1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    Estimating NFL Wins Bets

    A few weeks ago I posted some NFL odds:

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...mmer-odds.html

    Included were estimated point ranges for NFL teams. In my opinion this was a great tool to help predict NFL wins for the season.

    So I ran a regression to figure out the formula between points scored and number of wins for the last three seasons. The formula was about 60% predictive. Ideally you want this as high as possible, but that would include adding many more stats and estimating quite a few categories will introduce their own errors, so I went with this for now.

    Pittsburgh and NE weren't evaluated since their bets were not listed in my book.

    So using the under # points and over # points listed in the above thread for each team, plugging it into my regression formula, I came up with an over # and and under #, which I also have the bookies odds for as well

    If a team was listed at say 7 wins, and my estimations came out at 6 and 8, I did not evaluate the bet. Those teams are: Atl, Bal, Buf, Jax, LA, Mia, NO, NYJ, Was

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    Last edited by a4u2fear; 08-06-16 at 01:59 PM.

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    a4u2fear
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    I will post more later, the greater than symbol kept screwing up my posts.

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