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  1. #1
    allin1
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    Spurs to finish in top 4?

    Las season

    Being a Spurs fan you could say I am biased on this one, but honestly, last year I didn't think it was possible. Champions League fixtures affected their overall form and in the league they just couldn't get enough points from the teams in the bottom of the table. While they got good results against Arsenal and Liverpool, they were beaten by Blakpool and just managed some draws with West Ham, Wolves and other lower teams.

    This season

    This year on the other hand things look different. Scot Parker seems to be a great player, and he showed that yesterday playing for England against the European champions Spain. He constantly frustrated world class players like Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas in midfield and he is doing that week in week out with any English team. Top that with the fact that Van Der Vaart is getting even more used to the league, Bale is improving, and Modric is just top class, for me it seems the situation is quite different. The defense looks vulnerable sometimes but that's when players like Parker, Modric or Sandro come in to support them when needed. Some laughed at the big money Chelsea wanted to pay for a midfielder with poor record on goals and assists, but the facts actually say that last season Modric created about 76 goal scoring opportunities and that he is the 3rd player in the league considering passing and interceptions. What that tells me is that Spurs might have the best midfield in the premiership (also considering dept in squad).

    Europa league

    Harry Redknapp has played a second team in the Europea League making things even better for the first 11 that can concentrate now on getting results in the domestic matches, while teams like Arsenal, the Manchesters and Chelsea will have to deal with Champions League fixtures that will eventually take their toll on the players even with the best rotation possible. They can't just play reserves in the Champions League like Spurs are doing in Europa League.


    All adding up I would say that Spurs are real contenders for the top 4 this season. I would love it to see them again in Champions League next season. Come On You Spurs!

    PS: Because this is a betting forum I also have to add the idea that on the long term I think they will lose only a few matches this season, so I think that betting on every league game on "double chance" or "draw no bet" on Spurs will end up with a profit at the end of the season. You could argue that you can do that on teams like Manchester United or even Manchester City which have even less chances of losing a game, but not so great odds, so overall my guess is that the odds on Spurs will pay out better.
    Last edited by allin1; 11-13-11 at 11:05 AM.

  2. #2
    SiMON2g
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    For me if spurs could fix their problem in central defense they would be title contenders. Of course getting their involves being involved in europe which would require more depth in their squad, I think the signings of Parker and Adebayor have stedied the ship for spurs, and if they could bring in a world class centre half to steady the back 4 and add some depth to their squad i have no doubt that they can match it with United and Chelsea, City on the other hand I wouldn't say so as City are beginning to come into a class of their own.

    I think Spurs will make the top4, and City will claim the title.

    DoubleChance/DNB I can sometimes see the value in this, but only in games against top 6 teams. Match Tottenham against a team like Wigan the odds for Tottenham ML might be 1.50 @ home and 2.00 away, factor in a double chance/DNB market reducing odds you would expect nothing more than 1.20 at home. While I agree with what your saying there are certain games to play this in, some games there will simply be no value, but if you can grab it while tottenham are on the road it may be quite valuable.

  3. #3
    allin1
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    They have 28 games left to play.

    Let's consider the scenario in which they lose 5 of their games that means 18% chances of losing therefor 82% chances of winning. If the average win per bet will be 25% of the stake, putting that in the kelly criterion calculator from http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

    I get this for a 1000$ bankroll:

    The odds are in your favor, but read the following carefully:
    According to the Kelly criterion your optimal bet is about 10% of your capital, or $99.00.
    On 82% of similar occasions, you would expect to gain $24.75 in addition to your stake of $99.00 being returned.
    But on those occasions when you lose, you will lose your stake of $99.00.
    Your fortune will grow, on average, by about 0.13% on each bet.
    Bets have been rounded down to the nearest multiple of $1.00.
    If you do not bet exactly $99.00, you should bet less than $99.00.
    The outcome of this bet is assumed to have no relationship to any other bet you make.
    The Kelly criterion is maximally aggressive — it seeks to increase capital at the maximum rate possible.

    This is a general picture, in real experience every stake for each bet should be calculated for the specific odds so not all of them could be playable according to the kelly criterion. Also the presumption that they will lose only 5 games has to be correct in order for this to work.

    To be honest I thought there will be better odds for their games but it seems that the bookies share my point of view so they sliced them as they were already one of the top 4.
    Last edited by allin1; 11-13-11 at 07:47 PM.

  4. #4
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMON2g View Post
    For me if spurs could fix their problem in central defense they would be title contenders. Of course getting their involves being involved in europe which would require more depth in their squad, I think the signings of Parker and Adebayor have stedied the ship for spurs, and if they could bring in a world class centre half to steady the back 4 and add some depth to their squad i have no doubt that they can match it with United and Chelsea, City on the other hand I wouldn't say so as City are beginning to come into a class of their own.

    I think Spurs will make the top4, and City will claim the title.
    I agree with you on all those points. Man City are definitely on their own league considering the quality and the depth in squad. Actually they are the only ones that seem to have a better midfield than Spurs, but their attacking options are just out of this world... well at least they were until they stopped having Tevez in their squad. It seems like the boy is never going to play for them again.

    I agree with you on the defense issue. They are lucky that King is back but he is not enough considering that he is injury prone. Harry said they are not going to try to buy Cahill again like they did in the summer, but I think it would be appropriate to buy a solid central defender.

  5. #5
    The Special One
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    top 4 is solved, Spurs wont make it unfortunaely

  6. #6
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Special One View Post
    top 4 is solved, Spurs wont make it unfortunaely
    So, besides the Manchester teams who do you think will finish above them? Arsenal who are currently on 7th place with 4 games already lost? Everyone in England thinks this is their worst team in the last 10 years. Perhaps you are thinking about Chelsea and Liverpool? Chelsea are not in great form either, they lost 3 games already, one to QPR, and will be busy with Abramovich's main priority: Champions League. Liverpool have lost only twice (one time trashed by Spurs 4-0) but they are drawing a lot, even at home to Norwich and Swansea.

    I still believe there are big chances for Spurs finishing top 4. Actually, if you look at the odds at most bookamkers and at Betfair you will se that Tottenham are in the top 4 favorites.

  7. #7
    betearn
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    Spurs have to be patience and they have to get some depth in squad...lets assume that King or Bale or Modric or Vaart will get injured, that makes them allready very vulnerable. They got now a good target man and Adebayor will be huge boost, good ball delivers in midfield will give him many chances to score and he is the guy who will take those balls down and will start scoring more and more i guess when he blends in. Also Tottenham is not taking europa league so seriously..playing with very mixed squad and thus guys will be saved for league games...if chelsea and manchester teams are reaching far, the more chances for tottenham in premier league

  8. #8
    Glada Tartan
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    Its possible yes.. they have their chance of a lifetime to end up higher then Arsenal at least

  9. #9
    allin1
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    Simon, Arsenal are a very strange team. Even Sir Alex Ferguson has admitted at the beginning of the season that Arsenal play the most entertaining/ beautiful football, but even if they do, they are not getting the results they should. This year every body are saying that this is their worst team in the last 10 years, first of all because of their defense, and second, because it seems that Van Persie wins the games for them. If he gets injured they could be in big trouble by not being able to get results, and probably that's why Wenger is very careful considering when and how he plays him. If they don't improve in January (transfer market) I can't see them in top 4, because Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs will probably all be in there for the challenge with a better edge. Even so, I can still see Arsenal getting impressive results like the 2-1 win over Barca of last season, they can always surprise you.

  10. #10
    alon7777777
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    City,United,Chelsea and Liverpool
    top 4

  11. #11
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by alon7777777 View Post
    City,United,Chelsea and Liverpool
    top 4
    Chelsea beaten by QPR, Liverpool drew at home with Norwich and Swansea...

    I am not saying that Tottenham will definitely finish in top 4, but I wouldn't write them off to easily either.

  12. #12
    alon7777777
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Chelsea beaten by QPR, Liverpool drew at home with Norwich and Swansea... I am not saying that Tottenham will definitely finish in top 4, but I wouldn't write them off to easily either.
    they have a chance but it dont work that way
    Liverpool will get better
    Chelsea are strong enough
    i'll say Arsenal got a better chance to make the top 4 but Spurs are good Parker is one of the best players in PL

  13. #13
    allin1
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    Another win, 3rd in the table now, 2 points behind the champions with one game in hand. It was hard against West Brom. Until Spurs had the lead, the home side defended really well, not allowing too much open space. Spurs certainly don't look at their best without Van der Vaart and Modric. Such situations will be real tests for Harry and the boys. Bring on Bolton! COYS

  14. #14
    secret007
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    Man City, man utd and chelsea will 100% finish above them. Say what you want about Chelsea's form, do you truly believe you guys will have more points than Chelsea at the end of the season? Tottenham will get 4th or 5th place and yes Liverpool is your main challenger I think. A few weeks ago, I said to my friend that the table will look like this at the end of the season
    1) city 2) utd 3) chelsea 4)lpool 5) tot 6) arsenal

    nothing has changed since then, although right now i think 4 and 5th place will be an interesting battle between lpool and spurs. i hope you guys make it though, i hate liverpool

  15. #15
    allin1
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    I also thought that Liverpool will be there challenging for 4th but it seems they had a slow start with draws at home with Norwich and Swansea. I guess it will take some time for all their new players to gel but I am expecting them to be fighting for that spot until the last game. Also, if Spurs qualify further in the Europa League and Harry decides to play his best 11 to win it, then Liverpool will have a big advantage with their rested players.

  16. #16
    Daveyboy
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    Another 3 points for Spurs on a weekend that City, United, Arsenal, Liverpool (and Newcastle) all dropped points! A top 4 finish looks more realistic week on week

  17. #17
    BetWhisperer
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    They will make top four.

  18. #18
    allin1
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    quote from BBC live commentary on Tottenham - PAOK:

    A controversial defeat for Tottenham, then, and one that leaves their hopes of Europa League progression hanging by a thread. By our initial calculations, Harry Redknapp's boys need a hefty win over Shamrock Rovers in their final group game and for PAOK Salonika to beat Rubin Kazan. In other words... their chances look slimmer than a supermodel's ankles.
    With that being said, I hope Arsenal and Chelsea remain in Champions league to make it harder for them to compete for top 4. With Spurs out of the Europa League it will probably be a tight fight between them and Liverpool. I still can't imagine Chelsea out of the top 4 though, regardless of their actual poor form.

  19. #19
    djdynamite123
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    1) Man City
    2) Man Utd
    3) Tottenham
    4) Arsenal
    5) Chelsea
    6) Liverpool
    7) Newcastle
    8) Everton

  20. #20
    Ace_of_Spades
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    1) Man City
    2) Man Utd
    3) Liverpool
    4) Arsenal

  21. #21
    djdynamite123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ace_of_Spades View Post
    1) Man City
    2) Man Utd
    3) Liverpool
    4) Arsenal
    Should be something like that, I really do think Chelsea wont get in the top 4, also it's either between Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool for them other 2 3rd and 4th spots.

  22. #22
    Daveyboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by djdynamite123 View Post
    Should be something like that, I really do think Chelsea wont get in the top 4, also it's either between Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool for them other 2 3rd and 4th spots.
    I do think Spurs will make top 4 - but you have to remember they're the most in-form team in the league at the moment and that has to end at some point. Whilst Chelsea are all over the place and you'd expect that form to change too.

  23. #23
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveyboy View Post
    I do think Spurs will make top 4 - but you have to remember they're the most in-form team in the league at the moment and that has to end at some point. Whilst Chelsea are all over the place and you'd expect that form to change too.
    Good point.

    When Spurs have key players injured, it will be hard for them to get results out of every match, especially with the teams that will park the bus in front of goal, but that goes for every team even for Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool.

  24. #24
    allin1
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    Good win, even though it was a harsh decision with the red card on Bolton's Cahil.

  25. #25
    allin1
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    Spurs deserved a draw. A lot of controversial decisions against them from the referee. Adebayour was onside, the goal should have counted, not to mention handball from Crouch in the build u of the first Stoke goal, and a foul on Kaboul which should have been a penalty for Spurs.

  26. #26
    djdynamite123
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    Quote Originally Posted by allin1 View Post
    Spurs deserved a draw. A lot of controversial decisions against them from the referee. Adebayour was onside, the goal should have counted, not to mention handball from Crouch in the build u of the first Stoke goal, and a foul on Kaboul which should have been a penalty for Spurs.
    true but some fierce match that from the mighty Stoke against Tottenham! crazy atmosphere. Valiant win for Stoke!!!

  27. #27
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by djdynamite123 View Post
    true but some fierce match that from the mighty Stoke against Tottenham! crazy atmosphere. Valiant win for Stoke!!!
    Intelligent tactics from Tony Pulis. They(Stoke) bossed the first half really well.

  28. #28
    MendozaLine
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    Definitely deserved a point yesterday. Some horrid officiating cost us an equalizer.

  29. #29
    Ace_of_Spades
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    Good, hate the Spuds.

  30. #30
    manutd19
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    Wel lets see but i think their team is better than Manutd's team

  31. #31
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by manutd19 View Post
    Wel lets see but i think their team is better than Manutd's team
    Many say that the current Spurs team is stronger than Man Utds, but Ferguson will grab more points with them because of his tactics and winning experience.

  32. #32
    allin1
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    This month will be a tough test for Tottenham, having games every 4 or 5 days. Injuries are piling up for the defenders which makes them vulnerable at conceding goals from any team imo when you play Gallas+Bassong at center-back. It will be interesting to see if they grab 10 points from Decembers fixtures. It won't be an easy task.

    18: Tottenham - Sunderland
    22: Tottenham - Chelsea
    27: Norwich - Tottenham
    31: Swansea - Tottenham


  33. #33
    allin1
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    Decent win but again it looked worrying in the first half. A point against Chelsea would be great.

  34. #34
    Glada Tartan
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    Pool looks like a hot canditate for top 4...

  35. #35
    allin1
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    Quote Originally Posted by Glada Tartan View Post
    Pool looks like a hot canditate for top 4...
    If the ban for Suarez stays at 8 games, it will be tough. Even with him they didn't manage to beat Wigan, Norwich, Swansea, Fulham.

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