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Actual data on line movement
You hear to bet underdogs and unders early, but where can I find actual data on this? I want to know, for the last 5 years or so, the percentage that certain spreads and totals moved in each direction, particularly in basketball.
For example, for teams favored by 5-9 points when the line is released, what percentage of the time did the line move higher and what percentage did it move lower?
Does anyone know where I can find this type of data?
The public does tend to bet favorites and OVERs, they may like an underdog, but they don't bet it that way.Originally Posted by JTrain
In general, but not always, if you like a dog play, it's actually better to wait. The same with the UNDER.
Of course, this all depends on why you like the underdog to start with.
As far as what you are looking for, you may have to compile that data yourself. It's good to see other bettors seeing the value of the opener, and not just the closer.
Good Luck.
You could probably sign up for a trial at Sports Insights and get this data with pretty minimal effort
Here's some pretty good data.
http://www.statsprofessor.org/p/stats.html
stuff means nothing
it is all betting weak numbers
Where do you hear that?
we all lose because we handicap
It is a math game like all forms of gambling but that is not fun
This is the closest thing to an answer. I may try it although looking at their preview I didn't see any obvious way of finding this.
I'm surprised no one here knows the answer. Lots of longtime bettors in here.
Say I want to take the T'wolves tomorrow because a system I'm playing has them as a play. They are currently -5 at 11pm CST. I want to know, in the last 5 years or 7 years or 10 years, what percentage of games that were -5 (or close to that, like -4 through -7 range) moved higher from open to close, and what percentage moved lower. Was it 45-55, 53-47, 50-50, etc.? Then I have actually statistical data on whether I should place it now at -5 or wait until tomorrow closer to tip.
There are plenty of sites that keep data for opening and closing lines, so surely someone goes the extra step and does analysis of the line movement.
Last edited by JTrain; 01-08-17 at 11:28 PM.
I'm sure someone here has it although PT is probably not where you will find it. The BetLabs tool that Sports Insights has is pretty plug and play so you can set up some parameters and press a button and you get the answer. I haven't used it since last year so I don't know the current set up, but they had opening and closing lines as filters. I believe they were Pinny lines.
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Hopefully it will be moved to a more appropriate forum then.
I have contacted SI so I'll see what they say.
I was trying to offer you an answer...
I wasn't being cavalier with my answer. I meant it when I said you may have to compile that data yourself, no matter where you get the raw data.
It will be interesting to hear what sports insights has to say, however.
Various reasons why a line moves JTrain. You'll be able to slightly narrow it down. You'll never find the exact reason though.
It's trial and error. 24/7.
More than likely it's gonna kinda break even over time. I would doubt you're gonna see some kind of decided percentage like 55% or 60% of the time a line that opens at X number will move this way as opposed that way. You have to know a little something about the match at hand and use some instincts to determine when you should grab it. I'm afraid that's probably the hard truth.
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Thanks but I don't have a clue how to compile that amount of data without just manually entering it. We're talking 10000+ games just in the last 5 seasons of NBA and CBB so it would take a very long time to enter manually.I was trying to offer you an answer...
I wasn't being cavalier with my answer. I meant it when I said you may have to compile that data yourself, no matter where you get the raw data.
It will be interesting to hear what sports insights has to say, however.
You are probably right for all games combined, but I'm curious if there are certain trends with certain line ranges, like home teams favored by 15 to 20 points in CBB.
This was going to be my next post...lol.
everything is factored into lines
most markets priced perfectly
Sure it does. Especially bigger games like playoffs.
It happens every year.
Every line move won this week...even more so that lot of the public loved the underdogs.
If you go against a hard move off key numbers you'll get killed long term.
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Wow, what percentage of lines in that range moved higher and what percentage move lower?
Just so you could try to "figure out" whether you should wait to place your bet or not.
I don't think you could ever find that out, much less try to "practice" it and get your extra half-point (or more)
that you want.
I'd just say go "line shopping" all around Vegas or the Sportsbooks and see who has the line a half a point higher
and then just bet the game right then at that place. You wouldn't go nutz that way!
betlabssports.com -- you can see what pct. of games that fit your filter moved one way open to close. It's not the best tool for that particular task, but it's sufficient.
There are instructions how to scrape and compile info into a database in the Handicapper Think Tank.
It's such a big job to keep it accurate that people dont give databases away usually. And those you can get for free are generally full of errors.
If you cap this way you wont trust anyone else's data once you get into it if you are serious anyway.
No one has that answer because its a dumb question
Over time the line moves are almost exactly split or close enough any slight lean to the over and fav wouldnt matter because of the juice. You have to remember that the sportsbook don't want one-sided action and all their early bets would be losers if they were weak. But, you definitely see early markets trend one way in streaks. Early in the NBA season the overs were killing it so no matter what the line they opened with... it seemed players were always betting it up. The regulars were betting overs as they always do and sharps were finding teams that were going to be better at the 3 than the year before. Eventually the lines get too high and the market gets sharper and lines started coming back the other way. But yea a lot of SBR odds archives looked like Nov 8 , with all openers on the bottom.
I always like Bill Dozer, I guess he goes way back with the founder badge.
Sometime bettors have gambled for a long time and think simply that, having seen so much, they must know so much. Unfortunately, the vast majority of bettors never learned along the way. They may have learned a few lessons, but they never take time to learn from their mistakes.
For one simple example, they chalk something up to a bad ref call and move on, not realizing the mistakes they made along the way. I think you know what I mean.
Based on posts I've read, Bill Dozer, on the other hand, seems to have been a student of the game along the way.
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This can be so true for so many types of information, from common to rare and esoteric.
you need a tissue or is your nose usually tanned???I always like Bill Dozer, I guess he goes way back with the founder badge.
Sometime bettors have gambled for a long time and think simply that, having seen so much, they must know so much. Unfortunately, the vast majority of bettors never learned along the way. They may have learned a few lessons, but they never take time to learn from their mistakes.
For one simple example, they chalk something up to a bad ref call and move on, not realizing the mistakes they made along the way. I think you know what I mean.
Based on posts I've read, Bill Dozer, on the other hand, seems to have been a student of the game along the way.
Nope
If you are dealing with sample sizes in the thousands of games, non-systematic errors in, say, 30 games, will have a trivial impact. So, no, 100% vs. 95% data integrity is not going to to make or break you in handicapping.This can be so true for so many types of information, from common to rare and esoteric.
Is this jjgold a robot? Every post is like a haiku from the squarest bettor alive.
No. If you are a truly serious individual handicapper, you don't waste time collecting and maintaining a database. (The odds of you making an error are higher than someone you are paying for the data). You outsource it, and randomly spot check it for accuracy.
Ffs, kvb, bill and evo have posted, think tank this threat
i would think killersports has it in its query language but no idea how to do it. i googled and i see reference to "open line" and "open total" in KS but didn't seem to work when i put them in.
teamrankings.com i think has all the line movements in an easy-to-use but not that powerful data format... maybe get you part of the way to your answers.
Bump. Good post, Opti. I believe old poster Justin quoted "going rates" for sports databases as pretty hi. I don't want to mis-quote him, but it was more than just $100 or so for a season of data. Was not a small amount, if memory serves.
Would love to hear current thoughts on "BTCL Theory". If u see late line move against your original play:
A) Do u now feel shaky, b/c the market moved in other direction?
B) Do u re-pop it, b/c the Line Value is now better?
Guy is a clown. Sharp as a bowling-ball.
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