1. #71
    astro61200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    You're gonna get buried on everything. 100%.
    Won ATL spread, ATL/GB over, ATL/GB 3Q over, Pats spread, Pats alt spread today.

    I seem to have a pretty good grasp of what these two teams are. You can either follow me and win money, or stick with your flawed logic and opinions and lose it. Up to you. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't force him to drink. I'm giving you all the water possible, if you'd rather just die of thirst then so be it.

  2. #72
    odog11
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    Quote Originally Posted by astro61200 View Post
    Can't really disagree more. Falcons are the better team. Offense is leaps and bounds better. Defense is as good, if not better, than NE. NE is more balanced, yes, but that's more because the Falcon's offense is so good their defense can't really keep up. NE has a better coach, yes. Motivation? Get out of here with that garbage. It's the Super Bowl, there is plenty of motivation to go around.

    Oh, and before you say how the Patriots defense is good, it's mediocre at best. Sure, it looks good when the last 10 teams you've played are in the bottom half of offense. Now you'll probably say something about the Steelers, but Big Ben is awful on the road (seriously, look it up). Bell got hurt. The Steelers didn't even score a touchdown last week in their win (that was assisted anyway). That's why I was all over the Patriots on Sunday and predicted a blowout (well I termed it ass raping but same difference)

    I find it really hard to find a legit reason to take the Patriots. Everything about the Falcons is just better, and they're getting points (though I'll be on the ML). The public will be all over NE because they don't take 5 seconds to look up stats to see their defense is a fraud. They'll be talking about the Patriots for 2 weeks straight.

    It's a perfect storm. Falcons spread, Falcons ML, Falcons/Pats over. Take them all individually, win big. Parlay the over and ML to win even bigger.

    Time to get paid!
    Explain statistically how Atlanta is better? Record? Points differential? Even if you go to things like DVOA the Patriots are and have been the better team. What stats are you talking about? Just saying they are mediocre at best doesn't mean anything. They had the least points allowed this year and shut down the Steelers tonight, and don't give me the "Bell was injured" nonsense, they had him shut down and Steelers looked better with Williams in there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "motivation", but believe me, Patriots are the tougher, more experienced, better coached and will be the better prepared team. Falcons got lucky that a banged up and not that great to begin with Packers team were barely able to win last week after the Cowboys wet their legs.
    Last edited by odog11; 01-23-17 at 01:59 AM.

  3. #73
    astro61200
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    Quote Originally Posted by odog11 View Post
    Explain statistically how Atlanta is better? Record? Points differential? Even if you go to things like DVOA the Patriots are and have been the better team. What stats are you talking about? Just saying they are mediocre at best doesn't mean anything. They had the least points allowed this year and shut down the Steelers tonight, and don't give me the "Bell was injured" nonsense, they had him shut down and Steelers looked better with Williams in there. Maybe I shouldn't have said "motivation", but believe me, Patriots are the tougher, more experienced, better coached and will be the better prepared team. Falcons got lucky that a banged up and not that great to begin with Packers team were barely able to win last week after the Cowboys wet their legs.
    Their defensive numbers are a product of their extremely weak schedule over the past 3 months. I posted listing the rankings of the YPG by each team they faced since like Week 9.

    It seems the entire basis for claiming NE's defense is so good is they held the Steelers on Sunday. That overlooks how poor Roethlisberg is on the road, and how the Steelers couldn't even get into the endzone last week in KC.

    It's just amazing to me that 24 hours ago everyone was talking up how amazing the Packers are and how Rodgers is an unstoppable force, now you're telling me that the Falcons got lucky to face a "not that great to begin with" Packers team? However, you completely overlook the fact that Big Ben is garbage on the road and the Steelers.

    The Packers averaged 32+ points in their 8 game winning streak. Yet they are "not that great to begin with"? You talk up the Patriots defense based off garbage teams (offensively) and then the Steelers. Yet the Steelers only scored more than 32 points (ya know, what the Packers averaged for half the year) in 2 of their 18 games this year. Steelers scored 17 today, Packers scored 21.

    Seems to me like it's selective bias. Personally, if I didn't bet on this I could careless who wins. No bias at all. The Falcons, on paper, are the better team. The Falcons also look better, to me anyway, as well.

    If you want to take the Patriots, that's fine. Go for it, I wish you luck. I'll have the most money on the over, so there is a chance we can both win money. I just believe the Patriots are overrated here and they won't be able to stop the Falcons' offense.
    Points Awarded:

    Cuse0323 gave astro61200 4 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #74
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    I'm with the books. ATL ml. Why ask? Don't you just bet the public side on every game? You took GB today right,?

    I ask because fading you this year would have made someone a mint.

    Yea I took GB, and Pats -5.5. I honestly don't look at who the public is on anymore because I think it's a waste of time.

    I am up this football season, laker. 18 units. Although I admit I have been betting 2-5 units a play since mid December. But only 2 plays per wk on avg.

  5. #75
    Wargasm
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    I'm with you on this Astro. You're going against the same people who thought the Patriots are the better team in both Pats/Giants SB. ATL ML all the way.

  6. #76
    Cuse0323
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    Adding more to Falcons ML.


  7. #77
    pologq
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    i believe they want public on falcons looking like easy underdog money. take the pats.

  8. #78
    Plopowitz
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    Pats

    When was the last super bowl that wasn't won by the better defensive team ?? May have to go back to a Peyton SB win.

  9. #79
    Bostongambler
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    Pats secondary is heads and heels above the dismantled GB team. Don't think Atl will be able to move the ball like they did yesterday. They are talented so I'll give them that, but I'll take Bill and his two week perpetration.

  10. #80
    El Nino
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    As Cowherd said today, an offensively explosive NFC South team, having an outlier season against a historic franchise with a Mount Rushmore QB. Sounds a lot like '98 and last year. Pats have 2 weeks to prepare. Watch Dion Lewis or Amendola have a monster game. Take the better defense in the Super Bowl. Pats -3 easy here. Atlanta is a public darling.

  11. #81
    Philmill
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    Ridin with the Pats til they loose or dont cover.......thank yourself later....

  12. #82
    Goat Milk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plopowitz View Post
    Pats

    When was the last super bowl that wasn't won by the better defensive team ?? May have to go back to a Peyton SB win.
    Brady against Seattle
    Rodgers against the Steelers (arguable)
    Saints vs Colts
    Colts vs. Bears
    Ravens 49ers -- 49ers d definitely better that year

    But yeah I think New England D will rattle Matt Ryan.

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