1. 08-05-16 06:50 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Friday, 8/5/16

    5 MLB Plays Friday

    Giants +131(5 Dimes)
    Yankees -104 (Heritage)
    Mets +109 (Heritage)
    Marlins -106 (Bookmaker)
    Dodgers -112 (Heritage)


    YTD: 318-336-15, -10.16
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  2. 08-05-16 06:56 AM #2
    Kramerico
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    Big card tonight, gl sir.
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  3. 08-05-16 07:00 AM #3
    44 Mag
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    LT, how about a little feedback on the Cinn game tonight???
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  4. 08-05-16 07:12 AM #4
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    LT, how about a little feedback on the Cinn game tonight???
    Pittsburgh is a 60%er. Taillon rates above average (by about 5%), DeSclafini is a tad below average by about 3%, Pirates with a big edge in offense especially when looking at H/A and a decent edge in bullpen.
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  5. 08-05-16 07:16 AM #5
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Pittsburgh 62% (-163)
    Houston 66% (-194)
    St. Louis 72% (-257)
    Cubs 65% (-186)
    Seattle 65% (-186)
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  6. 08-05-16 07:16 AM #6
    Rich Boy
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    GL today LT
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  7. 08-05-16 07:17 AM #7
    GreatWallofTrump
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    Cin is a bad road team.
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  8. 08-05-16 07:24 AM #8
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Pittsburgh is a 60%er. Taillon rates above average (by about 5%), DeSclafini is a tad below average by about 3%, Pirates with a big edge in offense especially when looking at H/A and a decent edge in bullpen.
    Thanks Boss .
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  9. 08-05-16 07:33 AM #9
    Antibet
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Pittsburgh is a 60%er.

    And all sheep in this thread are 999ers
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  10. 08-05-16 08:51 AM #10
    Stackzilla
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    Anyone got any insight on why Hou is a fav vs Texas? I think Keuchel's gonna get shelled Tex .302 team avg vs him and Hou bullpen blows games all the time. Perez is on fire the most he's pitched was 107 in 7in recently he's stayed under 90 going 5-7. Thanks ahead of time.
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  11. 08-05-16 08:58 AM #11
    exlusive123
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    I have a big play on Houst fwiw
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  12. 08-05-16 08:58 AM #12
    Stackzilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by GreatWallofTrump View Post
    Cin is a bad road team.
    Yea that is true but they've beaten Chicago, Texas, and San Fran when DeSclafani pitches those are some of the toughest stadiums to play. Their loses (edit) when he pitches are by 1 run and the loses are no decisions.
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  13. 08-05-16 08:58 AM #13
    HeeluvaGuy
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    What is driving the Marlins play? I get that de la Rosa is awful (especially at home), but Phelps is making his first start of the season and (I've read) is on a pitch count (70-75 pitches). In his previous two starts at Coors he allowed 11 runs on 9.2 innings pitched. Game seems like a coin flip to me with a lot of runs likely being scored. Are you using Phelps' numbers as a reliever for this one?
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  14. 08-05-16 09:06 AM #14
    Stackzilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by exlusive123 View Post
    I have a big play on Houst fwiw
    Yea but why? Screw it I'm getting +150 on Tex. With you on Mia LT bol today got it +101 before u posted
    Last edited by Stackzilla; 08-05-16 at 09:18 AM.
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  15. 08-05-16 10:06 AM #15
    Waterstpub87
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    No totals today LT? I am surprised you are not the padres, as we often have similar plays. I got padres yesterday at 111.
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  16. 08-05-16 10:47 AM #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stackzilla View Post
    Anyone got any insight on why Hou is a fav vs Texas? I think Keuchel's gonna get shelled Tex .302 team avg vs him and Hou bullpen blows games all the time. Perez is on fire the most he's pitched was 107 in 7in recently he's stayed under 90 going 5-7. Thanks ahead of time.
    Of course Houston is going to be favored at home, and as you see, I actually have them undervalued at 66% (-194). This looks like a pitching mismatch, Keuchel had come around nicely before the one bad start in Detroit (which can happen to anyone), his 3.62 xFIP is more than a run lower than his ERA. Perez is a prime fade the rest of the year and his regression had begun before catching a slumping Royals team at home.
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  17. 08-05-16 10:53 AM #17
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    What is driving the Marlins play? I get that de la Rosa is awful (especially at home), but Phelps is making his first start of the season and (I've read) is on a pitch count (70-75 pitches). In his previous two starts at Coors he allowed 11 runs on 9.2 innings pitched. Game seems like a coin flip to me with a lot of runs likely being scored. Are you using Phelps' numbers as a reliever for this one?
    Phelps has plenty experience as a starter and his historical numbers are incorporated in until he has like 5 starts. He is averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings out of the pen, the 75-pitch limit could be a minor blessing as he may not need to pace himself too much. And although both bullpens are below average, Miami grades out slightly better.
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  18. 08-05-16 10:57 AM #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    No totals today LT? I am surprised you are not the padres, as we often have similar plays. I got padres yesterday at 111.
    The day is young. And model likes Phillies over Padres at 54% (-117), which is more of an indictment of Friedrich.
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  19. 08-05-16 11:08 AM #19
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Phelps has plenty experience as a starter and his historical numbers are incorporated in until he has like 5 starts. He is averaging more than 11 strikeouts per nine innings out of the pen, the 75-pitch limit could be a minor blessing as he may not need to pace himself too much. And although both bullpens are below average, Miami grades out slightly better.
    Interesting article on his move from the pen: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/8/4/...ikeouts-whiffs

    I like the over here. No opinion on the side. Was just curious what your reasoning was. What total do you have for this one?
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  20. 08-05-16 11:10 AM #20
    Stackzilla
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    thanks for the reply and the info LT , there's just too many factors for me to not play Texas outside of what I mentioned. BOL
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  21. 08-05-16 11:30 AM #21
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Interesting article on his move from the pen: http://www.fishstripes.com/2016/8/4/...ikeouts-whiffs

    I like the over here. No opinion on the side. Was just curious what your reasoning was. What total do you have for this one?
    11.3, too close for me.
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  22. 08-05-16 11:34 AM #22
    rollie_t651
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    Good luck LT
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  23. 08-05-16 11:35 AM #23
    LT Profits
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    1 MLB Addition

    6 MLB Plays Friday

    Giants +131(5 Dimes)
    Yankees -104 (Heritage)
    Mets +109 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Astros UNDER 8.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
    Marlins -106 (Bookmaker)
    Dodgers -112 (Heritage)
    Last edited by LT Profits; 08-05-16 at 11:42 AM. Reason: Added Astros Under was at 5 Dimes
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  24. 08-05-16 11:35 AM #24
    kdcasady
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    Thoughts on tigers under 7.5?
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  25. 08-05-16 11:44 AM #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by kdcasady View Post
    Thoughts on tigers under 7.5?
    Certainly lean that way at 6.6, but I don't like the RLM.
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  26. 08-05-16 12:32 PM #26
    funnyb25
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    Is this still the same Martin Perez guy you rated one of the worst in the majors? Do you just see this being 7-1 astros?
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  27. 08-05-16 01:05 PM #27
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Is this still the same Martin Perez guy you rated one of the worst in the majors? Do you just see this being 7-1 astros?
    Yes. And 5-2 will do.
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  28. 08-05-16 01:05 PM #28
    getlucky2win
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    What sites do you look at for Rlm
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  29. 08-05-16 01:08 PM #29
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes. And 5-2 will do.
    RL not enough value for you? You obviously see this being a comfortable Astros win..
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  30. 08-05-16 01:19 PM #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by getlucky2win View Post
    What sites do you look at for Rlm
    Sports Options
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  31. 08-05-16 01:21 PM #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    RL not enough value for you?
    No. I almost never play home team run lines at less than +150ish
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  32. 08-05-16 01:22 PM #32
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    No. I almost never play home team run lines at less than +150ish
    Ya, losing that half inning bothers me too...BOL today
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  33. 08-05-16 02:12 PM #33
    kdcasady
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    Is there a reason you stay away from team totals? Seems to be good value there at times
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  34. 08-05-16 02:17 PM #34
    LT Profits
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    Another MLB Addition

    7 MLB Plays Friday

    Reds / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Giants +131(5 Dimes)
    Yankees -104 (Heritage)
    Mets +109 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Astros UNDER 8.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
    Marlins -106 (Bookmaker)
    Dodgers -112 (Heritage)
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  35. 08-05-16 02:28 PM #35
    RavensFan2k3
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    I played Miami before I saw you were on it but I'm no so confident in it. How do you rate both starting pitchers?

    Also how do you rate Redsox starter and Dodgers starter
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