[baskets]

I sometimes see this in soccer and I bet it almost every time.

Last place team that had won 1 of last 17 games and was listed as a slight favorite. Playing the 8th seeded team at home, a team that was averaging exactly 2 goals per game in it's last 6 games or whatever.

And to top it all off, the last place team had been held scoreless in 3 of their last 4 games.

Odds were -110/+100 more or less for a Pick Em.


Why do the linesmakers do this?

[MatI]

Which game was this? Fav won?

[baskets]

The result of that game was 1-1 FT. The dog was up 1-0 w/ about 15 minutes left when the home team got a somewhat flukish goal. But the dog had so many more chances... just couldn't get that second goal.


Anyways, this shit is happening again... in a game today!

Novara has not zero wins in their last 9 games... and has only won ONCE in their last 17 games!!!

Odds on a PICK EM??? +107/-116

Incredible! And Novara has 2 goals in their last 5 games! And those 2 goals were scored when they were trailing 2-0 and 3-0 late in those matches.

And Novara has had the lead only 3 times in their last 17 games. They only managed to win one of those games.

I really don't think this will be Novara's day. Likely be a win or a push.

[baskets]

The first game was Bari @ Nocerina. Nocerina leads Serie B with most goals given up... 47. A whopping 7 more than their nearest competitor.

Interestingly, this is the exact same situation with Novara... they've given up 42 goals. And they give up almost double the goals at home than the league-wide average.

[BigTimeWinner]

I think that's because they are in a must win situation. if they dont' win these kind of games, they'll be out of the league. Though, there is a value on betting against them tomorrow. I am convinced cagliari will be able to get out with a draw to the least, watched them vs milan and they put on a good fight ...

let us know if you find anymore games like this one

[baskets]

Well, **** it. I'm giong to take Cagliari FIRST HALF PICK EM..... -110


Get this, lol,.... NOVARA HAS SCORED ONLY ONE GOAL IN THE FIRST HALF IN THEIR LAST 19 MATCHES.... AND NOT ONCE IN THEIR LAST 12 MATCHES.

And I get this at -110? Soccer gurus, please tell me where I'm wrong here. I just don't get it. I'll gladly risk the opportunity of a push for a shot at the win.

[baskets]

And btw, Novara has been losing at HT in 6 of their last 7 games. This has to be a great bet.

[MatI]

Problem here is Cagliari are not strong away from home. Certainly not a team I would trust on the road in my opinion. odds seem pretty accurate in this spot, with 2 accurate teams.

Novara have a good opportunity here to get some rare points.

[MatI]

And btw, Novara has been losing at HT in 6 of their last 7 games. This has to be a great bet.

Yes, but against much better quality teams than Cagliari.

Also, keep in mind the weather conditions in Italy and rest of Europe at the moment. Novara is in the north of Italy which is where all the snow is falling. Terrible conditions at the moment and may not be many scoring opportunities.

[baskets]

Saw a few Italian matches yest... weather looked fine. I'll ahve to check Novara local conditions.

Still, a team that has zero goals in the first half in their last 12 games... and you get -110 pick em against them... and those are accurate odds? How is this so? I'm probably missing it, but I just don't get it.

If they've only got one goal in their LAST 19 GAMES in the first half.... is the probably for a pick em really -110?

Kepler is going to have to break down the math on this one for me cuz I just don't see it.

[MatI]

I havent checked forecast last couple days to be honest, but I know it has been real bad there for the last 2 weeks pretty much. Check out the Novara area definitely.

Prob worth a shot, especially if you get a push for a draw at HT.

[BigTimeWinner]

guys check out this game, someone posted it on the forum, http://www.flashscore.com/match/GI2WL0Ej/#standings

check out the odds, it ended 1-3 away win as you can see, but just see the standings and odds on away win ... CRAZY.

[baskets]

wtf was that?

#1 team vs. #15 w/ crazy odds like that?

[MatI]

Yeah that is crazy stuff and awesome value first against last. Unreal books were offering those odds.

[baskets]

I honestly think this is basically the same value-type scenario... although the prices/situations are different.

If Novara gets their 2nd first half goal in their last 20 games .... on my bet... so be it. But this is a -110 bet I can't pass up.

[BigTimeWinner]

yeah, can't believe i missed it ... I hope this guy finds us another one

[baskets]

0-0 at HT

Well, Novara does it again... still 1 goal in the first half in last 20 games. I'll play this till the end of the season if it's reasonable.

[MatI]

0-0 FT too. Good you get the push.

[baskets]

Next Novara home game.... Feb 19th.

Atalanta (15) @ Novara (20)

Imagine Atalanta will be (+) for the 1H pick em in that game. I'll try it there as well.

Next for Nocerina at home ... Feb 18th.

Cittadella (11) @ Nocerina (20)