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The market pretty much sees that Kentucky failed to cover here and that is important to note; but analysts who understand the often underestimated importance of the opening line have a middle result here.Originally Posted by KVB
This leads to a problem with some metrics and proves that passing on Mich St/Kansas is a wise idea.
RI/Oregon
The sharp forecast says Rhode Island beats Oregon 72-70. The public gauge has Oregon winning 71-67.
The line opened just above the gauge with Oregon -5 and it sits there now. The Total opened at the gauge and has moved toward and then through my line. For the total, it’s a classic example of the public going too far, but the line doesn’t give us much value to work with. The Total is likely a pass.
The line has held pretty steady here. The public will point towards Oregon but that forecast keeps it still. In fact, there is a sense here that the Oregon line is too low, like Kentucky, who failed to cover.
This sounds good but a metric indicates the moneyline will fail here and other metrics along those same lines move money away from RI.
That could be a bit too much for Oregon to handle at this low line. I get the feeling the books aren’t moving much because they don’t want to tip any hand.
This is making out to be quite a little upset and would certainly be a surprise to the marketplace. I’m watching the market closely and may pull the trigger on RI. Just when I do that, however, we see an Oregon blowout to remind some of us not to disrespect the system at play; to remind us why metrics say what they do and question the contrarian attitude.
We have time.
Five points in the first minute puts them on pace for 200 points.
It only gets better from there, right?
Manster makes a good point here.
How about the nip slip in the Drink Alone video? It's a dooooozy.
USC/Baylor
The sharp forecast has a 69-69 tie with USC getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score. The public says Baylor wins 73-66.
The line opened just below the gauge and has moved toward the forecast. The Total opened higher than the numbers and has moved toward the forecast, but not enough. I think it should have moved more. Now as I write this I see it coming off of 142 to 141.5. The pressure on the Under is there and real and is countering the public. The problem is that the high open already slowed some money down. They are collecting on the Under but for good cause, those bettors have been patient. I’m waiting before deciding here.
The line has moved towards everyone’s darling, USC. They are in a position to really disappoint here and I believe metrics indicate they might. If Michigan St can beat Kansas, which is entirely possible at this point, known after game tip, then USC could be a bad moneyline bet.
I’m actually looking more and more at RI to take the role and metrics show they could beat Oregon. Sticking with the Pac 12, the forecast has Cinci beating UCLA, so maybe some patience there.
Some metrics are still finalizing based on information from the market to determine if we should press the forecasts in each of the cases.
The Rhode island Line is falling and I have take Rhode Island +5 (-110) and +193 over Oregon.
The falling line is worrisome but the bet is a still a go at these levels.
Good Luck
If Michigan State and Kansas gives the OVER, then the USC/Baylor game becomes a good Under bet. The problem, is that it already showed and the market clicked. Now, with all this middling, analysts are rightfully gun shy and I was busy writing.
It also means I was not patient and took the wrong UNDER.
Hopefully it is misleading and Mich St/Kansas stay Under.
It's public vs. the sharps on this one.
That doesn't mean anyone with an Arkansas bet is sharp. It just means that any non sharp with an Arkansas bet doesn't matter to the situation.
To get you into the thinking, I wouldn't be worried if Oregon opened up a lead before the USA/Baylor game starts.
Once it starts, the we'll see the true nature of the game.
Not so fast, there's still the Cinci/UCLA game at the end.
Expect Rhode Island/Oregon to be around the line at those key times.
S. Carolina/Duke
The sharp forecast has a 74-74 tie between South Carolina and Duke with Duke getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge says Duke wins 74-68.
The line opened above the gauge and has ticked toward the forecast. The total opened at the gauge and has moved toward the forecast.
There are too many things at play to make a decision at this time. There is strong underdog support from sharp elements and some of them may be pulling off the underdog bet here.
Anything to get off of the upset or onto the public favorite of Duke bodes well for the forecast and the upset.
We have to wait and see here. It looks like we are seeing money go towards Duke but some money has already spoken on South Carolina. In last night’s posts we saw that Virginia money had already spoken when Florida money was drawn. Florida blew them out and it was ugly.
The Arkansas/NC game is close and there is a lot of time left. You know where the sharps are, but can they hold on?
I have picked up UNDER 142 (-105) for USC vs. Baylor.
Good Luck
The Oregon 5 point lead turned into a Rhode Island 8 point lead at half.
The change occurred after the USC/Baylor game tipped, as predicted, but that's not the change I was looking to get.
Uh-Oh.
One moment you are staring at a school of fish and thinking "we're eating good tonight!"
Then, all of the sudden...
I do not have enough indications to press the South Carolina spread forecast. Those strong elements hitting the underdog in Arkansas I posted about have won their bets. Can they get South Carolina too?
Cincinnati/UCLA
The sharp forecast shows Cincinnati beating UCLA 72-71. The public gauge says UCLA wins 79-77.
The line opened above the gauge and has moved on public support as well as increasing pressure on UCLA to cover the spread. The total opened between the numbers, closer to the gauge, and has only slightly ticked upward as the public exuberance is there, but the line is high and there is a little bit of “organic” Under pressure that is known to move lines.
Again we have a top Pac 12 team with a low line. The forecast helps keep it low and this game has some of the makings of an upset. UCLA could be facing a very tough Cinci team tonight.
Before I can say so, however, we need to let the market simmer for a bit and let some of this action play itself out.
Edit: This should have been posted 10 minutes ago. I am still watching but we are seeing pressure on Cinci already.
Notice the money flowing to Cinci after Oregon pulled out the win. I think that line movement isn't all it's cracked up to be as it doesn't reflect a lot of sharper analyst action being pushed to UCLA.
Many along the lines would counter the line move and take UCLA.
My metrics say go and I'm once again walking into the fire with Cincinnati +4 (-105) and +178 over UCLA.
Good Luck
The moneyline represents little value on the above trade but the spread of +4 is good.
The line has pushed back upwards, as I had expected. We saw -3.5 and we may see -4.5. If so, I will strike again.
This play will lose but I would take it again under the same circumstances any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
I picked up Cincinnati +4.5 (-112) and +207 over UCLA LIVE.
Good Luck
This is wrong. It's +5.5 (-112) NOT +4.5. They are at commercial break so I don't think my timing should be too suspicious here.
Got a little greedy and gave back some gains. I wasn't here in the middle of the game but had I been here I would have been talking about how Duke was leading and at the spread until close to the UCLA tip. When Cinci led early and South Carolina took the lead, the sharks would have come out.
At that point I might have suggested a UCLA halftime bet, but I wasn't able to see the lines or the analyze the market.
The forecasts bounced back a bit from yesterday with a 6-2 performance against the spread, The total forecasts for Sunday were 6-2 against the open and 4-4 against close.
It's been a long few days and now it's time for a break.
Here are the forecasts for the NIT:
Illinois St. 63, UCF 62
Tex Arlington 73, Akron 70
Illinois 73, Boise St. 67
Colorado St. 73, Bakersfield 70
CBI games in conferences I'm covering:
Utah Valley 80, Rice 69
George Wash 76, UIC 67
Posting these as they will be tracked.
Grapes, check in yo.
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all of our dad's served in the Navy at one time or another...they were all "sea men"!
The first game has tipped but here are the NIT forecasts...
Richmond 75, TCU 70.
Ole Miss 71, GTech 70
already got my bath in
http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1490135400361.webm
now im lookin to get my day started , I wonder who delivers this early
Wtf is this.
30 hrs in 48!!!
Day off!!!
Link fckd up.
Holla.
NIT Forecasts, one game has tipped:
UCF 66, Illinois 64
Bakersfied 72, Tex Arlington 72
Posting because they are tracked.
Graaapes!
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PerfectGrape gave KVB 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
