[Vaughany]

THis is too painful to watch! Mulenga is useless

[Vaughany]

Played NEC PK live-in-play! Utrecht down to 10 men, absolute disaster

[Vaughany]

Utrecht can't even keep a corner on the pitch!

[Vaughany]

Are well that one was an epic fail...need FIorentina to win tomorrow big time now!

[Vaughany]

Adding 5.2 units on Over 2 goals in Palermo/Catania game @ -203...expecting at least 2 in this game after seeing the line-ups

[Vaughany]

Wonder goal from Miccoli early on! Perfect start...Catania have to play more attacking now

[Vaughany]

Another goal for Palermo early in second half...just need one more now, preferably from Catania

[thes0vereign]

Good call on the over, Vaughany. Glad I decided to tail it.

[Vaughany]

And Ilicic makes it 3-0 so the Over hits. I can't see Catania scoring now, they are playing like shiiit...gonna add 0.7 units on Palermo PK @ +104 (live-in-play).

[Vaughany]

Adding 1 unit on Betis/Real Over 3 goals live-in-play @ -182

[Vaughany]

Adding 1 unit on Betis/Real Over 3 goals live-in-play @ -182

Lost this but hit Under 2 goals live-in-play at 70min mark...I had a flashback to opening game of season when Sevilla were leading Madrid 1-0 and game was exactly the same...Real off the pace and not showing any creativity or drive... so pulled the trigger on the under!...

2:22pm 24-Nov-12

24-Nov-12

Soccer Total

Real Betis/Real Madrid (U 2) for Game. [Live! 1-0]

+156

100.00

156.00

[Vaughany]

Resurecting this thread which I abandoned to focus on MMA/boxing betting. Plays will probably suck now that Im posting them in a thread but want to start posting them in here rather than on my MMA thread. First plays are:


2 units on Besiktas -1 A.H. @ -166 at home to Akhisar Belediyespor (Turkish Super Lig):

Always risky betting on erratic Turkish league but can't resist a play on Besiktas tonight. They have finally found some consistency and form winning 4 and drawing 1 out of last 5, and scoring 3 goals in each of their last 4 league games. Besiktas also beat the in-form Antalyaspor (joint top of league) 5-3 away from home last wknd, Antalyaspor were on a 9 match unbeaten run and second in the league so it was an impressive win and will give them a lot of confidence going in to this home game. Akhisar meanwhile are the opposite, losing 4 in a row including a loss in the Cup to Tokatspor who are mid-table 2 divisions below the Super Lig. I think Besiktas should win this by a couple as long as they don't get complacent thinking it will be a walk-over. Akhisar have been better away from home with 2 wins and 2 draws which is slightly concerning, however, Besiktas should be too strong and I expect a similar result to the 3-0 home win Besiktas had against second from bottom Mersin a couple wknds ago, and a win today would take them joint top of the league.

+1.2048 units

Adding:


1 unit on West Brom to Score Over 1 goal @ -124 away at Sunderland (Pinnacle).

Sunderland finally won a game after going 7 on bounce without winning with an impressive 3-1 win away at Fulham last wknd (although Fulham had Hangeland sent off in first half that helped a lot!). They will be very keen to continue from this against West Brom tomorrow and should be able to get a draw at least. However, I'm backing West Brom to Score Over 1 goal on Pinnacle (stake back if they score just 1 goal), as I think Odemwingie and Shane Long are very dangerous and an under-rated partnership up front. They also have Morrison and Gera supporting from midfield who are two solid players who can provide assists and score a couple as well. They have could substitute options as well in Lukaku, Brunt, and Dorrans. West Brom have won 3 on the bounce including an impressive 2-1 win at home to Chelsea last wknd. West Brom have scored at least 1 goal in every game this season except in the 3-0 loss away at Fulham, but key player Odemwingie was sent off in first half of that game so their chances of scoring after that were always going to be slim away from home with 10 men and best striker off the pitch. Sunderland have a rather slow and cumbersome defense with John O'Shea, Bardsley, and Cueller, although Danny Rose at left back does offer pace but he isn't a natural left back and can be caught out of position at times. Their best defender Wes Brown is still out injured. I feel the likes of Odemwingie and Shane Long who both have pace and good movement can definitely exploit Sunderland's lack of pace and athleticism at the back tomorrow. This would be a bigger play but Sunderland even with their dodgy defense do tend to keep the goals down at home - they have not conceded more than 1 goal in any home game this season. Although West Brom might not win tomorrow, I do expect them to score at least 1 goal and if we're lucky maybe 2.

+0.8065 units

Additional play for tomorrow:


5 units on Utrecht PK/DNB @ -114 away at NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie);


I'm not a big fan of betting on Dutch league as it can be so random. One week a team will win 5-1 against a team of a similar level then a week later go and lose to bottom of the league 3-2 or something! Nonetheless, I can't resist playing Utrecht PK/DNB after seeing how many regular starters NEC have unavailable. Twente are coming off a solid draw at home to title challengers Twente, whilst NEC on other hand were whooped 4-1 by Vitesse. Not only did NEC lose 4-1, but they also had 3 players sent off which is has added further issues to an already depleted squad. So going in to this game against Utrecht they have the following key players unavailable: Conboy (9apps, defence), Cmovs (11apps, defence), Amieux (4apps, defence), Palsson (7apps, 1 goal, midfield), Evander Sno (7apps), & Ryan Koolwijk (13apps, 4 goals, midfield, Vice-Captain, joint top-scorer). A couple of other players who are usually substitutes are also out (Loen & Van den Meiracker). So that is a good bulk of their defence and midfield missing, and I believe Ryan Koolwijk in particular is going be a significant loss as he is key player at taking set-pieces, distributing the ball from midfield, and scoring goals. They still have a few dangerous players going forward in Soren Rieks (attacking midfield), Navarone Foor (attacking midfield), ten Voorde (attacker, 2 goals), Platje (attack and joint-top scorer with 4 goals), and Leroy George (attacker, 2 goals) so if they perform it's not out of the question that NEC can get something out of this game. The Manager has said that he wants them to continue playing their attacking style so this should lead to an open game and we could see a few goals, hopefully more coming from Utrecht, so Over 2.5,3 or Over 3 could also be a wise bet. With the partnership up front of Mulenga (11apps, 5 goals) and Gendt (11apps, 5 goals) Utrecht can certainly score a couple and should be able to take advantage of NEC's inexperienced and weakened defence. Aside from NEC's absentees, Utrecht also have a few players out in defender Nilsson (3apps), and attackers Duplan (6apps, 1 goal), & Van Der Gun (11apps 2 goals) however Nilsson and Duplan are usually substitutes anyway so the only significant loss is der Gun. Midfielder Sarota (11apps) is a doubt as well but hopefully this will give the young Japanese prospect Yoshiaki Takagi the chance to be in starting line-up and shine and this really could be the perfect game for him to do that.

Utrecht also have solid away form, with 4 wins, 2 draws, and just 1 loss which came in their last away game at RKC and was a 4-0 thrashing which is a bit concerning. If they perform like that again then they will lose this even against a weakened NEC squad. Nonetheless, their away from is still better than their home form and have scored 13 goals away from home conceding 9. This bodes well against a team in NEC that have also not been performing as well at home with just 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses, scoring just 6 goals and conceding 12. That one win did come in their last home match against Heracles and their two losses have come against two title challengers in Ajax and Twente so their home form is perhaps not as bad it may seem. So for now the play is Utrecht PK/DNB and may play the Over 3 goals at +110 range later tomorrow after seeing the line-ups. Alternatively I may wait until game has reached 15-20 minute mark and play an Over or add more to Utrecht PK live-in-play depending on how things are looking and how Utrecht are approaching the game.

-5 units

Adding:


0.5 units on Zulte-Waregem PK/DNB @ +181 away at AA Gent.

I think Zulte are being under-valued here, Gent may have the better team on paper but they aren't performing well winning only 1 out of last 8 games. Zulte on the other-hand have won 4 away games in a row conceding just one goal, leading to the best away record in the league with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, conceding the fewest goals in the league away from home (4). This would be a bigger play but keeping it small as Zulte striker and second-top goal scorer Habibou will not play due to slight hamstring strain.

+0.905 units

Also added:


2 units on Stoke PK/DNB @ -183 at home to Fulham;

Stoke are unbeaten in last 12 home games at the Britannia whilst Fulham have won 1 game away from home. Fulham have some key players out through injury/suspension including Captain Brede Hangeland (12apps), Kieran Richardson (5apps, 1 goal), Kacaniklic (10apps, 2 goals), & Bryan Ruiz (9apps, 1 goal). Hangeland's suspension is a big blow for a game like this against one of the more physically imposing sides in the Prem. Without Hangeland at the back the likes of Jonathan Walters and of course Peter Crouch should have more success, especially in the air from crosses and set-pieces. This would be a bigger play but you can't count Fulham out as they do have good attacking options in Berbatov (8apps, 5 goals, 3 assists), Petric (7 apps, 4 goals), & Rodallega (10apps, 1 goal). These players can change a game in an instant, however, against a hard-working gritty team like Stoke, I could see likes of Berba and Petric struggling with the physicality of players like Huth. It's these kind of games when you are at a fortress like the Britannia with key players missing where you need players to up their work-rate but you just can't put too much faith in that with players like Berbatov. Also, without Ruiz and to a certain extent Richardson there isn't much creativity in the side other than Petric and Berbatov.

+1.0929 units

1 unit on Catania to Score Over 1 Goal @ -124 away at Palermo (Pinnacle - stake back if 1 goal scored);

The Sicilian Derby is tonight with struggling Palermo hosting Catania who are 7th in the league. Catania are not very good away from home but I still think they should be able to score at least 1 goal against a struggling and inconsistent Palermo side that under new Coach Gasperini like to play a 3-4-3 formation.

PUSH

And Ilicic makes it 3-0 so the Over hits. I can't see Catania scoring now, they are playing like shiiit...gonna add 0.7 units on Palermo PK @ +104 (live-in-play).

-0.7 units

Adding:


2 units on Kasimpasa PK/DNB @ -147 at home to Orduspor (Turkish Super Lig);

Again, erratic Turkey Super Lig so not going as big as I'm tempted to, but I don't see Kasimpasa losing today at home to Orduspor. Kasimpasa have only lost one game at home this season and that was to the most in-form team in the league in Besiktas at end of last month so is nothing to be ashamed of. Orduspor on other hand are yet to win a game away from home and haven't won a game in their last 6 matches (home or away). I actually bet on Orduspor PK last Monday when they were at home to Trabzonspor as I thought Trabz would struggle without two key players in Zokora and Adrian. Instead Trabz proved to be the better side and at half-time I decided to arb out of my play on Orduspor PK with Trabzonspor PK as it just didnt look like Orduspor were going to score. They seemed a bit leggy and it proved to be a good decision as Trabzonspor went on to win 2-1. Kasimpasa meanwhile have looked a lot better since Shota Arveladze took over and I think they will scrape a 2-1 win today.

PUSH

Adding:

0.69 units on Everton/Norwich Under 3 goals @ -138;

Everton without Phil Neville, Mirallas, and most significantly top-scorer Fellaini. I might regret not playing Norwich +1 A.H. but at least if Everton win 2-0 I'll still have a winner and if it's 3-0 a push. I think Norwich will be able to keep it tight though and keep it at 1-1 like last season's meeting at Goodison Park, or worst-case lose 2-1.

+0.5 units

Adding 5.2 units on Over 2 goals in Palermo/Catania game @ -203...expecting at least 2 in this game after seeing the line-ups

+2.5616 units

Adding 1 unit on Betis/Real Over 3 goals live-in-play @ -182

Lost this but hit Under 2 goals live-in-play at 70min mark...I had a flashback to opening game of season when Sevilla were leading Madrid 1-0 and game was exactly the same...Real off the pace and not showing any creativity or drive... so pulled the trigger on the under!...

2:22pm 24-Nov-12

24-Nov-12

Soccer Total

Real Betis/Real Madrid (U 2) for Game. [Live! 1-0]

+156

100.00

156.00

+0.56 units profit


Total profit so far: +1.9308 units (7 wins, 2 pushes, 3 losses)

[Vaughany]

Adding:


5 units on Olympiakos PK/DNB @ -169 away at PAOK;

This could be a risky bet as the Olympiakos/PAOK games are always very fiery and often crazy shiit happens! Olympiakos are also coming off the CL game away at Schalke so their may be some fatigue with certain players as well. Nonetheless I'm playing the PK as I just feel Olympiakos will have too much class for PAOK tomorrow and will want to pretty much wrap up the league by beating second place PAOK and going 11 points top. Olympiakos are unsurprisingly the most in-form team in the league - unbeaten this season and have won 5 and drawn 1 out of last 6 games, scoring 15 goals and conceding just 2. PAOK were in good form but this was dented last weekend when they lost 2-0 to PAO away from home. PAO could of easily won that came by a couple more and PAOK also had GK Jacobo sent-off which means he will miss this game against Olympiakos tomorrow. For me this is quite significant as it's a lot of pressure for reserve keeper Glykos to deal with, and from what I've read on forum PAOK fans don't have much faith in this keeper! Last season Olympiakos won 2-0 away at PAOK and I'm expecting a similar result tomorrow.


5 units on Panathinaikos PK,-0.5 @ -140 away at Platanias;

Panathinaikos have won 2 games on the bounce since Rocha took over as manager including a solid 2-0 win at home to PAOK last wnd as mentioned above. Platanais meanwhile have the second-worst form in the league with 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses out of their last 6 games. I expect PAO to continue their resurgence under Rocha and scrape a 1-0 or 2-1 win tomorrow;


2.5 units on Kerkyra PK/DNB @ -146 at home to Veria;

Kerkyra have only lost one home game this season against Atromitos on opening day. Veria are the most out-of-form team in the league, drawing 2 and losing 4 out of their last 6 matches, scoring 3 goals and conceding 13. Last weekend they suffered an embarrassing 4-0 loss at home to bottom of the league AEK Athens, and have only scored 1 goal in their last 5 games. Kerkyra on the other hand have had very respectable draws against two of the better teams in the league in PAO & PAOK, and also beat third in the league Panionios 1-0 away from home. With this in mind I have to side with the home team here.

[Crapple]

Love your picks and write-ups dude! Of course, as luck would have it, I was all over your Utrecht pick and none of the others!! My wife looked at me funny after I audibly said, "Fukkin Vaughany! when I checked the score. lol! I said it like this..."Vog-haney" Is that right? No Matter...Keep up the great write-ups. I don't know dick about soccer but am gaining in knowledge and a like for watching the sport since beginning to read this forum.

Thanks for the time you put in my brotha!

[Grabaka]

Love your picks and write-ups dude! Of course, as luck would have it, I was all over your Utrecht pick and none of the others!! My wife looked at me funny after I audibly said, "Fukkin Vaughany! when I checked the score. lol! I said it like this..."Vog-haney" Is that right? No Matter...Keep up the great write-ups. I don't know dick about soccer but am gaining in knowledge and a like for watching the sport since beginning to read this forum.

Thanks for the time you put in my brotha!

I yell "Fuacking Vagooneys". Im sure that aint right but still do.

[Vaughany]

Added:


2 units on Southampton PK/DNB @ -145 at home to Newcastle;

I don't like betting on Southampton, they are very average, but this is more of a fade against Newcastle after seeing their performance at home to Maritimo on Thursday and more significantly due to their injury problems. Newcastle will be without key players such as Ben-Arfa, Cabaye, Coloccini, and also squad players such as Gosling, Ryan Taylor, Vuckic, & Obertan. Ben-Arfa and Cabaya are particularly significant as they are the two key creative players for Newcastle and without them they are reliant on Ba and Cisse creating their own chances. As bad as Southampton are this is a great opportunity to snatch a much needed win today at home. I think a draw is perhaps most likely and may be the smarter play but I'm going to take a stab at Southampton PK.

[Vaughany]

Adding:


1.45 units on Sampdoria/Bologna Over 2 Goals @ -145;

Like the Sicilian Derby last night I think this is being slightly undervalued and was expecting this line to be closer to -160 to -175 range. Bologna aren't really a side that just sit back and defend, with the attacking tridente of Diamanti, Gilardino and Gabbiadini could easily score 1 or 2 goals and I was tempted to play Bologna PK at +150 as well as I do believe they offer a bigger attacking threat than Sampdoria who are still without best striker Maxi Lopez. Both teams bounced back from some poor form with big wins last wknd, Bologna beating Palermo 3-0 at home, and Sampdoria winning the big derby 3-1 against Genoa so both should have some confidence going in to this game. The last 6 encounters between these two has seen at least 2 goals in each one (3 have gone over 2 goals).

[bassytelfair]

Nice bets mate , keep up the good work ! im thinkin to take something. what u advice for a single safe bet ?

[Vaughany]

Nice bets mate , keep up the good work ! im thinkin to take something. what u advice for a single safe bet ?

Cheers bud.

My favourite bet for today is probably Fiorentina PK....but Jovetic isnt playing so not as confident as I was.

[bassytelfair]

Thanks man ! we'll see how it goes . I bet 20 euro to win 45 )

[Vaughany]

Morleo sent off after just 5 minutes for Bologna...probably not a good thing for the Over 2 as Bologna will just sit back and defend now...Samp will probably just scrape a 1-0 win At least I didnt play the Bologna PK

[andy888888]

when i see bologna now a days i think about how we chanted SERIE B SERIE B SERIE B to the bologna fans next to us the other week hahaha, maybe we can get sorensen back <3

[Vaughany]

Adding 2.175 units on Sampdoria -0.5,-1 A.H. @ -145 live-in-play.

[Vaughany]

Shiiit Torino taken the lead against Fiorentina...missing Jovetic big time

And of course it's Cerci who is owned by Fiorentina...why don't these teams put clauses in their contracts so they cant play against them!

[Vaughany]

Kerkrya concede in 87th min to ruin 1-0 lead! This could be a disastrous day!

[Sam_Hawkins]

Kerkrya concede in 87th min to ruin 1-0 lead! This could be a disastrous day!

yeah well that sucked...

[BigBurk]

Did you go with Vitesse AH +2?! They are up 1-2.. who else than Bony just put them ahead!

[Vaughany]

Did you go with Vitesse AH +2?! They are up 1-2.. who else than Bony just put them ahead!

Unfortunately not...kickin myself right now!

[Vaughany]

Fiorentina 10 shots off-target!

[Sam_Hawkins]

well fiorentina certainly has some sweet chances...

[Vaughany]

Penalty for Fiorentina

[Vaughany]

Gotta bad feeling about this...

[BigBurk]

1-1!!

[Vaughany]

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooool

[Vaughany]

I think Glik going off was a big blow for Torino...his partnership with Ogbonna is key for them...we could snatch a win now with the momentum