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thanks bro...I missed that....I hope all fly me crew posters had a very profitable day!.......I'm loving the Big East teams tomorrow...thinking about doing a 3TM 8PT teaser (-120)....Marquette (+9), Creighton (+8), Seton Hall (+9)...
...look good to you KVB?...
I have Marquette winning by 6 points, Creighton only losing by 5, and Seton Hall winning by 2 points.
That teaser looks good from my numbers.
Manster, these are for you...
^^^....
ok so I did a 4TM 8PT teaser for tomorrow's action so I could get plus money...
Wager type : Teaser Teaser : Special 10fb 8bk
#1) Sport : NCAA Basketball for Game
Selection : Marquette 3/17/2017 6:50PM - (PST)Spread +9½ for Game
#2) Sport : NCAA Basketball for Game
Selection : Seton Hall 3/17/2017 10:30AM - (PST)Spread +9 for Game
#3) Sport : NCAA Basketball for Game
Selection : Miami Florida 3/17/2017 6:20PM - (PST)Spread +5½ for Game
#4) Sport : NCAA Basketball for Game
Selection : Creighton 3/17/2017 1:30PM - (PST)Spread +8 for Game
Risking : 200.00 To Win : 250.00 USD
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Soccer
Spain - La Liga
Las Palmas vs Villarreal
My forecast has it Las Palmas 1 - Villarreal 1. Giving an total of 2 for the game.
I will not focused much on the ML. I'm much more interested in the total.
The total opened at 2,5 in the early of the month on some houses. From early it moved till it reached 2,25, this is when Pinny joins at 06 of March.
In this time no one cares about this game besides the "openners hiters" with some stats model.
Since that time, it didnt move much till yesterday and today.
From Yesterday the line moved all the way to the 2,75 total pressured by what i imagine that is the public money coming in.
The public gauge is on the Over in this game. So is alot of pressure of public action in the over.
I will follow my prediction and taking an contrarian public bet.
Took the UNDER 2,5 @ 2,13 or in american odds +113.
Last edited by omedo; 03-17-17 at 10:33 AM.
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OK St./Mich St.
The sharp forecast says Michigan beats Oklahoma St. 77-67. The public gauge has Michigan winning 80-78.
Pressed for time this morning and it will be a bummer if Ok St. wins this as I won’t have it.
The line opened close to the gauge and moved towards the forecast; the same for the total.
The public likes Michigan but I am wary. Metrics do indicate a pass here but they are just a click away from taking OK State. Let’s see some money flow first before countering forecasts.
Sports can be tough, like last night, the market told us to be patient. The problem is, just after the market does thing like that, the early bird gets the worm.
Over the short term, it can be a tough balance between being wise and patient and the early bird who gets his.
I have a little more time than I thought so let me add to this that there is pressure on Oklahoma St. based on sharp metric that draws action. The metric is based on a fundamental premise of the markets. It’s a technical based on a fundamental.
In this metric, there becomes a point where the percentage of success caps. When it goes over certain factors, which is pretty high, it fails almost every time.
Often this has to do with volume and who is where, it’s usually not much of a mystery.
I passed on this game because of these phenomena. I have been there many times where the team in Oklahoma State’s position is the bet short term, and it becomes a frustrating game for them.
Let’s see where the chips fall in this one.
That's a good thing to notice.Originally Posted by omedo
...The total opened at 2,5 in the early of the month on some houses. From early it moved till it reached 2,25, this is when Pinny joins at 06 of March...
And that pic...
The sharp forecast says New Mexico St. beats Baylor 72-63. The public gauge says Baylor wins 72-63.
The line opened Baylor -12 and while it ticked up briefly to -12.5 the pressure has pulled back down. We could see 11 here. Imagine that, the Total opened right at 135. The public of course likes their Over, but some traders are directed to the Under. That money can move markets and we could see a drop despite having public sentiment on the Over. In fact I think it’s 134.5 in many places and some that have dropped have gone back to 135.
It’s bit early in the day but metrics do lean towards New Mexico State. They are forecasted, so I will not press the underdog. One way or another, money will start to flow, even the pace of the first game today will start the flow.
There should be healthy upsets today; I’m hoping to see the market lead us to one.
The sharp forecast has Seton Hall beating Arkansas 70-68. The public gauge says Arkansas wins 74-73.
The line opened at the gauge but headed toward my line. The Total opened just below the gauge and moved away from my line. I can see pressure along with the public that would explain the upward move.
Metrics go with the forecast and say pick up Seton Hall but it’s early and I’m not pressing the forecast. Note that long term I have Seton Hall +1 (-105) and was trying for +1.5, but couldn’t get any anywhere. It moved to 1.5 then dropped quickly. (I also have the Under).
Let’s get these first games underway before looking to trade. I have a few scenarios in mind and want to see the ends of these early games.
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The sharp forecast has Oregon beating Iona 74-71. The public gauge say Oregon wins 83-70.
The line opened above the gauge and moved away from the numbers. There is public support for Oregon including the pressure to bounce back from the Pac 12 championship. Otherwise, the line movement should be interesting in the last hour. Perhaps it goes back toward the forecast.
The Total opened close to the gauge and moved upward, away from the forecast. There is considerable pressure on the OVER from the public but in my opinion this line has moved far too much. Value on the Under has gone up significantly but the line remains high.
It’s too early to jump on such a value play for trading as I could see these teams lighting it up just to punish the less patient.
This game should be an Under, but…
Ok State grew a lead, something tells me they blow it.
lol... 27-20 Ok State turned into 30-29 Michigan leading.
I have to step away.
Fuk, Michigan took the lead right at halftime, spoiling the halftime bet on them. I waited around for it. I don't think Ok St. gets this one.
Halftime line puts the score right at the game line. Fuk you Michigan, I need some plays.
Jax St/Louisville
The sharp forecast has Jackonsville St. Beating Louisville 73-68. The public gauge say Louisville wins 74-59.
This line at -21, well above both numbers and I’m not surprised it has come down. The Total opened at the gauge, traded higher but has come back the open.
There isn’t much time here. I’ve pressed the forecast with Jacksonville St +18 (-105) and +1522 over Louisville.
An upset here would serve to settle many different scenarios and angles and metrics say go for it. Further, the numbers and odds are in line here for the play.
Good Luck
USC/SMU
The sharp forecast says SMU beats USC 75-70. The public gauge says SMU wins 75-67.
The line opened at -6.5 and moved up to -7. There is public pressure on SMU, even though USC is a very solid squad. I have some metrics indicating pressure on SMU by the same type of line moving bettors that were betting into Ok St (not moving the line there). They were paid and could give it back with an SMU bet. Further, some metrics show an upset, and those players have also been paid recently.
I would pass here. The line is tight, USC can ball, and we can learn by this result. Things move fast, and with writing every game hopefully we can get back to this money flow.
The Total opened too low even treaded lower before coming back up towards the opener. There should be quite a bit of pressure on this Over and I don’t think the books are adjusting to show for it. They are readily taking action of all kinds on the Over.
I’m not trading an Under here yet, but it is something to note.
Texas Southern/NC
The sharp forecast shows Texas Southern beating NC 74-67. The public gauge has NC winning 89-65.
Both the spread and Total are of course closer to the public gauge and have both moved away from my line.
Notice such a huge spread between the numbers above. While that forecast shows an upset, it’s actually really just showing as value against a 25 or 26 point spread. Outside of that, this isn’t a very sexy play and with such a high line I can see a lot of underdog bets just getting thrown in here.
On the other hand, this is a classic public likes the favorite and Over situation. I’m passing for a trade.
This video has 57 million views...
RI/Creighton
The sharp forecast shows RI beating Creighton 76-61. The public gauge shows Creighton winning 73-70.
The line opened Creighton -1.5, with the public but it has crossed over, towards my line. The Total opened between the numbers and if anything has moved away from the forecast on public pressure.
Everyone took RI here and the books aren’t afraid to show it. I’m already looking to counter that pressure and have picked up Creighton +2 (-105) over Rhode Island.
I picked this play up a little early because I think the RI movement done. The game between Seton Hall and Arkansas will influence this game as far as bets placed and with Seton Hall leading by 4 in the 2nd, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that game tighten up.
Good Luck.
Edit: The Seton Hall/Arkansas game is already tied at 68-68.
Had Ok State been leading I would have taken Michigan 2nd half. Instead, Mich took a 1 point half time lead and failed to cover the 2nd half.
While Ok St. covers the game spread and halftime, they still didn’t pay the moneyline bets on such a low line.
I’m glad I passed.
There is evidence that USC is a parlay killer here. If it's close, I will be looking at the halftime line. I wouldn't be surprised if this game is at the spread right at the end.
Jax St shoot 59% for first half and Louisville missed 4 wide open layups (according to Pitino interview).
Let's see if Jax St. has anything left.
UC Davis/Kansas
The sharp forecast has Kansas beating UC Davis 72-64. The public gauge shows Kansas winning 84-63.
The line opened with Kansas favored by more than the gauge and has moved away from my line by a half point. The total ticked toward the gauge and came back toward the forecast, again by only a half point. The lines not moving much as it’s Kansas vs. UC Davis so they opened the line high to mitigate that it’s Kansas vs. Davis.
At this point I would be wary about taking the favorite here. I don’t think it’s an upset, but the market is getting thirsty for a surprise and an upset. It’s a wonder the forecasts were running so high on upsets, there was going to be a drought.
At this point we have to figure out where money is being pulled from what is a general steer towards upsets. Until now, I’ve been trying to do that with dog spreads, and thrown the longshot upset in there. Now it’s time to do it with moneylines.
Naturally, Kent St. beating UCLA and Troy beating Duke have metrics along these lines, but there is a lot of time.
Perhaps there will be no upsets, it doesn’t have to happen. But there always has to be a surprise.
Wichita St/Dayton
The sharp forecast says Wichita St. beats Dayton 80-64. The public gauge has Wichita winning 77-69.
The line opened a little low at -6.5 and is there now. The total opened high at 148 and conveniently fell to 143.5 and stopped. Another honed line.
With the forecast in such alignment could Dayton beat Wichita? Could that be the moneyline upset? The public loves Wichita, but the market is taking more on the upset when buying Dayton. The books foresaw this situation and opened the line where it would be sharp for them. They don’t have to react to the pressures because they set the line to face them. They planned for this.
So is Dayton our darling? After all, they are the higher seeded team in a 7 vs. 10 game yet are a 6.5 point underdog. We see this situation every year, at least with closer seeds. If anything, that fact alone may put money on the underdog…but from the book’s perspective that that kind of money is easy to get back.
There’s still time.
Speaking of 6.5 (moved to 7.5) point line with the gauge and forecast on it's moneyline side giving an upset, USC just beat SMU.
It may not be a big settlement of money, but it's an upset nonetheless.
Troy/Duke
The sharp forecast says Troy beats Duke 76-70. The public gauge says Duke wins 83-69.
The line opened -18.5 and moved to -19.5 away from both numbers. The Total opened at the gauge and moved higher, away from the forecast. I can see pressure on the Over that joins with public money to move that line away.
According to some metrics, Duke is getting market moving money and the public still likes them. Further, metrics steer money away from Troy, towards Duke. The line climbed early in anticipation of this and is once again constrained by the thirst for an upset.
Duke has been known to bow out and get beat, it could happen here.
I am getting these forecasts out early and have to step away again. I will miss the tip of this next batch of 4 games. I may not be able to trade them.
K State/Cinci
The sharp forecast has Cinci beating K State 71-61. The public gauge says Cinci wins 66-65.
The line opened closer to the gauge and moved toward the forecast. The Total opened below 130 and has ticked upward slightly toward the forecast.
I like Kansas State as the upset here. I see money being pulled off of them but await a little more information. Again we see more upset moneyline on Kansas St while we get spread bets on Cinci. Again, the line opened low because of this condition.
The originators and subsequent small book moves were in preparation for a market thirsty for an upset.
With such conditions patience is all there is left. Could Kent St. beat UCLA? One thing is for sure; I’m not the only thinking that as I have forecasted a 2 point win for UCLA.
I have picked up Dayton +6.5 (-105) over Wichita St. in accordance with the flow of money I see for heading into the night game in Indianapolis. This is not patience, as I could wait to bet the later game, but I don’t want this one to pass by.
I would take the upset, but let’s not get greedy.
Good Luck
In a rush, I picked up Kansas State +3 (-105) and +144 over Cincinnati.
Good Luck
Mich St./Miami
The sharp forecast says Michigan St. beats Miami 68-60. The public gauge says Miami wins 61-60.
The line has opened at the gauge and ticked slightly upward. The total opened between the numbers and has gone towards the forecast on heavy public supports. Metrics show some market moving money heading towards the over. The money is nothing to trifle with and with the Over forecasted, I am neither pressing nor countering this total.
Despite the forecast and other pressures I see on Michigan State, this line has not dropped. The early move up to Miami -2.5 has allowed some room to drop but the books may not be showing all the pressure on Michigan State. I think they are keeping Miami favored to collect upset money on Michigan State, exploiting the markets thirst for upsets.
This one could go to Miami.
N. Kentucky/Kentucky
The forecast has Kentucky winning 75-70. The public gauge shows Kentucky winning 87-68.
We have another big line that appears at the public gauge but also appears inefficient. I am watching the current action closely and Kentucky losing this game has to be considered. We have time and if certain metrics unfold like I think they will then we will have a Northern Kentucky bet.
Signals are adding up and when the reach a certain rating, again things go bad. So far this tournament when ratings in some metrics have “broken through” the betting zone and been too good to bet, the bet has succeeded. (For example: Ok St. above…lol).
I’m still watching the indicators and we have time.
I get this feeling that Troy is going to surprise Duke with a comeback and all these metrics will collapse, paying the forecast but ruining best laid plans for the evening.
It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.
Marquette/SC
The sharp forecast says Marquette beats South Carolina 74-69. The public gauge says Marquette wins 76-74.
This line opened SC -1 and has moved toward the forecast to a pick. The Total opened between the lines but has moved to the forecast.
In my opinion, there are too many metrics leading to money being steered towards Marquette and the opening line tells me the market wanted it that way. While stopping at a pick em would stop the flow of any money seeking the underdog, I still would not pick up Marquette here. In this instance, if the book is focused on stopping the Marquette action and not about getting SC action, I just may want some of that SC action.
Again, let’s see what happens between now and then as the metrics finalize and we get some solid probabilities.
One forecast left to post...
Kent St./UCLA
The sharp forecast shows UCLA beating Kent St. 76-74. The public gauge says UCLA wins 88-75.
This line has opened high and under heavy public support for UCLA, moved away from the forecasts. The Total has opened between the numbers and moved away from the forecast to land on the gauge.
The public likes their favorites and overs and this line is shade to reflect their unsophistication.
Kansas State, who trails by 9 points late in the first, will come back and cover. When they do, metrics will fall into place and I will be buying Kent State, unless other factors fall out of alignment (which always seems to happen when trying to think too far ahead).
All the forecasts are out there, you can compare them to your own work. I have a few thoughts out on these last games but for the most part all we can do now is watch and wait.
It’s amazing from year to year perspective just what it took to get the Michigan St. bounce out of the tourney last year. From what happened the year before to what could be a very stretched out market this year. I've tracked these markets certain ways for 20 years. I remember UCLA getting bounced by Tulsa in the first round. The year before and after show a real give and take for the price to pay, and UCLA wasn't ranked very high.
Charley Hoffman leading the tournament. I figured the tease would be a 1st round lead. This tease is stretching out.
Let's see if he can get it...
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KVB gave Da Manster! 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
