Shakhtar Donetsk/Dinamo Kiev Under 3 goals @ -168;
Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 @ -108;
This could well be a goal-fest as it is Super Cup Final so teams wont play as conservative as they might in the league. I think this game will be one extreme or the other, either a tight 1-0 either way or a 1-1 draw and extra time, or will be a thrashing by Dinamo due to the amount of key players missing for Shakhtar. Most Ukraine journalists are predicting 1-1 / 2-1.
Shakhtar will be without most of their key South American players as they have refused to return to Ukraine after they traveled to France for the friendly against Lyon (hence them being underdogs when normally the lines would be other way around). These players missing include Douglas Costa (27 apps, 4 goals), Alex Texeira (27 apps, 6 goals), Facundo Ferreyra (13 apps, 6 goals), Fred (23 apps, 2 goals), Ismaily (11 apps, 2 goals), and Dentinho. Bernard (18 apps, 2 goals) wont be involved due to resting after World Cup, and Eduardo (23 apps, 9 goals) has returned to Brazil with Flamengo. So some significant absentees, however, Dinamo Kiev are also missing some important players including best defender Kacheridi, midfielders Garmash and Niko Kranjcar are still recovering from knocks, and Miguel Veloso and Jeremain Lens arent involved due to World Cup exertions. Nigerian Striker Ideye has also signed for West Brom so wont be involved. Also doubts about Belhanda's involvement as he may be leaving and was in the World Cup with Morocco of course.
If you look at the predicted line-ups (taken from Football-Ukraine.com) it doesnt look like Dinamo Kiev's side is necessarily stronger on paper than Shakhtar's despite all the absentees. Shakhtar still have Srna, Rakitskiy, Fernando, Taison, Marlos, Ilsinho, and Adriano - all very good players, plus Gladkiy has returned from Karpaty where he scored 10 goals last season so they have plenty of options.
If there is a goal in the opening 15 mins and game is at a face tempo then I will look to bet the Over 1.75 1st half live as a hedge.
Predicted line-ups:
Shakhtar ": Pyatov - Srna Rakytskyy Kucher, Shevchuk - Stepanenko, Fernando - Taison, Marlos, Ilsinho - Adriano. "
Dinamo ": Artem - Silva , Dragovich, Selin, Makarenko - Sydorchuk, Arun, Garmash - Kalytvyntsev, Yarmolenko - Mbokani.