[stevenash]

[Da Manster!]

that was the last segment of the movie called "they are creeping up on you" about millions of vengeful cockroaches that kill an egotistical, ruthless, business man...E.G. Marshall did a great job of playing Mr. Pratt!...all of these short story segments kick ass and are awesome..but you have to watch the whole movie from the beginning to truly appreciate them!...

here are the death scenes from "The Crate"....

[KVB]

I think a bunch of us were watching Creepshow at a very young age...probably too young.

One thing's for sure, they were so well done it left an impression on a whole generation of 6-12 year old kids. Whatever you do, don't stick your hand in the crate!!!!!

It prepared us for Tales from the Crypt...lol.

Brings back memories of those late horror shows.

Who can forget Elvira, Mistress of the Dark.

Somehow I know she has a special place in Manster's heart...

[Da Manster!]

^^^...

[KVB]

Everyone do the wave...

[Da Manster!]

that's pretty neat!...and the lady on the pole would no doubt be welcomed at Donkland!...

[PerfectGrape]

not a creepshow....




but kate would probably be "creeped out" by what the masses are doing to themselves while watching it.....

back in 2 minutes

[PerfectGrape]

missed the good line on the dallas over
boston over got cheaper to 214, still seems pretty sharp

[PerfectGrape]

[PerfectGrape]

thinking about a pound play on okc

KVB I texted you, check in

[PerfectGrape]

just got off the phone with KVB, he said we should pound okc

[Fidel_CashFlow]

you lil fags momma's are so fat, when Dracula sucked her blood h got diabetes

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

always funny

[Fidel_CashFlow]

lil baby fags

[KVB]

just got off the phone with KVB, he said we should pound okc

I had that game a tie 104-104.

Another night I was pulled away, didn't get any basketball forecasts in the thread.

Disappointing to say the least.

[KVB]

What's the song in the background? We need that up in here.

"This weed's incredible. I'm on the edibles." at :28.

[KVB]

An obese inmate in Texas has been charged after officials learned he had a gun hidden in his rolls of fat.George Vera, 25, was charged with possession of a firearm in a correctional facility after he told a guard at the Harris County Jail about the unloaded 9mm pistol.
The Houston Chronicle reported Thursday that Vera was originally arrested on charges of selling illegal copies of compact discs.
The 500-pound man was searched during his arrest and again at a city jail and the county jail, but officers never found the weapon.
Vera admitted having the gun during a shower break at the county jail.

[KVB]

A quick review of the NFL Championship weekend, let’s see what happened:

...It’s this “easy call” of one favorite and one underdog that I believe the market intends to exploit...

...So what if Atlanta takes the lead outright, and controls the game to the end? Given the metrics I see regarding the underdog, it would imply the market is selling Pittsburgh. I might bite on the spread, but would be less enthusiastic about the moneyline for sure...

...If this is indeed a new beginning, then exploiting the expected one underdog and one favorite result behavior I talked about before is not a good approach...

Well, in the end the market exploited the favorite underdog tendency, with Atlanta commanding the game from the outset. Money shifted to Pittsburgh, and that was taken down. I cited both favorites covering as the least likely of scenarios, yet it came true.

But there were signs…

...Let me say this much, you know I can cross sports with money flow, if Swafford wins it makes really want to avoid Pittsburgh...

...I just don't like what I see in this marketplace. So much football left, Swafford winning takes down significant money (take) that would flow to the New England patriots, this tends to imply the Patriots (give)...

Grapes once asked how golf could be a gauge. This is how. I should have listened to my own gauges. In planning to use the same gauge for Super Bowl weekend, I have to be careful. That gauge was exposed already…the cat may be out of the bag.

Notice the pressure on the Steelers right now as the line pulls off of 6 to 5.5.

With the favorite winning the first game, money is shifting to the underdog.

Market moving money based on sharp analysts know the tendency of the markets...

We saw the market moving money play, as anticipated in my posts.

Money has shifted and if New England crushes them, there will be market repercussions...

From a broader perspective, what happened in the NBA on the following day? What has happened to the top 10 teams in the college hoops during the following week? Is it a bit of give and take?

Will there be repercussions in the NFL?

[KVB]

One other thing I forgot to mention is that there are repercussions yet to be felt and opportunities to seek. There will be NCAA Hoops Conference Tournaments coming up but even more high profile will be the NCAA Tournament. If we don't beforehand, when we get to the Final Four, we will revisit this notion of ATS results and one favorite vs. one underdog covering with only two big games to play. Even small metrics have a give and take, especially on a large stage.

Wait, did he just somehow link the NFL Conference Championships to the NCAA Final Four?

Yes, yes he did.

[KVB]

I wrote this about the New England vs Pittsburgh game…

...If we see the favorite come this game, we will have to treat the Superbowl as the settlement. I doubt it will be as kind to the forecast behavior as the last settlement.

I feel the best opportunity could be behind us...

The sharp forecast predicts a 31-31 tie with New England getting a decent edge in the raw score. This triggers a bet on +3.5 for either team. As far as the best being behind us, there is currently no spread or moneyline prediction with this forecast.

The 62 point prediction is higher than the market but the high market line means a bet is not triggered. This same situation has occurred in the last two NFC playoff games; both of which went OVER the posted TOTAL. Remember, for triggered plays during the playoffs, the sharp forecast is 0-5 against the TOTALS.

The stacking forecast has Atlanta winning 28-21. This result was very close to having Atlanta scoring 28 or 31 points with equal probability. In the objective end, and consistent with my posting, we must go with 28 points for Atlanta. This is the same forecast that was 9-1 ATS and 8-1 against the moneyline for the playoffs.

The non-predictive public gauge has New England winning 31-28. The raw score actually has New England winning by only 2 points. I’ve noticed multiple posters at SBR this week saying they predict a 1 or two point New England win. One could question the effectiveness of their methods long term, or one could question their effectiveness at adjusting raw predictions (perhaps more towards the tie), which may be decent long term.

I just want to point out a couple of things then stop here. First, except for the raw score of the sharp forecast (which I didn’t post) there is nothing here that gives New England better than a 3 point win. The pubic gauge is the closest and the stacking forecast favors Atlanta.

Also, notice the split on the TOTALS. Sharp forecast is high, stacking forecast is low, and the public gauge is right on the line. While the sharp forecast has looked good with lines at these levels (even though no bet was triggered), the stacking forecast has lost seven straight against the totals. In six of those games it predicted an UNDER. The famous Pittsburgh vs. KC settlement game had the stacking forecast wrongly predicting the OVER.

So these are the forecasts. Initially, I like the UNDER but will post more on it later, and it seems like the books have a bit of a split with a lot of tickets on the Patriots, but a danger at -3.5, as clearly sharper, market moving forecasters will pounce on Atlanta. Now FlyME readers get a little more insight into why the line is where it is, and why it may not move at all.

I’ve been trying to get underdogs with bold plays all playoffs and now it seems like we are being walked right into it.

I could write some lengthy posts on juggernaut franchises (a bit of a Tiger Woods effect), the spoiling OVER score, and how these seem to come into play here. I’m not sure I’ll need to though.

For reference, here’s a link to the results of the forecasts…

[KVB]

[KVB]

...Grapes once asked how golf could be a gauge. This is how. I should have listened to my own gauges. In planning to use the same gauge for Super Bowl weekend, I have to be careful. That gauge was exposed already…the cat may be out of the bag...

Making it even more difficult, we already had a player shoot 7 under par last Sunday to win the tournament. As I mentioned, that golfer was on my radar.

All this information makes it even tougher to predict the golf tournament for Super Bowl weekend before the first round begins. The principal is simple. If we think New England covers, then look for a longer shot in golf. If we think Atlanta covers, then look for a favorite in golf. But just what constitutes the favorite can be tough to decipher.

Take for example Zach Johnson. He pays about 50-1. He’s not the longest shot, but he’s getting out there. If he’s in the hunt on Sunday, he could easily become the favorite. The field has to be judged day by day, the most important day being Sunday of course. For the most part it should be obvious, but if not I have metrics to lead us.

Look at Hudson Swafford, he was about 50-1 and considered a long shot. Meanwhile the Conference Championship brings both favorites handily.

Anyway, we don’t just have to figure the Super Bowl, we can work on indications from golf. Because of this fact, expect some ambiguity in the golf result right before the Superbowl. If it’s obvious (like Atlanta taking and holding the lead against GB), then we have to be skeptical that this relationship is being exploited.

Because of the Conference Championship weekend and then last week’s deceptive comeback with Rahm, know that I am already skeptical.

For golf I have indication that we will see a favorite, sending the market analyst to the underdog in the Super Bowl. This is tough, because, like I already said, it feels like we are being walked right into the underdog.

Because of the odds, and for the sake of the thread, I am going to try to anticipate the landscape on Sunday. I have made a few plays based trying to cover a favorite, and then one of more of the dog. For the most part, I would be selecting these golfers for various reasons even if this weren’t Super Bowl Sunday…

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Phil Mickelson +2750

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Patrick Reed +3200

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Brendan Steele +3300

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Phoenix Open - Odds to win PGA Phoenix Open 2017 - Daniel Berger +6600

Notice Reed and Steele have been recent future bets and Mickelson just paid me in his tournament match.

I have also picked up Mickelson +115 over Rahm for the tournament as there was once again great value...

Short Description

Football - 102 Atlanta Falcons +134 for Game

Golf - 7008 P. Mickelson +115 for Game

Now Rahm is one of the favorites to win this tournament and if he burns us he burns us.

One other golfer not bought here is the outright favorite of Jordan Spieth at +800. If he becomes the evident winner, we will most certainly have to lay for him. But if he is the winner, my point about this weekend will be well illustrated and worth the cost.

[KVB]

Remember in 2007 when the Giants beat the Patriots as 12 point underdogs in what was known as one of the biggest upsets in sports history at the time?

You probably do remember, but do you remember what happened in the other sports that day? The box scores will tell you that Tiger Woods won the PGA that day and that North Carolina beat Florida State by 10, or maybe it was 11 points.

What the box scores won't readily show you is that Tiger Woods came back from some 6 strokes behind to win.

And that North Carolina, top ranked at the time, was trailing by 10 points late, came back to tie the game late, and then went on to cover the 9 point spread.

Among other reasons, this is why models and stats can fall flat. They can be static, and don't remember the context of their own prediction history, treating it merely as noise. Further, it adds yet another layer of meaning to my old saying...keep track of your bets and why you made them.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

[KVB]

I have one last thing about golf that is really for future reference. It will be very difficult for me to present the entire tournament landscape even if I gave it its own thread, so I will have to show some part and hope it’s the right bits to tell the story.

I am going to list 8 pairs of golfers. Of these pairs I would expect one to succeed and the other in the pair to fail. Now success and failure are a bit nebulous, but if one is in the top 10, and one misses the cut, you get the picture.

What we are really looking for is potential first round winners and tournament winners, as well as overall noticeable behavior. Not all, but some of these pairs will inevitably act as gauges, others will not even be noticed.

One more thing, and it’s a prediction, say one golfer in the pair is near or at the top early. If so, then expect the other golfer to actually finish ahead of that first golfer. In general, if there is separation between the two early, expect positions to switch by the end of the tournament.

The pairs for this week, determined by a number of metrics and tests are:

Woodland and Holmes; Grillo and Perez; Hadwin and Berger; Horschel and Lowry; Byeong Hun An and Castro; Baddeley and Hahn; and two obscure ones with Beljan and Every; and JJ Henry and Ken Duke.

Like I said, some of these will fall by the wayside, others may make an impact. I have an idea of whom, but it’s best just to list them all. Also, it’s just a snapshot as there are close to 130 golfers in this tournament.

[DwightShrute]

[KVB]

Fukkin spit out my coffee Dwight.

[PerfectGrape]

KVB do you use betting lines/data as input to all of your models? do any of your models rely strictly on stats/game results?

[PerfectGrape]

most of my analysis is driven by nonsense

just got off the phone with KVB, he said we should pound okc

[Da Manster!]

Dirty Harry Callahan....My favorite Clint Eastwood character of all-time!...the famous elevator scene from "Sudden Impact"

[KVB]

The forecasts are basically based on stats. All of those stats are created on the court or field. They are basically given to us and it’s how we use them that counts.

I create the forecast before lines come out; then compare that forecast to the current market. The forecasts do not look at the opening lines or any of the lines before they are created, they don’t need that information.

That said many of the market analyzing metrics will use lines and market data; historical and regressed. Sometimes, like I mentioned with the National Championship game, I can use these metrics to adjust the forecast…get a fudged answer that helps show us where money is going.

When I do add that layer, I think I usually mention it. But the forecasts I try to keep pure, they tell us who is where because of what they represent. The market metrics, as I seem to call them, help indicate money flow and market intentions (not trying to be unclear, but that seems to be the best way to phrase it).

At this point it’s not just about “making” the model bettors, the best of whom use calculus, it’s about “making” the more advanced market analysts, the guys who understand what we are actually watching.

Come NCAA Tournament time, these metrics really help in comparing the market and will likely be a part of every forecast. They were screaming out loud for the DOG, at least against the spread, when Michigan St. outright lost in last year’s tourney.

Everything gets weighted not just on historical averages, but recent performance for stats and the recent and current “market environment” for those metrics. Then we have to consider (less so in the aggressive trading account) the odds and prices, to see if we are out of bounds for a long term profit.

Statistical models fall short when they don’t take into account the current, dynamic sport environment. Something I was hitting on at the top of this page.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

[stevenash]

Dallas Mavs
Money Line +225 reduced juice 5Dimes

Want some? Go get some.

[PerfectGrape]

missing dwill, not a problem?

[PerfectGrape]

massive play on pats coming up