[MMANick]

Just gonna post a few plays that I like and am considering. Looking for some feedback and some discussion. Let's put our brains together!

Paige VanZant -115: She opened as a -170 favorite and the price has dropped significantly. She's going up against "The Karate Hottie". I think PVZ's aggressive style and the pace she sets will overwhelm Michelle here. The fight may be close in the first two rounds, but PVZ will completely take over the second half of the fight. I think this is just a real bad matchup for the natural atomweight. PVZ by decision or late TKO stoppage.

Mickey Gall -145: I think this line will get tighter come fight time with the popularity of Sage. There is no denying Sage is talented and in great physical shape, but I've been so unimpressed by his fights in the UFC thus far. He'll have the striking advantage over Mickey, but I think this fight will get to the ground and when it does Gall will be able to control Sage and most likely submit him. Sage begins to fade after the first half of the fight as well. Gall by submission.

Mike Perry -140: This fight will be a blast for however long it lasts. Both guys bring it every fight and swing for the fences. I think Perry has more power than Jouban and his chin is phenomenal. I've seen Jouban rocked multiple times and that is a recipe for disaster versus a guy like Perry. Perry by TKO/KO, -140 isn't too steep, but if it gets higher, I'll be looking at the Inside the distance prop.

Fredy Serrano +100: This line opened with Fredy being a -170 favorite and has since dropped with him now being the underdog. I think his wrestling will be too much for Sandoval to handle. The striking may be close, but I think Sandoval will be taken down in every single round here. Serrano by decision.

Here's a couple parlay pieces:

Eddie Wineland -220: I think he'll make another run into the top 10. Mizugaki is fading and Eddie has strange but effective movement and great TD defense. I like Eddie to win relatively easy here. Nice parlay piece or possibly worthy of a -3.5 points play. Eddie by decision.

Irene Aldana -265: She's a talented prospect with terrific striking. Smith is basically a punching bag as opponents have outlanded her by more than 3 strikes per minute. That is a recipe for disaster against Aldana. Aldana makes for a great parlay piece. Aldana by late TKO or decision.

Luis Henrique da Silva -230: He has the far better striking here. If Craig has any shot here, he's gotta try and get this fight to the mat and I just don't see that happening. Da Silva by TKO.

Colby Covington -370: He's a way better wrestler than Barbarena and will have a significant strength advantage. He's also the superior athlete here. Look for the -3.5 prop or possibly the Insidethe distance prop if this is too much juice for you in a parlay. Covington by Submission.

I like a few more plays here, but I'll leave this here for now. Thoughts? Discussion?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just gonna post a few plays that I like and am considering. Looking for some feedback and some discussion. Let's put our brains together!

Paige VanZant -115: She opened as a -170 favorite and the price has dropped significantly. She's going up against "The Karate Hottie". I think PVZ's aggressive style and the pace she sets will overwhelm Michelle here. The fight may be close in the first two rounds, but PVZ will completely take over the second half of the fight. I think this is just a real bad matchup for the natural atomweight. PVZ by decision or late TKO stoppage.

Mickey Gall -145: I think this line will get tighter come fight time with the popularity of Sage. There is no denying Sage is talented and in great physical shape, but I've been so unimpressed by his fights in the UFC thus far. He'll have the striking advantage over Mickey, but I think this fight will get to the ground and when it does Gall will be able to control Sage and most likely submit him. Sage begins to fade after the first half of the fight as well. Gall by submission.

Mike Perry -140: This fight will be a blast for however long it lasts. Both guys bring it every fight and swing for the fences. I think Perry has more power than Jouban and his chin is phenomenal. I've seen Jouban rocked multiple times and that is a recipe for disaster versus a guy like Perry. Perry by TKO/KO, -140 isn't too steep, but if it gets higher, I'll be looking at the Inside the distance prop.

Fredy Serrano +100: This line opened with Fredy being a -170 favorite and has since dropped with him now being the underdog. I think his wrestling will be too much for Sandoval to handle. The striking may be close, but I think Sandoval will be taken down in every single round here. Serrano by decision.

Here's a couple parlay pieces:

Eddie Wineland -220: I think he'll make another run into the top 10. Mizugaki is fading and Eddie has strange but effective movement and great TD defense. I like Eddie to win relatively easy here. Nice parlay piece or possibly worthy of a -3.5 points play. Eddie by decision.

Irene Aldana -265: She's a talented prospect with terrific striking. Smith is basically a punching bag as opponents have outlanded her by more than 3 strikes per minute. That is a recipe for disaster against Aldana. Aldana makes for a great parlay piece. Aldana by late TKO or decision.

Luis Henrique da Silva -230: He has the far better striking here. If Craig has any shot here, he's gotta try and get this fight to the mat and I just don't see that happening. Da Silva by TKO.

Colby Covington -370: He's a way better wrestler than Barbarena and will have a significant strength advantage. He's also the superior athlete here. Look for the -3.5 prop or possibly the Insidethe distance prop if this is too much juice for you in a parlay. Covington by Submission.

I like a few more plays here, but I'll leave this here for now. Thoughts? Discussion?

I like a lot of these even though they're almost all favorites. Should be able to sniff out some good props here as well.

[BIGDAY]

Just pound the Fuk outa Wineland and count your money.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You called him to beat Saenz if I remember correctly

[MMANick]

I usually look at the cards in advance before the odds are even out and I did that here as well. I was hoping to maybe get Perry as a slight dog and possibly Gall. I could see the odds shifting a bit and making those two close to even money. I never imagined I'd get Serrano at even money or PVZ at -115.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I usually look at the cards in advance before the odds are even out and I did that here as well. I was hoping to maybe get Perry as a slight dog and possibly Gall. I could see the odds shifting a bit and making those two close to even money. I never imagined I'd get Serrano at even money or PVZ at -115.

Yeah definitely like VanZant at this price. I think Perry/Jouban and Gall/Northcutt are toss-ups but I slightly lean towards the current favorites.

[MMANick]

Just pound the Fuk outa Wineland and count your money.

I'm looking at a Wineland and Aldana parlay, I think. I have them pegged as even bigger favorites than they are now.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I like Covington a lot as a fighter and have made $$$ betting him by R3 finish in his last two fights but Barberena is a prospect killer. Honestly might have to take him for a small play at these odds.

[MMANick]

Yeah definitely like VanZant at this price. I think Perry/Jouban and Gall/Northcutt are toss-ups but I slightly lean towards the current favorites.

Love the Perry by TKO/KO prop here. I'd love it as FOTN as well, but it may not make it out of the first round... Shit maybe not even the first minute lol

[MMANick]

I like Covington a lot as a fighter and have made $$$ betting him by R3 finish in his last two fights but Barberena is a prospect killer. Honestly might have to take him for a small play at these odds.

You'll have tons of company, but I just can't pull the trigger. Covington is a different animal than Sage and Alves. He has good enough cardio to note fade and is such a strong guy.

[Kermit]

Waterson hasn't fought in almost 1 1/2 years since injuring her knee and is 8 years older. PVZ is coming off of a nice head kick win. I'll take PVZ all day at those near pick-em odds.

[MMANick]

Waterson hasn't fought in almost 1 1/2 years since injuring her knee and is 8 years older. PVZ is coming off of a nice head kick win. I'll take PVZ all day at those near pick-em odds.

Right? And I love Karate Hottie. I already put bets down on PVZ and Serrano.

[bjpenn85]

I agree with a lot your points. I thought Van Zant would have some issue to begin with, and then probably win late. I dont like her striking, so thats a cause for concern.

Regardless of how much you like a fighter, you cant bet a guy totally unproven for the f price of -145. Gall by sub is the only relevant play. Agreed.

Aldana should win, but she has fought terrible competition lately. Just terrible competition. I dont understand why a lot of these women try to fight with 0 athletic qualities. But the price on Aldana is bad, therefor im not even including her in a parlay.

Hate winelands chin, i will likely pass , even though i probably shouldnt.

Im on Da silva as well, only small, in a parlay. Faced better competition, is clearly the better fighter. But gets hit, gets taken down in all his of his fights. Fight doesnt go to a dec is more or less a lock here.

[MMANick]

I agree with a lot your points. I thought Van Zant would have some issue to begin with, and then probably win late. I dont like her striking, so thats a cause for concern.

Regardless of how much you like a fighter, you cant bet a guy totally unproven for the f price of -145. Gall by sub is the only relevant play. Agreed.

Aldana should win, but she has fought terrible competition lately. Just terrible competition. I dont understand why a lot of these women try to fight with 0 athletic qualities. But the price on Aldana is bad, therefor im not even including her in a parlay.

Hate winelands chin, i will likely pass , even though i probably shouldnt.

Im on Da silva as well, only small, in a parlay. Faced better competition, is clearly the better fighter. But gets hit, gets taken down in all his of his fights. Fight doesnt go to a dec is more or less a lock here.

Seems like we see these fights going the same way. I feel like Mizugaki won't be able to hurt Eddie even if he catches him flush. I get where you're coming from on Aldana, but I think Leslie is just horrible.

[PaperTrail07]

Gall will destroy Northcutt....absolute insanity you think NC has the striking advantage lol....gall ends up over -200.....the NC hype is done and he will get TKO'd....Mike Perry has also not faced anyone with the Striking skills of Jouban.....his others fights were sloths in comparison of speed.....Jouban by Decision or TKO.....IMO....Jouban=Battle Tested....

[PaperTrail07]

Covington has the skill and speed advantage and SHOULD be able to get a lay and pray.....Barb is a tough cookie tho...Always a Dog and ALWAYS brings it....think this is A TERRIBLE matchup for him however.....Covington is too smart to fight a BB type of fight IMO...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gall will destroy Northcutt....absolute insanity you think NC has the striking advantage lol....gall ends up over -200.....the NC hype is done and he will get TKO'd....Mike Perry has also not faced anyone with the Striking skills of Jouban.....his others fights were sloths in comparison of speed.....Jouban by Decision or TKO.....IMO....Jouban=Battle Tested....

Yeah Jouban really should be 7-1 in the UFC. The decision loss to Alves was a complete robbery (1/15 media members scored the fight for Alves)

[MMANick]

Gall will destroy Northcutt....absolute insanity you think NC has the striking advantage lol....gall ends up over -200.....the NC hype is done and he will get TKO'd....Mike Perry has also not faced anyone with the Striking skills of Jouban.....his others fights were sloths in comparison of speed.....Jouban by Decision or TKO.....IMO....Jouban=Battle Tested....

What striking has Mickey showed us again? And the only win that Jouban has that impressed me was the Belal Muhammad. I don't consider Dwyer, Walsh, or O'Reilly impressive wins. Even the Muhammad win wasnt huge for me as Belal is small for the weight class. He's been rocked a ton of times in his fights and Perry hit's hard as hell and has a chin to trade. I'll take wins over Roberts and Lim over what Jouban has done.

[PaperTrail07]

If people knew what Gall's skill set really was he would be -300....there is not enough info or tape for it.....NC name and the fact it was CM punk last time are keeping the line tight IMO...."ill take a chance on Sage at 2:1"...have fun....lol... as for Jouban...Like Hugo said....essentially 1 loss to a KNOWN AMAZING striker with a parallel skills set...he nullified Jouban 100%....Jouban will have the space to close when he wants and dance when he wants.....I think its a perfect fight for Jouban.....Perry has a punchers chance...that's it...

[PaperTrail07]

You can NEVER count a guy like Mike Perry out of a fight as long as he is still breathing lol BUT I think he is lacking in the skills department here....

[MMANick]

I don't think Sage wins this, so even at 2:1 I'm not taking him. I think Sage is overrated, which is completely the UFC's fault. We'll see with Perry vs Jouban, it'll be fun however long it lasts!

[PaperTrail07]

Totally Agree....And GL on the card....Hopefully we see another Swanson Vs Choi!......Has the potential@!....

I don't think Sage wins this, so even at 2:1 I'm not taking him. I think Sage is overrated, which is completely the UFC's fault. We'll see with Perry vs Jouban, it'll be fun however long it lasts!