- Orlando scored twice last week

[TrojanMan8]

15. Under 2.5 Orlando City vs. DC United -121 (BM)

^^^ Should be #15, not #14


Record: 7-8-0 (-1.96u)

[TrojanMan8]

16. Under 2.25 New England Revolution vs. Colorado Rapids -111 (5D)
Jermaine Jones could make his return today, but I'm hoping his rustiness will hurt the Revs' offense. Since the under 2.5 was -140, I went with Under 2.25 at lower juice. I think this will be a 1-0 game that could go either way.

Pros:
- Colorado has yet to score or give up a goal in 3 games this season
- New England has tightened up their defense and only allowed 1 goal in their last two games (both at home)
- New England has scored 2 goals in their two home games

Cons:
- Last four games between these two have gone over (over 4 years)

17. LA Galaxy PK at Vancouver Whitecaps -142 (5D)

Pros:
- LA will get its attacking players back from int'l duty, who are capable of scoring on the road
- LA will be motivated to get a result after 3 lackluster games
- Vancouver has only beaten LA once in their 12 matches

Cons:
- LA's defense, especially goalkeeping, can let them down

Other leans for tomorrow:
Under 2.5 PHI-SKC @ -123

[TrojanMan8]

18. San Jose Earthquakes PK vs. Real Salt Lake -123 (5D)

Pros:
- San Jose has the highest goals/game in the league
- RSL didn't score in their only other away game this year
- Still think SJ is one of the most underrated values in MLS right now

Cons:
- SJ hasn't beaten RSL at home since 2012

19. Under 2.5 Sporting KC vs. Philadelphia Union -110 (5D)

Pros:
- Philadelphia has only scored in 1 of 4 games this year
- KC has only scored once in two home games
- Zusi is out for KC

Cons:
- 3 of last 4 games between these two have gone over

[TrojanMan8]

16. Under 2.25 New England Revolution vs. Colorado Rapids -111 (5D) [1/2 win/push]
17. LA Galaxy PK at Vancouver Whitecaps -142 (5D)
18. San Jose Earthquakes PK vs. Real Salt Lake -123 (5D)
19. Under 2.5 Sporting KC vs. Philadelphia Union -110 (5D)

Record: 7.5-11-0.5 (-5.31u)

[TrojanMan8]

20. FC Dallas vs. Colorado Rapids -105 (5D)

Pros:
- FCD has won the last 3 matches in the series
- Colorado still hasn't scored this season

Cons:
- Dallas has cooled off since their hot start to the season

[TrojanMan8]

21. New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew -106 (5D)

Pros:
- Columbus played midweek at Vancouver, then travels cross-country to play NE. I'm betting on some tired legs
- NE's offense should continue on the upswing with Lee Nguyen, Juan Agudelo, and Jermaine Jones
- NE demolished the Crew in last year's playoffs 7-3 aggregate (4-2, 3-1)

Cons:
- Columbus won at NE last year

[TrojanMan8]

21. Houston Dynamo vs. Montreal Impact +115 (BM)

Pros:
- Montreal played midweek in the CONCACAF Champions League at Costa Rica, then travels to Houston. Montreal has to be weary from the travel from all the travel and won't be able to field their best squad
- Houston has won the last 4 home games vs. Montreal
- Montreal has yet to win this season

Cons:
- Houston has only won once in 5 games this season

[TrojanMan8]

22. Over 2.5 LA Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders FC -104 (5D)

I believe both teams will score here. Even if one team doesn't, each side is capable of getting 3 on their own. At close to even money, there is good value here.

Pros:
- Last year, Seattle and LA had the two highest scoring offenses in the league. Keane, Zardes, Martins and Dempsey were all top 7 goalscorers
- This year, Martins and Dempsey have scored 3 each through Seattle's first 4 games
- LA was embarrassed last week against Vancouver and should be better offensively this week
- Leonardo (central D) is questionable and LA's GKs tend to be shaky

Cons
- LA's offense has been subpar so far this season

[TrojanMan8]

20. FC Dallas vs. Colorado Rapids -105 (5D)
21. New England Revolution vs. Columbus Crew -106 (5D)
22. Houston Dynamo vs. Montreal Impact +115 (BM)
23. Over 2.5 LA Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders FC -104 (5D)

Last two should be plays #22 and #23.

Record: 8.5-14-0.5 (-7.31u)

Rough start. MLS is tough on trends. Didn't expect to see a team who hasn't scored all season erupting for 4 goals on the road. I looked for news for injuries, lineups, etc., and did not see anything about both Keane and Dempsey missing the Galaxy-Sounders game. Even though both teams created lots of chances, I would have avoided the over there.

I'll probably make fewer picks until I figure out how to turn it around.

[TrojanMan8]

24. Under 2.5 NY Red Bulls vs. San Jose Earthquakes +100 (BM)

Learned my lesson. Need to wait for lineups before making picks. Wondo not starting for this one.

Pros:
- Wondo is not starting since he traveled with the USMNT game in Mexico
- SJ's offense has cooled off (1 G in last 2 games) since their hot start
- NYRB's only other home game this year was 1-0

Cons
- The Red Bulls lead the league in SOG/game

[lucasdawg]

i hope for us both that its 0-2 result.. i took redbulls -1