Pac 12
The sharp forecast has Oregon beating Arizona 75-72. The public gauge says Arizona wins 70-69.
The last game of the night gives us a difficult test. This time the line has opened near the forecast at Oregon -2.5 and has moved toward the gauge to -2. More importantly, I think this represents the first time there has been a moneyline split between these numbers and the forecast is not calling for the upset.
Only two favorites have covered in the Pac 12 tournament so far. Those teams were Oregon and Arizona.
But let’s get back to the line.
It’s the final game of the night and of the Pac 12 tourney. The forecasts have been getting paid on upset moneylines on a very high rate. I mentioned after the first set of forecast results that the 33% success calling upsets by the forecast is in line and there really is little variance. Really, all year long, in many sports, very little variance of short or long term. I use moving averages and snapshots in different intervals to attest to it.
They are hitting at over 50% for these conferences and just below for the rest of the league in general.
Has the market, not by way not of the bettors, but the originators, caught up? Would this line have been Zona -1 earlier in the tournament?
If the bettors caught up, we would see Zona -1 shift across the line to Oregon. I believe the answer could be Oregon here as the market wasn’t going to pay out another sharp upset against the opener.
The money has been fairly split here but if, when, and as the line falls the public will read it as sharp and pick up the steam.
I may be looking to counter that steam with Oregon.