[BeatingBaseball]

The following is surely more than you ever wanted to know re the 2013 World Series -

I've had the Series winner right the last 3 yrs (all dogs) and 6 of L7 overall. Those picks were all made with conviction - but this one for me is really tough - the tightest matchup in recent memory. Going into the post season, I liked both of these teams to get here - with the A's and Reds having an outside shot - and my lean had Boston being a little better than STL. But that was before we experienced the October super nova that is Michael Wacha. I no longer see Boston as better.

The Red Sox are Series favs - opening at -145. For that they can thank the 10 AL pitchers who combined to shut out the NL in the All-Star game at Citi Field back in July. Absent the home field edge - I really can't find a basis to justify Boston as favs here - it's about as even a Series as I can imagine. Both teams finished the reg season schedule at the top of their respective leagues with identical 95-67 records. Even the home/road splits were only 1 game off of matching identically. And when you start breaking down the internals - adjusting for the DH - you find equivalence almost everywhere that really matters. The Cards were the highest scoring team in the NL - same for the Red Sox in the AL. You look at doubles - Boston hit the most in the AL - same for the Cards in the NL. You look at the skippers - and both guys are managing in their first World Series. And what are the odds on this one? - over 162 games - the Cards pitching staff allowed exactly 1366 hits. And the Boston staff allowed exactly 1366 hits.

One thing is clear - both of these lineups can rake.

What will most likely determine the winner here - as it so often does - will be pitching - and more specifically the starting pitching.

Boston of course just faced some great pitching in the ALCS. The Tigers starting rotation was lights out. The Red Sox got here one way - and one way only - by ripping the Detroit bullpen. The Game 6 clincher was representative of that entire series - as soon as Leyland took the ball from Scherzer, it was over - Detroit was dead - and everyone, including I think Jimmy - knew it. But the Red Sox can in no way plan on winning like that this time around. If they come up empty against the Cardinals starting staff and can't establish a lead after 6 or 7 innings in these games - they are not going to be World Champions. They're not facing the Tigers' bullpen here.

But the same applies to the Cardinals. They too will have to do some business against the Boston rotation because Tazawa and Uehara don't figure to give you anything either. As bullpens have become progressively more important as an outcome determinant in MLB over the years - they have also become a more critical measure in handicapping. The lack of a solid pen puts a big hole in a team's chance to win - but for these two clubs it doesn't figure to be an issue. The biggest question for me in this one therefore comes down to who has the starting rotation that can best shut down the other's lineup.

One general disadvantage for the RedBirds is that they have an all RH starting rotation. And not only the starters - but all their best relievers are RHers as well. They have two leftys in the pen – Randy Choate (FB86, SL, CH) and Kevin Siegrist (FB95, SL, CH) - but Choate is used almost exclusively as a matchup lefty who comes in to face one single LH guy for only one out. During the season, 85% of the STL staff's innings were thrown by RHers - and in the post season it's been 95%. That's something that Boston has to feel pretty good about. No lineup in baseball this year hit RHers as well as the Red Sox. Of course the Tigers had an all RH starting staff as well and they were able to shut down the BoSox - so it can be done - but I'm sure Matheny would be much more comfortable going into this series with at least one southpaw rotation guy or at least a top tier lefty in the pen. Success against good hitting lineups usually comes by mixing things up. It's never a good idea to game after game send guys out there who all throw from the same side and who all throw hard (and all the Cards pitchers come at you hard early - if anything Wainwright is the soft tosser) - esp against this Boston L/U in Fenway Park. If the Cards are going to win the Series - the STL starters are going to have to be great - esp the 1-2, Wainwright and Wacha, in Fenway. I think the Series will turn on their performances.

Just like the Red Sox, the Cards L/U is also at its best vs RHers. You'd never know it by their record against Kershaw, but they struggled against LHers all year. They went 19-23 against your average LH starter this season. And they will have to face a far better than average one - John Lester - not only in game 1 but likely at least once more in the Series. I see the overall LH/RH dynamic as an edge for Boston which the Cardinals will have to overcome.

Overall, both teams are well balanced but rely on great offense a little more than great pitching - at least during the regular season. The Boston staff ERA of 3.79 was 6th in the AL. The STL staff ERA of 3.42 was 5th in the NL. The absolute numbers are of course not a valid relative measure due to the DH - but the league ranking tells you a lot. Of the two, Boston has more of a strikeout staff - 1294 Ks on the year. STL pitched somewhat more to contact during the season with 1254 Ks - 40 less than the BoSox despite pitching to a lot of pitchers. Of course those season K totals reflect few Wacha innings. This kid is a game changer in that respect.

There are also a couple of other distinctions in this otherwise close matchup. One is the running game - team speed on the bases goes to the Red Sox. Boston stole 123 bags on the year. The RedBirds stole only 45. The only club with fewer SBs than STL was Detroit. 123-45 is a significant edge to say the least - esp for an AL team over a NL. Another measure of speed in the L/U is triples. The Red Sox had 29. The Cards 20. But the ace in the hole for the Cardinals in this regard of course is Yadi Molina. If anyone can neutralize a club's edge in the running game it's Molina. He's the best in the business.

Another distinction is the long ball. The Red Sox hit 178 to the Cardinals 125. The Boston slugging pct. was .446 vs .401 for STL. Some of that is again of course the DH - but bottom line is that the Cardinals relied on the home run less than any other team in MLB. Only 26% of their runs came across on Gonzos - yet they led the league in runs scored. They did it by hitting for ave. with men in scoring position - an incredible .335 as a team. They are contact hitters with men in scoring position. It can mean death by 1000 mosquito bites. Hey...home runs can be rally killers.

And on the note of hitting with RISP - a huge part of the Cards' incredible success there this year was Allen Craig. The guy was 59 for 130 w/ RISP - that's .454 - by far the best in the game. So that was no small press release this week saying that Craig will be on the W.S. roster. Even though the foot injury will keep Craig off the field defensively - he can DH in up to 4 games at Fenway. Also just as importantly he'll be available to pinch hit in the games at Busch. His very presence on the bench there can affect a game by significantly constraining Farrell in the late innings. When John Jay or another STL LH hitter is up there in a situation and Farrell knows he can probably get him with a LH reliever - he'll also know that if he makes that move it's going to be Craig off the bench to PH and Boston will be left with a really bad matchup. Thus a John Jay type may benefit and have a better chance. Maybe Adams gets a shot at a long ball off the RHer instead of striking out against the lefty who stays in the pen.

And as to the DH in general - It's always tougher for the AL team to play without a DH than it is for the NL club to drop an extra good stick in the L/U. For Farrell he has to at Busch choose between Ortiz out of the L/U and Napoli at 1st or Napoli out of the L/U and Ortiz there. You know he's going with Super Man (Ortiz) - but Napoli was actually their big run producer in the ALCS (.300 at 6 for 20 - 2 doubles, 2 bombs). To sit him is going to pain Farrell no end.

Looking position by position - I don't see any real mismatches or big edges for either side other than Molina behind the plate for the Cards and Ellsbury in CF for Boston. I figure they about cancel each other out. Offensively, Boston does get Ortiz/Napoli over Adams. And I usually give the nod to Pedroia over anyone at 2nd - but Carpenter is damn close when you consider all he can do at the plate. Beltran certainly gets it in RF in the overall - but Victorino is sky high right now and is a little better defensively (ex the arm). The shortstops are a push with Kozma seeing the ball at the plate a little better than Drew right now. What might turn out most interesting will be the play of the kid Bogaerts at 3rd for Boston and that of Shane Robinson in CF for STL. It looks like Middlebrooks has lost his starting job and John Jay may have lost his as well after a really bad NLCS.

As to overall team defense I’d give a slight nod to the Red Sox - but again Molina cancels out any significant Boston edge there.

So who wins the Series?

I think the winner of the Series will be the winner of Game 1. And in Game 1 - I have to go with Wainwright - esp at the +price.

I like Lester and played him often at good profit this year - but I believe Wainwright is the better big game pitcher. Waino has had possibly the best year of his career. The 241 innings and the 219 Ks against only 35 BBs says it all. He's at more than full rest for Game 1 - and 4 of his 5 complete games this year came on more than full rest. That against the fact that Boston starters have finished 6 innings in only 4 of their 10 post season games to date.

An important principle of The Cardinal Way is establishing yourself early in the game and early in a series. The RedBirds try to be at full intensity and often on the scoreboard before the other club has warmed into it and is ready to play. The Cards certainly established themselves early in the series against LAD by getting the first two games - and the Dodgers were not able to recover. I think Wainwright can get the first one here. Should he do so it will relieve a lot of pressure on Wacha. The kid has been the best pitcher in baseball for the last month. If Wacha follows up with a W the Series is likely over. But even if he can't - the Cards will head home with the split they need at Fenway and will be in great shape.

The key to this Series is Wainwright in Games 1 & 5 and Wacha in Games 2 & 6. The Cardinals need 2 of those 4 to have any chance and 3 of those 4 will make them 12-time World Champions.

A series bet on STL is a bet on Wainwright and Wacha.

Cardinals in 6.

MVP Wainwright, or Wacha…

…or Yadi Molina. So often in the post season – the team with the best catcher wins.


STL Series Play +125 for 2 Units.
STL/Wainwright First Five Game 1 at +110 for 2 Units
STL/Wainwright Full Game 1 at +110 for 2 Units.



BTW – a note for 2014 - in going through all the season stats for this Series - one club stands out as the next up and coming team in MLB - it's the KC Royals - they had a great year - better than I realized. Their baseball operation is doing a great job. Hopefully they can keep some of that talent together.

[EXhoosier10]

I think the royals are still 1 or 2 more impact talents away from being a serious threat for the WS, but if they can upgrade SP or middle infield, they should be one of the teams expected to win a WC spot (assuming Moustakas doesn't suck again).

WRT the WS, i like your take on it. It's definitely going to be a battle and I lean Yadi at +odds

[italianbandit]

Nice writeup, I've come to similar conclusions. Cards FF +110 is the most appealing to me.

[Itsamazing777]

The tiger rotation was all righties as well....

Any opinions on the under for game 1?
ive already locked in a cardinal ml and under 7 parlay, so I want to feel good about myself lol.

[BeatingBaseball]

Yes. I mentioned that the Tigers starters were all RH as well. Obviously not saying an all RH rotation can't be successful vs BoSox if they pitch great - just that it's not the ideal way to go about it. Usually a lot easier to mix it up some. As to Totals - you're asking the wrong guy there. I don't bet Totals for many reasons - not the least of which is I don't like betting into 20 cent lines on a regular basis. Tough enough to beat 10 cent lines. The series play is on a 20 cent line but series plays don't come around that often and you also have the added value and flexibility to hedge or press those as the series goes along.

[Itsamazing777]

Yes. I mentioned that the Tigers starters were all RH as well. Obviously not saying an all RH rotation can't be successful vs BoSox if they pitch great - just that it's not the ideal way to go about it. Usually a lot easier to mix it up some. As to Totals - you're asking the wrong guy there. I don't bet Totals for many reasons - not the least of which is I don't bet into 20 cent lines. Tough enough to beat 10 cent lines.

I know I hate totals. Just took a shot

[Checkerboard]

thanks for sharing bb, bol everybody!

[BeatingBaseball]

So here we go. gentlemen. They'll be swinging the bats tonight with a good pitcher's umpire back there in John Hirschbeck. Should be a great one. Thanks to face and Delish for the points. Best of Luck to all.

[ridersonthestorm]

Fark man, Wainwright and Cards have raised a white flag already and it's just 2 innings gone.

Bunch of Keystone cops or rather clowns.

The only positive thing is Beltran robbing a grand slam, but it is a small consolation. Cards to lose by -teens anyway.

[BeatingBaseball]

We've seen a lot of great games this post season but tonight's W.S. opener was not one of 'em. Tip if the cap to Lester. He got my money tonight. Ugly game for the Cardinals - put themselves in the hole with the shaky defense top 1 and that was it - chance to get back in w/ plenty of RISP in 4th and 5th but no dice. Now pressure to win tomorrow makes it tougher on the rookie Wacha. Hopefully Beltran's injury will not be Hanley Ramirez NLCS 2.0.

[BeatingBaseball]

Game 2 - The Red Sox sure have a lot of reasons to be confident after last night. Everything went their way right from the get-go. It started with Lester. He obviously brought his A game – looked like he wouldn’t need any help (vaseline or otherwise) - but he got it anyway – from the Cardinals themselves. Apart from their defense making 3 errors in a game for only the second time all year – the RedBirds’ lineup was also extremely generous. Christmas came early to Fenway.

Although battling at the plate, making pitchers work for their outs and running up pitch counts has been a hallmark of the Cards’ approach – esp this post season where going into last night they had seen more pitches per AB than any other lineup - they for some reason took a totally different approach to Lester. They went up there wailing at the first FB they saw – frequently the first pitch. As a result, Lester found himself back in his seat on the bench before it could cool off. ESPN reported that the first two innings lasted 47 minutes and the RedBirds’ were at the plate for less than 9 of those 47 mins. In football vernacular it was – “one helluva time of possession ass kickin’.” Whether it was just GreenMonster-itis on the hitters’ part or a purposeful strategy by Matheny and his coaches - it didn’t work. Expect to see a lot less aggressiveness/anxiousness and a lot more patience/plate discipline on the part of the Cards’ L/U tonight.

In contrast to the Cardinals, Boston took the same approach at the plate that they have all year. They were patient with Wainwright starting with Ellsbury’s walk to lead off the 1st. Over the regular season, Red Sox hitters saw more pitches per AB than even STL or any L/U in MLB – more than 4 per – and they took more first pitches than any other team. Their approach is to exhaust the opposing starter’s pitch count so they can kill the bullpen guys. It worked like a charm against Detroit - and it worked for them against Wainwright last night as they refused to swing at the great curve ball breaking out of the zone. They hit the FB and they hit the CH. Some good news for STL backers tonight, however, is that Wacha is a guy who goes right at you early with FBs in the zone – so taking pitches can backfire and put a hitter in a big hole. 0-1, 0-2, 1-2 is not where you want to be against a guy with the swing and miss stuff of Wacha. And many Red Sox hitters have particularly high swing/miss rates and K rates.

Getting game 1 of the Series was of course huge for Boston. In recent years the first W has been highly predictive of the Series outcome. The team that has won the opener has gone on to win the Series 14 times in the L16 yrs (87.5%) and in 21 of the L25 (84%). Needless to say - the Cards need to fully turn the page on an ugly road performance – and recover quickly - or this may not be much of a Series. It’s not going to be easy. The Red Sox had the best home record in the AL this year at 53-28 (.654) - only ATL won more games at home in the regular season (56). Not to mention that STL has already lost 4 of 6 road games this post season. And to make matters worse - it appears that Carlos Beltran, one of the best RBI guys in post season history, may be significantly compromised tonight and possibly for the rest of the Series after last night’s injury to the right side of his rib cage.

Fenway will be amped up tonight - it’s going to be loud – and the Red Sox are going to take the field fired up and full of confidence as the only thing standing between them and a 2-0 Series lead is a 22 yr old rookie pitcher.

But don’t underestimate the Cardinals. They’re an extremely resilient club. They’ve battled though a lot of adversity this year. They not only lost Chris Carpenter, Jason Motte, and Furcal early on – they lost Allen Craig for the stretch drive – yet still won the most competitive division in MLB and gained the top NL seed for the playoffs. I don’t expect them to roll over and hand Boston another one. To the contrary, I see them coming back strong and winning tonight. And winning the Series as well.

Just pressed my STL Series play at +200 – just as I did when they were down 2 games to 1 to the Pirates in the Division Series when they were getting +175. As the NLDS is only a five game set – the Cards were facing elimination on the road in Game 4. They needed to win both of the two potential games remaining. And the primary reason I pressed the bet on them then is the same reason I it pressed today – Michael Wacha. I thought he would win Game 4 in Pittsburgh and get his club back home to win the Division Series. He did. I think he will win Game 2 tonight - and get his club back home with the Series square at 1-1. If he does so – the home field advantage reverses and the RedBirds will be the chalk in this World Series.

It’s a lot to ask of a rookie – but not much more than asking him to win an elimination game 4 of the NLDS – and certainly not more than asking him to beat Clayton Kershaw in the NLCS – twice.

STL Series Play Press at +200 for 2 Units – Now Total of 4 Units at +162.5
STL/Wacha First Five Game 2 at +105 for 2 Units
STL/Wacha Full Game 2 at +110 for 2 Units

[BeatingBaseball]

The 5 inning money is in.

[BeatingBaseball]

A great night all the way around. It's all about the price. As bad as it was last night - anyone who has followed comes out of the two games at Fenway +money - and with the Series plays in great shape. Somewhere up there Stan The Man, Enos Slaughter, Jack Buck - and maybe even Harry Caray are smilin' tonight. Don't remember ever seeing so many phenomenal young pitchers on one club - or in baseball overall for that matter with Matt Harvey, Gerrtitt Cole, Sonny Gray, Corbin in AZ and the Miami Marlins kid, etc, etc.

[Luv2Play2]

A great night all the way around. It's all about the price. As bad as it was last night - anyone who has followed comes out of the two games at Fenway +money - and with the Series plays in great shape. Somewhere up there Stan The Man, Enos Slaughter, Jack Buck - and maybe even Harry Caray are smilin' tonight. Don't remember ever seeing so many phenomenal young pitchers on one club - or in baseball overall for that matter with Matt Harvey, Gerrtitt Cole, Sonny Gray, Corbin in AZ and the Miami Marlins kid, etc, etc.

IVE already looked at gm4 and i dont understand why lynn is placed ahead of miller? he walks less " and we know how that will bite u in the azz.." he beans less hitters!!! lol maybe not a good thing.ie hanley.. has been take'n yard afew more times but more K's and lights out on the hump at home.. saving him for long relief? really? cards are not a great come from behind team.. so you yank your starter after he gets drilled for 4or5 early and throw miller to the wolves? lynn knows what that feels like..i just dont understand ? 1 of a few places i stop to shop .. bol always L2P2

[whtsox13]

For what its worth (about nothing, but interesting stat)-
In the divisional era (since 1969), the Game 3 winner in a World Series tied 1-1 has won 16 of the 18 series, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In that span, the only Game 3 winners in a World Series tied 1-1 to lose the series that year were the 2003 Yankees and 1979 Orioles.

[Bostongambler]

Naps out of the lineup to kkep Big Papi in at first since there is no DH will hurt them, but still like the Sox here.

gl

[EXhoosier10]

For what its worth (about nothing, but interesting stat)-
In the divisional era (since 1969), the Game 3 winner in a World Series tied 1-1 has won 16 of the 18 series, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. In that span, the only Game 3 winners in a World Series tied 1-1 to lose the series that year were the 2003 Yankees and 1979 Orioles.

Pretty much worth nothing. assuming a 50/50 chance of winning every game, after being up 2-1, on average, the leading team will win 78% of the time, or 14 of those 18 trials. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Assuming a -120 every game, they'll win 15 on average.

[BeatingBaseball]

...i dont understand why lynn is placed ahead of miller?...

I wouldn't second guess Matheny on this. There is just too much he knows about his club and his pitchers that we are not privy to. It could be anything - something physical that they don't want to reveal, something to do with the specific matchups, some breech of club rules/discipline or just that Matheny/Lilliquist have had reason to lose confidence in Miller for some reason. You really can't fairly judge it from outside the organization. Lynn of course did have a bad outing vs the Pirates in the NLDS, but came through with 2 W's vs LAD in NLCS. I do remember Miller having a very ugly outing in Pittsburgh down the stretch - that may have factored into Miller's being used for only 1 inning vs Pirates and of course he gave up a long one in even his one NLDS inn. That then may have set the tone for his absence from the NLCS. I do see Miller as basically a 2-pitch pitcher (FB,CU) whereas Lynn mixes it up more with FB, SL, CU, CH. I don't think anyone can argue with Mathey's post season decision making in general. He has pressed all the right buttons - keeping his club alive after a horrendous game 1 of the W.S. to benching Jay and Kozma following bad performances and then getting something out of them later to pinch running for Freese and the double steal in the 7th of game 2 to sticking with the young Martinez and not going to Choate vs Ortiz in the 8th of game 2. I think he's actually been masterful with his moves and has outmanaged Farrell to this point.

[BeatingBaseball]

Game 3 – Although Busch Stadium may not be nearly as quirky a venue as Fenway Park – it’s every bit as tough a place for a visiting club to come into and win. The Cards are 26-6 in their L32 at home and are 5-1 at Busch in the 2013 postseason to date. The Cardinals L/U rakes at Busch and the RedBirds pitching staff is most comfortable on the home mound - they have allowed only 5 runs in those 6 post season home games this year. And you can add to all that the disadvantage of an AL club having to play absent the DH to which they are so accustomed. Since 2008 – AL clubs in the World Series have gone 3-11 in NL parks. Go back to 2001 and it’s 11-22. Needless to say - the BoSox would have been well advised to hang onto that 2-1 lead going into the top of the 7^th in game 2. They now face big trouble as the Cardinal Nation, the Clydesdales and the Birds on The Bat will be alive and kicking this weekend. It is not entirely out of the question that Red Sox may have played their last game at Fenway this year.

All that said - I remember a couple of weeks ago in an ALCS thread telling a poster that we would likely be seeing Peavy in a World Series start. That was after I played Peavy and he had a bad outing in Detroit – when, of course ex post facto, that poster and others were all saying “Peavy sucks” and it was Detroit not Boston would be going to the Series. So now we have Peavy starting game 3. Again not impossible - but I would be very surprised to see another bad outing from the veteran. A young pitcher who has a bad outing is much more apt to follow it up with another bad one than is a guy like Peavy. He apparenlty had some techniclal problem with his mechanics and release point which was causing him to lose command and fall behind the Tigers’ hitters. I fully expect that to be corrected by now. Also of note is the fact that in the horrible 2^nd inning he had in Detroit, there was a sure double play ball hit to Pedroia (and I love Pedroia) that would have made it a 1 run rather than a 5 run game busting inning. That’s baseball. But after the game, in typical Peavy style (and unlike a lesser character guy like a John Lackey) he took full responsibility. Peavy said he should have made the pitches to overcome the situation - he did not want to talk about the botched double play. Peavy is simply one of the highest character, most competitive pitchers (actually players) in this game. It’s one of the reasons his teammates love him, it’s one of the reasons Boston brought him in and it’s one of the reasons I don’t bet against Jake Peavy in big games.

Given the fact that I already have 4 units on the Cards for the Series at an overall +162 – I’m happy where I am and will be sitting this one out in terms of a wager. I can’t bet against the Cardinals at home here and I can’t bet against Jake Peavy in the most important game of his life. It’s a no play for me. Just going to enjoy the baseball.

[Luv2Play2]

I wouldn't second guess Matheny on this. There is just too much he knows about his club and his pitchers that we are not privy to. It could be anything - something physical that they don't want to reveal, something to do with the specific matchups, some breech of club rules/discipline or just that Matheny/Lilliquist have had reason to lose confidence in Miller for some reason. You really can't fairly judge it from outside the organization. Lynn of course did have a bad outing vs the Pirates in the NLDS, but came through with 2 W's vs LAD in NLCS. I do remember Miller having a very ugly outing in Pittsburgh down the stretch - that may have factored into Miller's being used for only 1 inning vs Pirates and of course he gave up a long one in even his one NLDS inn. That then may have set the tone for his absence from the NLCS. I do see Miller as basically a 2-pitch pitcher (FB,CU) whereas Lynn mixes it up more with FB, SL, CU, CH. I don't think anyone can argue with Mathey's post season decision making in general. He has pressed all the right buttons - keeping his club alive after a horrendous game 1 of the W.S. to benching Jay and Kozma following bad performances and then getting something out of them later to pinch running for Freese and the double steal in the 7th of game 2 to sticking with the young Martinez and not going to Choate vs Ortiz in the 8th of game 2. I think he's actually been masterful with his moves and has outmanaged Farrell to this point.

I WANT TO THANK YOU FOR THE TIME YOU SPENT REPLYING.. BOL ALWAYS L2P2

[BeatingBaseball]

With the Cardinals prevailing in game 3 and now up 2 games to 1 - the Series plays are in great shape. It looked like it might be an easy W for the RedBirds early on - but Peavy battled back, made big pitches in situations and gave his team a shot to win.

Not the way you want a World Series game to end - but once again the umpires got it right. Now 2 unusual/controversial umpire decisions which directly impacted the outcomes of 2 of the 3 games - one against each team - one reversing the initial call and one upholding the initial call - and both right. Cardinals were lucky that Jim Joyce was at 3rd - he too, like Crew Chief John Hirschbeck, is one of the very best. A lot of umpires are not going to make that call. It's one that has to be made immediately without hesitation or it would have been even more chaos.

The Red Sox and their fans should today focus less on the umpiring and more on the fact that the Boston lineup is now hitting .188 for the Series. They are behind 2-1 because in the last two games they have been out played and Farrell has been out managed. One of the basic principles of the Cardinal Way, in addition to the fundamentals of effort and execution – is to be aggressive on offense and conservative on defense – to push hard on the bases and keep pressure on the opposing defense – but when on defense yourself take the sure outs and don’t do anything to lose the game. Their belief is that if you do that for 9 innings you win a lot of games as you give the opposition enough time to make a mistake and beat themselves. The throws to third by Boston that got away in the last two games are great examples of the baseball wisdom inherent in the Cardinal Way. There was little to no upside in making those throws and neither throw should have been made. They cost the Red Sox 2 games and very possibly a World Championship.

Having no bet on Game 3 – only made 2 plays yesterday – a dime on Ohio State -16 vs Penn St. in Columbus – and then with a big lead at halftime took back a nickel on Penn St. -7 2^nd H for a middle shot. Got the bigger game bet but missed the middle thus netted $450. I have a friend who likes to say, “hedging is for landscapers” – but I’m a firm believer in taking off some risk or locking something up whenever you have a chance to do so – esp when you have a chance to not only reduce your risk but for some middle money as well

[BeatingBaseball]

The Series price is now of course strongly STL.
The 4 Units I have at +162.5 would today cost -240.
The dog price for Boston is now +200.

GAME 4 - Prior to the NLCS - because the Cardinals had the home field in that series - I talked a lot about Busch Stadium and the atmosphere there being almost as formidable an opponent as the RedBirds themselves. And once STL was able to come away with game 2 at Fenway - the home park dynamic in St. Louis immediately became a significant potential outcome determinant in this series as well.

With last night’s 5-4 win in game 3 - the Cardinals are now 60-28 at Busch Stadium in 2013 – that’s a .682 a home winning percentage. Apart from the less tangible aspects of the atmosphere there – you also have the physical layout of the park itself playing to the Cardinals’ advantage. Although some may see it as otherwise, New Busch is actually more a pitcher’s than a hitter’s ball park. It does not play small. And although the Cardinals and Red Sox are both strong offensive clubs – the Cardinals’ strong offense is one built specifically to play there. The Red Sox’ strong offense is not. When you couple that with Boston’s loss of the DH there – the Cardinals’ advantage on offense at Busch increases exponentially.

Just as the Cardinals had to regroup overnight and recover from their horrendous performance in the opener to win the critical game 2 at Fenway – the Red Sox now have to recover from a really tough and somewhat unorthodox loss in the bottom of the 9^th last night and try to win what is now a critical game 4. We’ll see – but I’m not at all confident they can do it. Although they’re an extremely talented club and they certainly have individuals who are as hard nosed and competitive as any in the game (read Pedroia, Peavy) – I just don’t see the Red Sox as collectively tough, resilient and gritty as the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals. There are times when team toughness is more valuable than team talent. And just as LAD found their excuse to lose with the injury to Hanley Ramirez – Boston and their fans may have found theirs last night – the umpires.

The Red Sox did not exhibit the killer instinct when they had a chance to virtually end the Series in the late innings of game 2. I think the Cardinals will exhibit exactly that with their chance to end it tonight. I say end it because I believe that if Boston fails to get this one – Wainwright will finish them off in game 5 - just like I said about Peavy last night – veteran winning pitchers do not commonly have consecutive bad outings - esp in October.

As to tonight, this one game doesn’t feature the big name headliners on the mound – at least on the STL side - but Lance Lynn is easy to under appreciate in the shadow of guys like Wainwright and the Cardinals great young arms like Wacha, Martinez and Rosenthal – but he’s only 26 himself – he was a solid 15 game winner this year - and probably more importantly he was 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA at Busch. And having been part of the Cards’ pitching staff since 2011 he already has a ton of playoff experience. When he takes the mound tonight it will be his 20^th post season appearance. He'll be rested, he's healthy and he'll be ready to go - this compared to Bucholz of the tired shoulder who has definitely been hurting. I think Farrell would be happy with 5 innings out of Bucholz tonight.

STL Series Play a Total 4 Units at +162.5 going in.
STL/Lynn Full Game 4 at Even Money for 2 Units
STL/Lynn Game 4 Run Line at +195 for 1 Unit
Taking Back 1 Unit Boston Series +200 hedge for 1 Unit.

[BeatingBaseball]

2 Men On - 2 Outs - 2 Strikes. And the worst pitch in baseball – the Sinker that doesn’t sink. Johnny Gomes didn’t miss it. A new Series.

Now for the Waino-Lester rematch.

And the Cardinals will need 1 more W at Fenway. Wacha-Wacha.

[NittanyLionsFan]

What do you think STL's % chance of winning series is going into game 5?

[BeatingBaseball]

We’re now looking at a 3 game Series with 2 at Fenway - but I think with Wainwright at home tonight and Wacha teed up for game 6 at Fenway that the Cards still have a slight edge.

I’d fair price STL for the Series right now at -108 - so that equates to a 52% chance of the RedBirds winning vs 48% for Boston. That will of course move further to STL if Wainwright gets the job done tonight - which I believe he will.

[No coincidences]

We’re now looking at a 3 game Series with 2 at Fenway - but I think with Wainwright at home tonight and Wacha teed up for game 6 at Fenway that the Cards still have a slight edge.

I’d fair price STL for the Series right now at -108 - so that equates to a 52% chance of the RedBirds winning vs 48% for Boston. That will of course move further to STL if Wainwright gets the job done tonight - which I believe he will.

Cards are +105 for the series at most books now, BB.

[BeatingBaseball]

I realize that, No. Just giving my take. I think there's a little STL value at +105.

[No coincidences]

I realize that, No. Just giving my take. I think there's a little STL value at +105.

I suppose they're right in line number-wise given the original series stance. No matter how we got here, it's 2-2 going into Game 5 -- which is technically where the series should be at this point.

[BeatingBaseball]

Wainwright at home is money.

Date	Away	Score	Home	Score	Result	Home Money Line	Away Money Line	Total	OU	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher
Oct 9, 2013	PIT	1	STL	6	W	-162	152	6.5	O	G Cole	A Wainwright
Oct 3, 2013	PIT	1	STL	9	W	-145	135	6.5	O	A Burnett	A Wainwright
Sep 28, 2013	CHC	2	STL	6	W	-200	185	7	O	E Jackson	A Wainwright
Sep 23, 2013	WSH	3	STL	4	W	-161	151	7	P	T Roark	A Wainwright
Sep 13, 2013	SEA	1	STL	2	W	-179	169	7	U	H Iwakuma	A Wainwright
Sep 7, 2013	PIT		STL	5	W	-160	150	7.5	U	J Locke	A Wainwright
Aug 28, 2013	CIN	10	STL		L	-137	127	7.5	O	H Bailey	A Wainwright
Aug 23, 2013	ATL	1	STL	3	W	-148	138	7	U	K Medlen	A Wainwright
Aug 13, 2013	PIT	3	STL	4	W	-170	160	7	P	C Morton	A Wainwright

[BeatingBaseball]

Jon Lester on the road is not always money. Boston is 6-12 his L18 road starts.

Date	Away	Score	Home	Score	Result	Home Money Line	Away Money Line	Total	OU	Away Pitcher	Home Pitcher
Oct 17, 2013	BOS	4	DET	3	W	-116	106	7	P	J Lester	A Sanchez
Sep 28, 2013	BOS	5	BAL	6	L	121	-131	8	O	J Lester	W Chen
Sep 8, 2013	BOS	3	NYY	4	L	-110	100	8.5	U	J Lester	H Kuroda
Aug 24, 2013	BOS	4	LA	2	W	-115	105	7	U	J Lester	H Ryu
Aug 19, 2013	BOS	7	SF		W	109	-119	7	P	J Lester	T Lincecum
Aug 14, 2013	BOS	3	TOR	4	L	133	-143	9.5	U	J Lester	E Rogers
Aug 8, 2013	BOS	1	KC	5	L	101	-111	7.5	U	J Lester	B Chen
Jul 28, 2013	BOS	5	BAL		W	107	-117	9	U	J Lester	J Hammel
Jul 13, 2013	BOS		OAK	3	L	-122	112	7.5	U	J Lester	A Griffin
Jul 8, 2013	BOS	4	SEA	11	L	-119	109	7	O	J Lester	Felix Hernandez
Jun 21, 2013	BOS	10	DET	6	W	-136	126	8.5	O	J Lester	D Fister
Jun 16, 2013	BOS	3	BAL	6	L	-113	103	9	P	J Lester	M Gonzalez
Jun 11, 2013	BOS	3	TB	8	L	105	-115	8	O	J Lester	F Carmona
May 31, 2013	BOS	1	NYY	4	L	-118	108	8	U	J Lester	C Sabathia
May 20, 2013	BOS	4	CHW	6	L	136	-146	9	O	J Lester	D Axelrod
May 15, 2013	BOS	9	TB	2	W	-125	115	7	O	J Lester	D Price
May 5, 2013	BOS	3	TEX	4	L	-162	152	7.5	U	J Lester	Y Darvish
Apr 30, 2013	BOS	7	TOR	9	L	102	-112	8.5	O	J Lester	B Morrow

[BeatingBaseball]

Game 5 - Since it's down to a 3 gm set with 2 at Fenway - the books are now chalking Boston for the Series at -120 (take even money STL).

The momentum is certainly with the Red Sox after last night - but I believe with Wainwright going at home tonight and Wacha teed up for game 6 in Boston that the Cards still have a slight edge to win the Series. As stated above, I would now price the Series at STL -108 (equates to a 52% win expectation for the Cards) as opposed to the current market's BOS -120 (implies a win expectation of 54.5% for the Red Sox). If I were coming in here cold I would still take STL series at the even money. If Wainwright wins tonight - and I believe he will - the Redbirds needing only one of two at Fenway will of course move to the chalk side once again.

As you would expect - history says tonight's winner will likely be World Champions.
Of the 59 teams that have gone up 3-2 after 5 games - 40 of them (.678) have won the Series.

STL/Wainwright Game 5 First Five at -128 for 1 Unit
STL/Wainwright Game 5 Full Game at -131 for 2 Units

Still have -
STL 4 Units Series plays at +162.5 for 4 Units
BOS 1 Unit Series play at +200 for 1 Unit

[JR007]

almost as old as you dude, I am 60, you know your stuff, I have read many of your posts, good luck tonight, biggest ml spread since Lester in game one (-122) and that game ended 8--1.....now Wainwright -128 lines up with your thinking, side note "under" ump going tonight

[BeatingBaseball]

Just added 1/2 Unit STL Game 5 Run Line at +178.

[BeatingBaseball]

Lester again gets the money. Another tip of the cap to him.

7 innings of great back door cutters to the RHers. He was locked in as is Ortiz w/ bat.

Grateful to push the 5 tonight. Have had worse days. Boston proved they are the better club right now.

Gomes turned the Series and they got the two on road when they had to. Going to
be tough for Birds to do the same. Will probably be following up with some play
on Wacha but likely hedging out of the Series plays if we get to 7. We’ll have to see what the numbers are.

Thanks to JR and all for the kind words and points.

[JR007]

you think riding Wacha, instead of hedging out tomorrow ??