Originally Posted by
BigBurk
Saturday:
Espanyol (ESP-P) -1 +107* vs Sporting Gijon (ESP-P) (1x)
Sporting Gijon and away matches just don't go together. Out of their 17 played matches they have lost a staggering 11 games, and only won two (at Vallecano and Mallorca). Espanyol is a mediocre home team, but this should not be a problem for them. I have this game set at 2-0 in favor of the home team.
Newcastle (ENG-P) pk -115* vs Wigan (ENG-P) (1x)
Wigan may be the most talked about team lately with stellar perfomances against Arsenal and Man Utd. It has gotten them out of the relegation zone for now, but they are still far from safe. Newcastle has won six in a row with Cisse scoring in each of them, landing them on the fourth place in the Premier League. Even with Wigan's stellar performances lately I still think Newcastle holds the edge over them. I have this game set at 2-1 in favor of Newcastle and am therefore rolling with the hot team.
Borussia Dortmund (GER-1) -1 -123* vs Kaiserslautern (GER-1) (1x)
Even though Borussion Dortmund already took the title I don't see how Kaiserlautern could be able to win this one. They will never make up 7 points to avoid relegation and are horrible at home in the Bundesliga, having not won a single home fixture in 11 games. Even a Dortmund on 50% of their strengt will be able to easily take this one. I have this set at 2-0 in favor of the champs.
Bayer Leverkusen (GER-1) -111* vs Hannover (GER-1) (1x)
This one is a key match-up for place 6 (and/or even 5), which gives right to a place in the Europa League. Leverkusen currently has a three point advantage over Hannover and can bring this up to 6 if they beat Hannover this saturday. Hannover has lost it's last five away matches and has only won 2 out of 16 this year. With the pressure for a European ticket I expect Leverkusen to take this one with the home advantage against one of the worst roadies. I have this game set at 2-0 for the home team.
Heerenveen (HOL-E) pk,+˝ -122* vs SC Heracles (HOL-E) (1x)
Earlier in the season I would have picked Heracles on this matchup, but not this time. Heerenveen is still playing for direct qualification for a Europa League ticket and their competators are all having tough matchups this weekend. Heracles has played very unstable soccer the last couple of weeks since they reached the cup final against PSV and are not even certain to reach the play-offs anymore. Heerenveen is the better team plus I feel they want this more than Heracles does. Even with Bas Dost out, I expect Heerenveen to take this one on the road. I have this game set at a 2-1 Heerenveen win.
Sunday:
Real Madrid (ESP-P) -2 +111* vs FC Sevilla (ESP-P) (1.5x)
There are two main reasons I absolutely love this play; first of they can make a huge step to the title if they win this one while Barca has to play one on the road later the same day. They can even take the title if Barca were to lose at Vallecano. Secondly, I expect them to want to bounce back after their result of this weeks elimination against Bayern Munchen. This could well be a punishment for Sevilla, who have lost six straight against Real and have only won one out of their last four overall. I have this game set at a 4-1 Real win and am therefore rolling with the -2 as well as the over 3˝.
AZ Alkmaar (HOL-E) +˝ -127* vs Feyenoord (HOL-E) (1x)
As mentioned earlier in this thread, Feyenoord will have to deal with the absence of both Guidetti (their top striker) and El Ahmadi. Even though Feyenoord and AZ are tied on second place I think AZ is the better team to begin with, even if Guidetti and El Ahmadi would have played this weekend. Both will want to grab the three points to hold on to the second place (Champions League quali) and I give AZ the edge in this matchup. I have this set at 2-1 in favor of AZ and am therefore rolling with them.
Roda JC (HOL-E) +˝ +117* vs PSV Eindhoven (HOL-E) (1x)
Even though PSV has won two consecutive (home) games against AZ and NEC, they could have just as easily drawn both games. PSV has not been able to grab a road win on their last seven tries and you don't want to play Roda at such a tough streak. They have only lost one out of their last eight home games and due to their recent wins Roda is back in the spot for a play-off ticket. This is a bad time for PSV to meet Roda on the road. I have this game set at 1-1 but could as well see Roda grabbing the win.
Ajax (HOL-E) pk -110* vs Twente (HOL-E) (1x)
Ajax holds a six point advantage on both Feyenoord and AZ (playing eachother sunday) while they have a seven point advantage on Twente as the last week of the competition starts this weekend with only three rounds left in the Eredivisie. Theoretically, Ajax can take the title this sunday at Twente íf they take home the three points ánd Feyenoord and AZ draw. Ajax has been in blistering form lately, going on a winning streak of 11 consecutive matches, while Twente has only won three out of their last 8 matches. I expect a very motivated Ajax and a Twente team trying to play pressure on the Ajax defense. My model shows a high scoring match, with Ajax coming out as winners. I have this game set at 3-2 in favor of Ajax, and am therefore also playing the over 3 goals.
FC Sevilla (ESP-P)/Real Madrid (ESP-P) Over 3˝ -112* (1x)
See earlier write up.
QPR (ENG-P)/Chelsea (ENG-P) Under 3 -128* (1x)
I'll take my chances on this one, as I really don't expect this to go over 3 goals. QPR tends to lose their away games against quality teams without scoring (1-0 Arsenal, 1-0 Newcastle, 2-0 Man Utd, 1-0 last away match vs WBA) while Chelsea will still be feeling the match against Barcelona and probably won't go all out on QPR. I have this game set at 1-0 in favor of Chelsea, and even if they do try to pull out a big win it probably will not be bigger than 3-0.
Ajax (HOL-E)/Twente (HOL-E) Over 3 +108* (1x)
See earlier write up.
Notes:
- When the line on AZ drops a bit further I may ad a unit to the play (back to -136 right now).
- Freiburg vs Köln is at pk -149 at the moment, if the pk, -˝ comes available at approx -120 I'll take it.
That's it! Big card this weekend, let's pray for some winners!