But I'll share it. You assholes can rip it to shreds, but that's fine. If you notice I don't post much, don't need to validate myself with forum attaboys. It's about winning money, period. Because it's not much fun, takes away from family time, and there can be lots of anger and tilt in the beginning if you let losses get to you, and chase.
I play hoops and football only. I play only teams that benefit from signicant RLM, and I mean a good point at least, 1.5 to 2 is better. If the home team is benefitting, and the percentages on the road team are high and include a ML percentage on the road team of 94% or higher, then I play the home team 1h for 2 units. If the spread is 4 or less, I play 1 unit on the home money line as well.
If the road road team is benefitting from RLM, I wait for the 2h. I miss a lot of 1h bets this way that are winners, but there are too many losses on 1h road teams that are RLM PICKS. If the 2h line gives me a few points advantage over the OPENING line, then I watch the 2h lines very closely, like up to the last minute. If the line holds on the road team, or begins to lose value, I bet it 2 units.
I will do similar 2h plays on RLM unders, if the first half flies over. Again, I watch for the total to hold or go down. If it goes down, I play it for two units.
On RLM that favors NBA HOME teams, I play the 1q line for the home team. If they HOME team loses the 1h line, I will play them 2u on the 2h line if there is value to the OPENING line.
In the NFL, its trickier. I have no bet teams each year under any circumstance first half, no matter HOME much RLM benefits them. The Browns, and however played the Patriots were on that list. Otherwise, I played two units on the moneyline 1h line for homecteam RLM benefactors. If the ML PERCENTAGE favored the road team by over 94%, I put a unit on the ML for the home team if the spread was 5 or less. Road teams that benefitted from RLM, I waited until 2h, and watched the line to be sure it held until it was ready to expire, and made sure I was getting more points than the ORIGINAL line on the game.
Takes a lot of patience, research. I get my numbers from sportsbookspy and Vegas insider. I confirm there are no last minute steam changes on the public favorite as well, as many times sharpest players are baiting RLM players for better lines then pounding the closing numbers that are now in their favor. I look at every book on Vegas insider to be sure I've got RLM and the bet volume I need to make the moves significant.
So so I don't cap teams, I just try and side with the books and "smart" money. My goal is 60-65%. Some weeks work out phenomenally. Some opportunity for four team teasers exist across key numbers. Follow the money boys, it lies less often than your eyes.
just my 2c. I can tell you Lakerboy and I have similar picks, pretty sure he has a similar betting flavor. But I don't want attention, I just want to win money.