1. 08-31-16 07:07 AM #1
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    MLB - Wednesday, 8/31/16

    4 MLB Plays Wednesday

    White Sox +116 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 379-390-20, -0.85
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 08-31-16 07:16 AM #2
    Nateboogy
    Nateboogy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-13-14
    Posts: 167
    Betpoints: 6277

    I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 08-31-16 07:17 AM #3
    JJJ
    JJJ's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-03-11
    Posts: 2,610
    Betpoints: 704

    surprised no play on the rays today
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 08-31-16 07:31 AM #4
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,622
    Betpoints: 10352

    Cleveland -311
    Washington -201
    Dodgers -180 (Stripling)
    Houston -185
    Angels -160
    Tampa -155

    I have a pretty ridiculous line disparity on boston/tampa so expect that line to move significantly....
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 08-31-16 08:07 AM #5
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    What's you model got on Seattle?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 08-31-16 09:02 AM #6
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    I see under 8 even Indians. Playable or wait?
    Actually no, the 8.5 was key there. I get 7.5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 08-31-16 09:05 AM #7
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    surprised no play on the rays today
    Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 08-31-16 09:07 AM #8
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    What's you model got on Seattle?
    Seattle 57% (-133)

    I hate the suspiciously low line and I hate the movement even more.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 08-31-16 09:11 AM #9
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    60%ers:

    Houston 68% (-213)
    San Francisco 63% (-170)
    Washington 63% (-170)
    Angels 62% (-163)
    Cleveland 77% (-335)
    Cubs 64% (-178)
    Dodgers 65% (-186) (Game #2 - Hill vs. Hoffman)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 08-31-16 09:25 AM #10
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,622
    Betpoints: 10352

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Rays are on my radar, but like trobin31 I also get a big disparity and I hate large variance. I only get Boston 55% (-122)!
    Yeah i think I found the reason and might have a lot to do with the umpire ?!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 08-31-16 09:49 AM #11
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 08-31-16 10:06 AM #12
    mikefan1034
    mikefan1034's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-29-12
    Posts: 2,448
    Betpoints: 1233

    91 units last year tells me it was a fluke
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 08-31-16 10:29 AM #13
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 08-31-16 10:39 AM #14
    trobin31
    trobin31's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-09-14
    Posts: 9,622
    Betpoints: 10352

    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    For me it is simply Smyly having good peripherals relative to his mediocre surface stats and Wright being the polar opposite.
    I have lots of trouble with predictability of knuckle ballers due to their inherently low strikeout to walk ratios.

    ONE thing I've played around with is changing the coefficients for hard contact, swinging strikes and WPA to make up for this along with other low strike out type pitchers like Marco Estrada, Colby Lewis etc but having mixed results.

    Just seems like no matter how well a knuckler pitches there is gonna be a higher than avg amount of walks driving their perioherals out of whack even though his stuff might be unhittable.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 08-31-16 10:40 AM #15
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    What u got on total Oakland Houston I got 10.5...agree with Mariners line although I feel books and most giving Texas a lot of respect hence low line
    We are not close, I get 7.6 in Houston. And I see RLM with 67% on Seattle.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 08-31-16 11:07 AM #16
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    1 MLB Addition

    5 MLB Plays Wednesday

    White Sox +116 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Mets-119 (Heritage)
    Marlins / Mets UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Twins / Indians UNDER 8.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 08-31-16 11:17 AM #17
    pilebuck13
    pilebuck13's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-15-15
    Posts: 17,889
    Betpoints: 1717

    Thanks T
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 08-31-16 12:20 PM #18
    Rich Boy
    Rich Boy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-09
    Posts: 9,713
    Betpoints: 1106

    What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 08-31-16 12:38 PM #19
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Boy View Post
    What are you getting on Stl, KC, and Atl MLs?
    St. Louis 57% (-133)
    Kansas City 54% (-117)
    Atlanta 59% (-144)
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 08-31-16 02:45 PM #20
    LT Profits
    LT Profits's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-06
    Posts: 90,963
    Betpoints: 5179

    NO ACTION on Mets and Mets UNDER due to pitching change, now down to 3 plays.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 09-01-16 04:44 AM #21
    GreatWallofTrump
    GreatWallofTrump's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-16
    Posts: 727
    Betpoints: 758

    If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 09-01-16 04:46 AM #22
    Lily Blackwell
    Lily Blackwell's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-25-16
    Posts: 105
    Betpoints: 34

    Quote Originally Posted by GreatWallofTrump View Post
    If you played all your 60% ers you would be up. All won today.
    "You would be up" you can say that about anything.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 09-01-16 09:17 AM #23
    GreatWallofTrump
    GreatWallofTrump's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-16
    Posts: 727
    Betpoints: 758

    Quote Originally Posted by Lily Blackwell View Post
    "You would be up" you can say that about anything.
    Lt is "not up" he keeps playing "value" games that his model calculates - But he stays away from heavy favs. His 60% group are the heavy favs and he stays away from them most of the time.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | Baseball Betting | Next Thread »