1. 01-28-16 12:57 AM #491
    TenCount
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    I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.
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  2. 01-28-16 07:37 AM #492
    greally311
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    Is it profitable at this point in the season? Appears that both are in the red. Although, I have seen these types of systems play out towards the end of the season so I am thinking of holding on.
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  3. 01-28-16 07:47 AM #493
    cheyou
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    1/27 Results
    Morrison 1-7-5 System
    Dallas V3 [C] LOSS
    Phoenix V2 [B] LOSS
    Denver V1 [A] WIN

    1/28 Plays
    #99 Sacramento v3 [B]
    #101 Chicago v1 [A]
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  4. 01-28-16 07:57 AM #494
    LasVegasSystems
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grivas_Digeni View Post
    Are you familiar with gambler's fallacy?

    Manage your stacks and you'll be fine. Regression expectation has killed many a bankroll
    Yes- I wrote a book about it but that assumes that each outcome is independent of another (50/50). That is not the case when you have a positive expectation (probability of winning). Successive loses in such a context increase the probability of winning with each additional losing outcome. Probability outcomes can be absolutely ascertained.
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  5. 01-28-16 10:22 AM #495
    bravoman81
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    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegasSystems View Post
    Yes- I wrote a book about it but that assumes that each outcome is independent of another (50/50). That is not the case when you have a positive expectation (probability of winning). Successive loses in such a context increase the probability of winning with each additional losing outcome. Probability outcomes can be absolutely ascertained.
    i'm assuming now is the time to reload in this system?
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  6. 01-28-16 10:43 AM #496
    LasVegasSystems
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravoman81 View Post
    i'm assuming now is the time to reload in this system?
    In general yes, but I use a variation of it that does make [A] bets- just [B] and [C] flat bets (no progression). So Sacramento is juicy as will be Chicago if they fail to cover versus the Lakers tonight.
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  7. 01-28-16 10:57 AM #497
    LasVegasSystems
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    Quote Originally Posted by LasVegasSystems View Post
    In general yes, but I use a variation of it that does make [A] bets- just [B] and [C] flat bets (no progression). So Sacramento is juicy as will be Chicago if they fail to cover versus the Lakers tonight.
    Should be does not make A bets.
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  8. 01-28-16 11:54 AM #498
    imotiv8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TenCount View Post
    I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.
    I think the past couple of years are proving that the best way to play this system is with the points
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  9. 01-28-16 12:23 PM #499
    bravoman81
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    Quote Originally Posted by imotiv8 View Post
    I think the past couple of years are proving that the best way to play this system is with the points
    do you mean buying the 3 points?
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  10. 01-28-16 12:28 PM #500
    imotiv8
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    ^yes

    I'll be interested to see totals if or when things get updated
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  11. 01-28-16 12:28 PM #501
    greally311
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    Files

    Does anyone have historical files of the plays and results? I can put together an analysis to see the best return based on certain subsets of the historical data. In the end, it is all data mining, but may lead us to use some needed filters so that we don't see this same volatility throughout a year.
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  12. 01-28-16 01:42 PM #502
    greally311
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    Does anyone have the historical plays (wins and losses) for previous seasons? I am offering to do a bit of analysis on that subset to see if there are any further filters we can apply. Understanding it is data mining at its best, we may be able to find some sort of filters to decrease the volatility throughout the year. Thanks
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  13. 01-28-16 02:52 PM #503
    TenCount
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    We gotta be in negative unit territory no?
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  14. 01-28-16 03:26 PM #504
    imotiv8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TenCount View Post
    We gotta be in negative unit territory no?
    The last 2 C bet losses have covered buying 3 points...so they havnt counted against the traditional system.
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  15. 01-28-16 03:37 PM #505
    TenCount
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    Quote Originally Posted by imotiv8 View Post
    The last 2 C bet losses have covered buying 3 points...so they havnt counted against the traditional system.
    O wow yeah I didn't notice that since I have been blinded by the 1-7-5 destruction. There is still a lot of time left in the season to recover in the 1-7-5. Wish I had the time to do some backtests and see if this kind of roller coaster is the norm or if this is completely out of the ordinary....
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  16. 01-28-16 03:48 PM #506
    greally311
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    Does anyone have historical data? Happy to do some digging and analysis.
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  17. 01-29-16 08:35 AM #507
    Andy3568
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    1-7-5 1/28 Results

    Sacramento v3 [B] Loss
    Chicago v1 [A] Win

    1-7-5 1/29 Plays

    Phoenix v1 [C]
    Orlando v3 [C]
    Minnesota v3 [A]
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  18. 01-29-16 09:14 AM #508
    TenCount
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    I actually don't hate the Orlando line tonight at Boston (+8.5 at my book right now). Once again I am not touching Phoenix...
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  19. 01-29-16 09:18 AM #509
    bravoman81
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    wallco's got ORL on a C bet as well on his system but his system goes do a D as the final.
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  20. 01-29-16 10:07 AM #510
    CJ
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    Wallco's C bets are 2-5 though, and the C bets in the V3 series have been particularly bad for the 1-7-5 system.

    I'd use caution if you're taking Orlando tonight. Good luck to all those sticking it out!
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  21. 01-29-16 01:53 PM #511
    reddevils64
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    Anyone liking phoenix tonight ?
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  22. 01-29-16 05:15 PM #512
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by reddevils64 View Post
    Anyone liking phoenix tonight ?
    Not even their coach.
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  23. 01-29-16 08:39 PM #513
    TenCount
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    I literally couldn't pick games this bad if I tried to. Jesus. I'm done. Good luck the rest of the season boys.
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  24. 01-29-16 08:45 PM #514
    reddevils64
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    Money saved on Phoenix once again, think I'm going to play against them every game now.
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  25. 01-29-16 08:48 PM #515
    TenCount
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    Quote Originally Posted by reddevils64 View Post
    Money saved on Phoenix once again, think I'm going to play against them every game now.
    I'm gonna save my money the rest of the way by losing the link to this system... What a joke
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  26. 01-29-16 09:09 PM #516
    imotiv8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TenCount View Post
    I'm thinking it is about time to bury this system for the season. That's well over 80 units lost in less than a month.
    Now it's time...either bury it or fade it
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  27. 01-30-16 06:33 AM #517
    Andy3568
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    1-7-5 1/29 Results

    Phoenix v1 [C] Loss
    Orlando v3 [C] Loss
    Minnesota v3 [A] Loss

    1-7-5 1/30 Plays

    Sacramento     v3 [C]
    Golden State     v1 [A]
    Detroit     v3 [A]
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  28. 01-30-16 08:49 AM #518
    analyzer
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    Just this month (January) including the open series with Kings & Timberwolves my count is approximately 150.33 units lost.
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  29. 01-30-16 09:29 AM #519
    oilcountry99
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    Disaster has set in
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  30. 01-30-16 09:33 AM #520
    MikeyD323
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    Wow burn all knowledge dealing with this system
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  31. 01-30-16 09:33 AM #521
    MikeyD323
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    Or keep it going and go the other way woth the picks!!! Up 150 units! Lolol
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  32. 01-30-16 11:57 AM #522
    TenCount
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    I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...
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  33. 01-30-16 12:02 PM #523
    imotiv8
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    Quote Originally Posted by TenCount View Post
    I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...
    I believe the testing was done correctly but I sure would like to confirm that. The thing about systems is they usually only last so long. Even in the previous backtest of the 1-7-5 it showed there was potential for disaster some years.

    About this same time last year I started fading the system and ended up doing really well....obviously I lowered my units but i guess we'll see
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  34. 01-30-16 12:36 PM #524
    TenCount
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    Wallco's chase 101 system is doing well again this year wish I would have just stuck with that one and not ventured off course!! lol
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  35. 01-30-16 06:25 PM #525
    Wallco99
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    Quote Originally Posted by TenCount View Post
    I will be starting my own backtest on this 1-7-5 system... I'm really worried that the testing on this was not done correctly...
    Wrong!!!!
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