[KVB]

Hughes up three strokes over Vegas as well.

Well, I always say I never like to lead early.

Did you say gangsta rap Grapes?

They called him the Godfather of Gangsta Rap...

[KVB]

Sometimes, win or lose, we make mistakes. It's best to identify those mistakes and learn from them when they occur.

Humans learn best by trial and error, by making mistakes, it is how we are wired. Sitting in a classroom listening to a lecture is not the optimal way to learn.

Anyway, with today's golf bet, which is trailing with a lot of golf left, I made a bit of a mistake. There was a mistake in a rating I had, easy lesson there. More importantly, I failed to take into account an inherent risk with my play.

It can be dangerous and less predictive from a market standpoint when you are picking pairs of golfers in the final two rounds of the tournament that come from at or very near the bottom of the pack. Those last place guys are generally less predictable than the top guys in those rounds.

This isn't just a skill thing, sometimes good golfers end up down there. Of course, with today's bet, those guys aren't the greatest, but they are in this tourney.

Maybe it's a motivation issue, maybe it's just longer market cycles leading less performance at those edges. Regardless, it's something I failed to take into account and probably would have kept that play from being bold.

I still like the thought process regarding Hughes, but it won't take much data to change that opinion.

Back to the salt mines.

[KVB]

Miami TD helps with my last trade...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Game Total: Under 52.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

- Game Total: Under 51.5 -127.273 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

- Point Spread: MIA Dolphins +19.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 13:00EST: MIA Dolphins @ PIT Steelers

This prop and future page looks good, not so much for the regular pending bets.

[KVB]

Quick numbers for the final game to round out this weekend of NFL...

Sharp forecast has another tie, 23-23 with a slight edge in the raw numbers going to Green Bay. That tie triggers bet on the Giants down to +3.5; and the TOTAL is in line with the market.

Stacking percentages forecast predicts a Green Bay win 28-14, more on that later.

The non-predictive public gauge has Green Bay winning 23-20.

Often with the sharp forecast I use the performance against the moneyline as a sort of gauge. Unfortunately, of the 4 playoff games so far, my sharp forecast only has 1 prediction against the moneyline...Houston…and it succeeded.

So let's look at the stacking forecasts.

In OAK vs. Hou the prediction was 27-14, the score was 27-14. The prediction succeeded against the spread, moneyline and totals.

For the Detroit vs. Seattle game, the prediction was 28-16, the score was 26-6. The forecast succeeded against the spread, moneyline, and the closing total of 45.5 (but not the opening total of 43).

For the Miami vs. Pittsburgh game the prediction was 31-14. The final score was 30-12. The forecast succeeded against the spread, moneyline, and Total.

Obviously, these predictions have been very precise so far this weekend. Now we come to the final prediction of Green Bay winning 28-14. I mentioned after the Houston/Oakland game that one should not get too overconfident when the predictions are accurate.

This is especially true now. I believe that Green Bay covering this spread is in jeopardy but it is much more difficult to translate that to the moneyline.

In a similar fashion to some of those mid-season night games, sometimes it’s not about who is going to win, but about who isn’t.

I think the Packers to cover the spread, as indicated in the stacking forecast, is a bad bet. Buying the underdog is also in line with the sharper forecast and is the play to make.

Accordingly, I have picked up the New York Giants +4.5 (-105) over the Green Bay Packers.

Let’s get a bold play into the winners circle for a change.

Good Luck.

Short Description

Golf - 7403 J. Vegas -130 for Game

Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -105 for Game

Football - 107 New York Giants +188 for Game

I added the moneyline in the trading account, but it carries a higher risk.

[KVB]

I opened a 4 pick parlay as well...

To Win	Short Description
	Golf - 7403 J. Vegas -130 for Game
	Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -105 for Game
	Football - 107 New York Giants +188 for Game
Open	Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -115 buying ½ for Game

[KVB]

For the Pittsburgh vs. Miami game my sharp forecast once again shows a tie, this time 31-31 with Pittsburgh having a slight edge in the raw score. This tie triggers a bet on Miami down to +3.5. A bet is also triggered on the OVER up to 47.5.

The stacking forecast has Pittsburgh winning 31-14. The public gauge has Pittsburgh winning 27-20.

For the TOTAL, the opening line was 47.5. I can see pressure on the OVER from some groups despite the movement through 47, which is decent and onto 45.5, which is not as significant. Because of the specific opener, it could be the case here that the TOTAL has moved down to trigger bets on the OVER from numbers predicting that higher result.

It will be interesting to see if that line bounces off of 45.5 or somehow heads to 45. It is my position that we do not see 45, but more likely some insignificant movement to 46 or 46.5.

In either case, the OVER bet appears to be in jeopardy and with the current movement I am considering the UNDER play. Should that line make it back to 47 by game time I would also consider countering that pressure with an UNDER play. It could be, and would be interpreted as, an attempt to add some steam to OVER bets.

In fact, the game time steam may be the reason or one reason the line sits at 45.5 right now…allowing that upward pressure (and appearance of pressure) to come in and only have the line get back to the opener...

This analysis and prediction of market behavior has been my best post all weekend.

[KVB]

Took the +5.5 at kickoff...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Point Spread: NY Giants +5.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

[KVB]

After some line shifts I hit the +4.5 again, because I could...

To Win	Short Description
	Golf - 7403 J. Vegas -130 for Game
	Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -105 for Game
	Football - 107 New York Giants +188 for Game
Open	Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -115 buying ½ for Game
	Football - 107 New York Giants +4½ -104 for Game

Giants scored first.

[KVB]

[KVB]

I posted this in another thread but, after looking closely, I've decided it should be posted again...

[KVB]

[KVB]

The live line made it back to +4.5 so I fired again...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Point Spread: NY Giants +5.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

- Point Spread: NY Giants +4.5 -122.222 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

This way I thicken my live holdings a bit...

[KVB]

One more time with NYG +7.5...

Short Description

Golf Futures - 2017 Golf Events - PGA - Tournament of Champions - Odds to win 2017 PGA Tournament of Champions - Justin Thomas +110

- Point Spread: NY Giants +5.5 -117.172 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

- Point Spread: NY Giants +4.5 -122.222 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

- Point Spread: NY Giants +7.5 -107.071 - Sun Jan 08 2017 16:27EST: NY Giants @ GB Packers

[KVB]

...On a more macro level...All this attention to macro indicators could point us right into the NCAA Championship, with a Clemson upset…that would make some sense...

Hmmm....Something to think about.

[KVB]

Not a good weekend for posted plays from my end. I feel bad about that but you know money will flow to and fro, there’s give and take, and assessing the aftermath can be very important. Maybe we can learn something.

The NFL playoffs bring a lot of money to the marketplace, so we will just begin there and with what I posted this weekend.

My sharpest, year to year, forecast wasn’t so sharp to start the playoffs. It was correct with the Houston moneyline and with Houston covering the spread, at least until the line moved and a bet was no longer triggered. Raw scores aside, the forecasts were never right again.

It was wrong on the TOTAL in that first game and went on to be wrong on the TOTAL for the next two games. The final game had no TOTAL prediction. Against the spread, it was wrong in the next three games. Again raw scores aside; there was only one moneyline prediction this weekend.

The forecast that stacks percentages was right against the spread, moneyline and TOTAL closing lines in every game with exception of the final game’s TOTAL. GB/NYG went OVER while it predicted an UNDER. Like I said before, it failed against the DET/SEA opening TOTAL, but succeeded against the close.

Clearly we see an extreme shift in money around the marketplace. This is no surprise for something like football. Further, other metrics show a very one-sided weekend for certain groups of bettors win or lose.

What most see at this point as extreme could be that all favorites covered, or that all home teams covered, or something simple. When considering the favorites all covering, even in the simplest form, the market is crying for an upset or underdog. Add to that some of my posts earlier when talking about upsets and you can see the picture seems even more extreme.

Because sports happen daily, I have managed to quantify some of these effects on the marketplace and much of that become the basis for some of these “metrics” I often talk about.

The main take away is the shift in money. These markets are give and take and eventually they’ll seek some sort of equilibrium.

I want to stop here. This was just an assessment of what just happened in the NFL this weekend. Remember, both the NBA and NCAAB are decent markets that also received an influx of money due to the NFL occurring. The NFL is over for the weekend so the task will be to bridge the gaps between markets from a numbers perspective. How can groups betting the NFL be equated with NCAAF groups or NBA bettors?

[KVB]

As you may have guessed, I’m going to make a case for Clemson to beat Alabama tomorrow night. Unfortunately, I don’t have three projections for the college games. I have two: my forecast and the public gauge.

The sharpest forecast I create in college football is a lot like the forecasts I get when stacking percentages. There isn’t a significant difference between regular season and post season performance (most likely because it is designed to cross conferences). That said, it can be more precise, and perform better, when good teams and programs play each other. This is true with the all of my forecasts in both NFL and NCAAF.

That forecast gives Alabama the win with 41 points to Clemson’s 34 or 35 points (each score with equal probability). That’s a 6 or 7 point win, matching the market perfectly.

The non-predictive public gauge has Alabama winning 31-20.

I want to say something about my “market metrics.” Sometimes I say a metric indicates money may flow one way, or another. Or I may say metrics indicate certain forecasts will fail. These metrics act as indices in a sense, are numbers based, but aren’t usually built into the forecast. They have behaviors and historical patterns. I consider things like betting volume when addressing the issues; it’s an often overlooked or underestimated piece of information (serious tip dropped as a reward for those daring to tackle my posts).

In certain environments, I have found a small fudge factor that does incorporate some of these metrics into the forecast. This very often sharpens the line and gives a good indication of an advantage play from market moving money, with proof found in historical line movement.

Based on objective reason, that factor can be applied here. When applied, my refined prediction becomes Alabama winning 41-31.

This may come into play for this game. I’ve identified and posted about situations in the past where the market sidelines certain groups of bettors as it anticipates a certain result against a spread, moneyline, or total.

This is where we bridge the gap. My percentage stacking forecast of Alabama winning 41 to 34 or 35 is representative of those groups being directed by the same type of forecast in the NFL.

That’s right, those guys who just cleaned up in the NFL this weekend have Alabama winning (who doesn’t in a data driven forecast, right?). But those guys have no triggered bet against the spread. They are sidelined. I believe this is done to ease pressure on any Clemson money against the spread. At best, these guys, flush with cash, have the Alabama moneyline to work with.

The public gauge implies pressure on Alabama but we know the public and TV also like Clemson, keeping the money fairly split. Many public bettors will feel “safe” with the spread if they are not sure of the upset, but we know many will take the upset moneyline, while the spread at less than a TD is what Bama backers will likely take, at least in a public sense.

If we look at the line, it may be at -6.5, it may go to -7, and maybe then back to -6.5, but we do not see it go towards -6. Notice the refined forecast of 41-31 is consistent with the tendency for the line to weight towards Alabama.

So most numbers point towards Alabama to win and anything outside of my forecast of 41-34 or 35 leans towards Alabama against the spread. The line opening a half tick below 7 may be exploiting this fact.

Sure, most unsophisticated bettors buying a moneyline are likely eating Clemson instead of paying for Alabama but many groups know better and are willing to pay prices for advantage winners. The market differentiates between these bettors and plays a give and take for each group. This game has a healthy split.

I think it goes back to the easing of certain types of pressure on the Clemson spread by keeping the line where it is and being willing to accept the split as it is and pay those Clemson dog bettors.

Is Alabama to win but not cover in the cards? Most certainly, but I believe these odds in this situation make Clemson Tigers +200 and +7 (-105) over Alabama Crimson Tide the bet to make.

Remember, this is not a chase. We are not doubling up until an upset comes. We are examining each game on its own and within the context of the broader environment, looking at the odds (2 to 1), and betting the same unit as other plays.

Good Luck.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

KVB, why aren't you betting the over? Your predicted total is almost 3 tds over the current total.

[PerfectGrape]

[PerfectGrape]

dal makhani

[KVB]

KVB, why aren't you betting the over? Your predicted total is almost 3 tds over the current total.

Actually, I am. I wanted to do a quicker write-up on that earlier today but a few things got me really sidetracked. You're right I've predicted it much higher and look for that forecast to hold true.

I checked in to say I picked up OVER 51 (-105) for Clemson Vs. Alabama.

There's some history leading up to this play regarding the forecasts, just no time to lay it down.

Good Luck guys.

[KVB]

I have to check in a bit later. That TOTAL is open parlay material , made an open 4 pick...

To Win	Short Description
	Football - 151 Clemson +200 for Game
	Football - 151 Clemson +7 -105 for Game
	Football - 151 Clemson/Alabama over 51 -105 for Game
Open	Football - 151 Clemson/Alabama over 51 -110 for Game

[KVB]

dal makhani

Whatchu eatin' on Grapes? Sounds good.

[PerfectGrape]

always get dal makhani, indian lentil dish. later learned that makhani means butter, no wonder i enjoy the dish so much. local indian place finally reopened after the holiday break . need to drop the sunday gravy recipe. slow cook tomato sauce and sausage/meats for 3-4 hours. shits all over manster's crappy recipes

[PerfectGrape]

http://newatlas.com/us-military-biod...-bullet/47302/

tailed you on clemson kvb, lets get it dog

[KVB]

Not going to lie, I am very heavy on Clemson -9.5 for the second half. I have it all over the place at everywhere from -140 to -145.

I couldn't post in time to say go get it, but I can say now that Clemson TD is quite a relief. I would not want to lose this bet.

[KVB]

[KVB]

Hit them live, let's see an upset. We deserve it.

Short Description

- Money Line: Clemson +286.139 - Mon Jan 09 2017 19:51EST: Clemson vs Alabama

[PerfectGrape]

Woo!

[PerfectGrape]

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Great work, KVB. I slammed over 51 -101 at nitrogen for a couple grand. I was teetering on the bet...saw your post and felt better.

[KVB]

Fuk yeah guys. We deserve this one. I mentioned even when reviewing the NFL losses that we could learn something.

As usual, it's the same lesson...patience.

These markets run deep and can really string it out. As you can see, it took a lot just to get to the point of a Clemson upset. It really did remind me of that CFL grey cup and the weeks leading up to it.

If Bama had won the game, you might find me trying to convince you that New England was going to lose to Houston. Then again, a lot of players got paid on Clemson and the NFL itself will eventually get a dog.



Time to celebrate but a couple of notes.

I still don't think that Cleveland upset satisfied the AFC North's "appetite" for the dog and the Steelers remain. Something to watch.

It's hard to just say what makes an upset or favorite, or anything. I've always wanted to show these types of things by example. It took some bold losses to show it, but if you followed these recent posts I think you, once again, got a taste of a real life example of the give and take of these markets.

Thanks for being patient with the posts, I know they were a bit thick. It seems like nobody posts like I do, win or lose.

So Fuk yeah guys, let's celebrate.

[KVB]

This clip almost brought a tear to my eye Grapes.

[KVB]

FIDEL CASHFLOW!!!!!!

check in, pal.

[Auto Donk]

after the Bash, SBR Brass is going to assign JJ Gold to keep an eye on me and make sure nothing happens to me, either....

[DiggityDaggityDo]