[sando]

NBA Finals

Already have 2 units down on Cav's 1st Half ML tomorrow, and considering adding more. Love Cleveland tomorrow. This game is their game 7, there is no way in the world they come back from 0-3 against the Warriors & I'm sure they know this. In fact I like Cleveland to win the whole game & probably by double digits.

playing...

2 units on Cleveland 1st H ML ($1.90 Sportsbet)
0.5 units on Cleveland 11+ ($5.65 Sportsbet)

Also I have played a Lebron assists/rebounds prop in both game 1 & 2. It was over 15.5 in game 1 & over 16.5 in game 2. Cashed both games. Will almost certainly play again for a unit providing it's no more than 16.5.

[kingsr]

I've taken first 10 points in the match - Cavs @ $2.00 Centrebet

I think they'll come hard out of the gates. Weighing up a play on 1st quarter and 1st half now.

[sando]

Early plays...

AFL

Carlton v St Kilda
2.5* Carlon -8.5 (William Hill)

Saints missing some key talls up front & down back won't help their cause.

Hawthorn v Essendon
3* Hawthorn -66.5 (Ladbrokes/Luxbet/Bet365)

Two reasons why I particularly like this play.
1. Hawthon's % is horrible (108.94), the worst by far of all the top 8 teams. This is their best chance of the season to get a serious % boost. They will be looking for a 100 point win.
2. Woosha has said he will not be piling players behind the ball in an effort to "limit the damage", and instead will look to take the Hawkers on.

A couple of bonus points...
-Game is at Etihad, so the weather is irrelevant & we should have a fast track.
-McDonald-Tipungwuti is probable to sit this one out as he has been the Don's most damaging player this season with his explosive runs of half back & Rioli like tackling.
-The Hawkers hate Essendon (feeling is mutual), so there is very little chance they will ease up on the Don's if they are flogging them.

[kingsr]

Check out this great video

https://www.facebook.com/therealmark...2885120423183/

Can't flappin wait!

[sando]

Check out this great video

https://www.facebook.com/therealmark...2885120423183/

Can't flappin wait!

Yeah I feel bad for Lesnar, I love watching him fight & I'm stoked he's back. But Hunt's gonna KTFO. Will be lucky to get out of the 1st round. You know Mark trained at my gym in Adelaide (Cardioflex) to prepare for his fight with Miocic. Really nice guy. Posed for photos with the lads. We have the only MMA cage in little old Adelaide haha.

[kingsr]

Yeah I feel bad for Lesnar, I love watching him fight & I'm stoked he's back. But Hunt's gonna KTFO. Will be lucky to get out of the 1st round. You know Mark trained at my gym in Adelaide (Cardioflex) to prepare for his fight with Miocic. Really nice guy. Posed for photos with the lads. We have the only MMA cage in little old Adelaide haha.

Holy shit! That's fukn awesome. Would love to meet that animal haha. Machine human. Can't wait for the fight!!!!

Btw just added Cavs 1st q - $1.87 and Cavs 1st -1 $1.91

Let's get this!

[kingsr]

Just worked out, as a non-pro I can only transfer 2 X points per day.

[therealdealau]

Love the plays Sando, Carlton should eat up the Saints... I also don't mind the Lions against my boys...

[sando]

Love the plays Sando, Carlton should eat up the Saints... I also don't mind the Lions against my boys...

Thanks mate! So glad to see you hear from you. I'm not so sure about the Lions, I think now that the dockers have had a win it will give them some much needed confidence. They really have the lions covered up forward and down back, it's just in the midfield that the Lions are so strong but missing their two best in Beams & Christensen. Such a small line, I'm almost certainly going to play the dockers either ATS or 1-39. I think they'll want to go into the bye feeling good on a mini winning streak. Too much pride in those boys.

[sando]

Yeah I feel bad for Lesnar, I love watching him fight & I'm stoked he's back. But Hunt's gonna KTFO. Will be lucky to get out of the 1st round. You know Mark trained at my gym in Adelaide (Cardioflex) to prepare for his fight with Miocic. Really nice guy. Posed for photos with the lads. We have the only MMA cage in little old Adelaide haha.

image.jpeg


Overeem came to our gym as well.

image.jpeg

[kingsr]

Hawks line dropped to 61.5. Any news/outs announced ?

[sando]

NRL

Broncos v Raiders
2* Broncos team total over 25.5 ($1.81 Sportsbet. Over 26 available at Luxbet for $1.95)
5 try's, 3 coversions - bang.
1* Brisbane -10 (Luxbet)
Broncos are the best ATS team (home). Statistically & historically the Raiders are in trouble tonight...

Hawks line dropped to 61.5. Any news/outs announced ?

That's the risk with making plays early in the week. I'll get back to you.

[kingsr]

Down to 59.5 now

damn I took them at 66.5 albeit for a small amount.

[sando]

NBA Finals



playing...

2 units on Cleveland 1st H ML ($1.90 Sportsbet)
0.5 units on Cleveland 11+ ($5.65 Sportsbet)

Had 1 unit on Cav's 1st Q as well. Huge day for me. Over 5 units profit...

[italianbandit]

Nice day Sando.

[sando]

Down to 59.5 now

damn I took them at 66.5 albeit for a small amount.

Mitchell & Gunston both in doubt. That would do it...

Boys may have to make a small adjustment to the play tonight after teams are announced. Anyone who tailed please check back tonight or tomorrow morning.

[kingsr]

Very nice day! Thank you Cavs <3

i think GSW is the play for Game 4.

Nice work Sando! Keep it up bro

[kingsr]

Mitchell & Gunston both in doubt. That would do it...

Boys may have to make a small adjustment to the play tonight after teams are announced. Anyone who tailed please check back tonight or tomorrow morning.

That would do it. I hope Mitchell plays, or maybe both! Wouldn't surprise me if they're rested though, it's a flap easy game to win for them.

[kingsr]

Brisbane Broncos – Total Team tries over 4.5 $2.06 @centrebet – 1U

[burkestar]

Hey sando am I missing something here?, why are GWS favourites over swans and attracting support. Don't follow AFL too closely but haven't swans been playing lights out and already beat GWS this year I believe? seems odd to me, surely there are injuries or something else that has come into play here

[sando]

Hey sando am I missing something here?, why are GWS favourites over swans and attracting support. Don't follow AFL too closely but haven't swans been playing lights out and already beat GWS this year I believe? seems odd to me, surely there are injuries or something else that has come into play here

Well top 8 teams are 2-14 away against other top 8 teams this year mate, although 1 of those wins was the Swans (Hawthorn - MCG). So much of the GWS spreads are based on potential - that is the potential that they are always threatening to show but never for a full game. At their best they play in 10-15 min patches that is better football than even Sydney or Geelong is capable of. They will be a very very good team, not quite there yet but could be premiership favourites by as early as next season. Line is about right IMO. Swans are the best team this year, however I feel GWS is set for this game (especially after 2 losses) & will indeed win. Already lining up a 1-39 play on GWS

[ender749]

Mitchell & Gunston both in doubt. That would do it...

Boys may have to make a small adjustment to the play tonight after teams are announced. Anyone who tailed please check back tonight or tomorrow morning.

what do you suggest we do Sando? let it ride? thanks!

[kingsr]

Let it ride if it's not a big play IMO. I think they'll still cover it.

Edit: carlton line has dropped to 6.5

[sando]

what do you suggest we do Sando? let it ride? thanks!

The reason i posted those early AFL plays, was because I expected the lines to move out more & wanted to grab them while they were "good". Grading lines is what I consider my biggest strength in handicapping, so it's rare that I would be wrong on both games. No way is Mitchell worth 2 and a half goals. I think punters may not realise that despite the horrible weather in Melbourne this match is at Etihad, not the 'G and so obviously the roof will be closed. Hawks could still win by 100, but they are certainly not the same team without their 3 biggest stars (Mitchell, Hodge, Roughie).

The plan is if the Hawks get out to an early lead and the line moves above 60 either at the quarter time or half time break, will hedge out by backing the Bombers for 1.5 units at the + to then reduce the liability on the original Hawks -66.5 play to 1.5 units. I never normally post live bets (which are actually the majority of what I do), however this is a special exception because the line has moved so savagely against us. If the line doesn't move back above 60, will just then let it ride, no need to panic, Hawks were playing poorly for 3 quarters against the Lions and were only up by 12 at 3QT, before turning it on in the last Q and winning by 48. hawks are a very fast scoring team when they get rolling.

No play on NRL tonight. Shit game. 2 shit teams, bunnies are very overrated, their backline is horrible with both Nielson & Auva'a in the 3/4. Lean over & was going to play it for a unit or two before it slipped over 44.

Back later. Need to get sleep before work.

[ender749]

Thanks Sando. You are right, getting to lines early is key. The very best handicappers consistently beat closing lines (as do you! ) Occasionally some injury news may go against you, but in the long run a risk worth taking.

Let's ship it anyway!

[Shazzadude]

So would you recommend a 3 unit play at -52.5 still Sando, or would you not be so interested?

[sando]

Hawks look great. 13 scoring shots in 1st Q. Im gonna have a look at another Q although unlikely to hedge out at this stage. For those who followed the big play at -66.5, not only can you hedge out but you have a massive middling opportunity, as the live line is currently 92.5. Good luck to all. Hawks should do a number here...

Ps - Shazza I hope you jumped on the Hawks at the -51.5

[kingsr]

Hell yeah! Hawks wiped the floor with them $$$$$

[garygroundwork]

Nice work Sando. Go the Hawks!

[sando]

NBA - Nothing today. I hope the Warriors win, but I think the Cav's win. Lean 1st H under.

NRL

Eels v Titans
2.5* Titans -2

Roosters v Storm
1* Under 37.5
1* Storm 1-12 ($3.15 William Hill)

Manly v Penrith
2* Penrith -4.5 (-5.5 is ok)



AFL

Port v Western Bulldogs
1* Port Adelaide 1-39 ($2.30 Sportsbet)

Brisbane v Freo
2* Under 184.5

North v Geelong
2* North Melbourne ML
1* North Melbourne 1st Q ML ($2.00 everywhere)
North's strongest quarters are their 1st Q (8-3 this year with an outstanding 166.7%). Geelong's weakest quarter is their 1st Q (5-5-1 with a poor 93.9%)

West Coast v Adelaide
2.5* West Coast -14.5 (William Hill/Pinnacle)

GWS v Sydney
1* Under 176.5
1* GWS 1-39 ($2.45 Sportsbet)

[sando]

Correction - Brisbane v Freo is Under 188 (available at Pinnacle). Probably won't last...

[sando]

Correction - Brisbane v Freo is Under 188 (available at Pinnacle). Probably won't last...

Also the price for North Melbourne ML is $2.18 (also at Pinnacle. $2.15 available at Sportsbet)

[kingsr]

A lot of plays today Sando! GL with all, they look solid

[BigNik]

North Melb have come out of halt time break sleep walking

[ender749]

A lot of plays today Sando! GL with all, they look solid

wow just getting slaughtered.

and to finish the day off, ENG get swindled in the dying seconds... had ENG to win 1-0 and 2-0.

here's to a better Sunday!