1. 08-03-16 12:49 PM #36
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    I remember in nba last season he racked off like 20 losing unders in a row then tweaked model and games started staying under after that
    Finished +9 units in NBA, so overcame that weird abnormality of exceptionally high scoring games immediately after the All-Star break.
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  2. 08-03-16 12:54 PM #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by ufcfan2016 View Post
    THAT TAMPA BAYS LOOKS OFF
    Volquez terrible on the road, Odorizzi quiets having solid year for shitty team. Besides, not as if the model line is that much higher than real current line, I did good catching the -127.
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  3. 08-03-16 01:02 PM #38
    JJJ
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Means nothing, stop being short-sighted
    Short sighted???? After 600 plays
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  4. 08-03-16 01:05 PM #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Besides the under ump, what's the theory on the STL/CIN under?
    Model is always partial to pitchers with good K/BB ratios, which both starters have. Wacha has slightly outpitched his frontline stats with a 3.96 xFIP vs. 4.38 ERA, but variance for Reed is more severe with 3.85 xFIP vs. 7.07 ERA. And you are right about Scott Barry, I rate him at 95.5 (i.e., suppresses runs by 4.5% with 100 being neutral).
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  5. 08-03-16 01:05 PM #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    Short sighted???? After 600 plays
    +79 units last 1900 plays, which is more relevant?
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  6. 08-03-16 01:17 PM #41
    LT Profits
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    According to an outside source, here are my BTCL rates. I am pretty sure these rates are even better than this in reality because oftentimes the lines on the plays entered at that site are not as good as the lines I got in real life (i.e., the lines posted on SBR).

    All-Time MLB: 60.64%
    2015 MLB: 60.68%
    2016 MLB: 59.85%

    So drop-off from last year as stated is less than 1%.
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  7. 08-03-16 01:21 PM #42
    mohye1980
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    According to an outside source, here are my BTCL rates. I am pretty sure these rates are even better than this in reality because oftentimes the lines on the plays entered at that site are not as good as the lines I got in real life (i.e., the lines posted on SBR).

    All-Time MLB: 60.64%
    2015 MLB: 60.68%
    2016 MLB: 59.85%

    So drop-off from last year as stated is less than 1%.
    you would be rich if we were playing the beat the closing line game. Too bad that's not how it works.
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  8. 08-03-16 01:27 PM #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by mohye1980 View Post
    you would be rich if we were playing the beat the closing line game. Too bad that's not how it works.
    Worked out great last year!

    And let's face it, still +52 units across all sports since the beginning of last baseball season. So it is not as if I am poor, I just have to withstand this MLB blip. And bottom line, we are talking about -14 units, which is actually close to even through 600 plays once you account for vig. No excuse though, I still intend on being up at end of this season.
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  9. 08-03-16 01:31 PM #44
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Worked out great last year!

    And let's face it, still +52 units across all sports since the beginning of last baseball season. So it is not as if I am poor, I just have to withstand this MLB blip. And bottom line, we are talking about -14 units, which is actually close to even through 600 plays once you account for vig. No excuse though, I still intend on being up at end of this season.
    Would hope so...you have guaranteed you would finish in the black at seasons end like 20 times...gotta follow through on guarantees...learned that growing up as a child
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  10. 08-03-16 02:03 PM #45
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    Another MLB Addition

    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Brewers / Padres UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Giants / Phillies UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Orioles -106 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Orioles UNDER 8.5 -104 (5 Dimes)
    Cardinals / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Bookmaker)
    Rays -127 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8 -120 (5 Dimes)
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  11. 08-03-16 03:05 PM #46
    funnyb25
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    Oh lordy...padres...
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  12. 08-03-16 03:07 PM #47
    mikefan1034
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    0-1 already under dead
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  13. 08-03-16 03:24 PM #48
    Ralphie1412
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    LT quit responding to these losers. Mikes fan is a joke.
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  14. 08-03-16 03:28 PM #49
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    NO ACTION on Phillies Under due to pitching change.
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  15. 08-03-16 04:45 PM #50
    funnyb25
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    Love the padres
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  16. 08-03-16 04:45 PM #51
    JJJ
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    4-15 last 19 plays I believe
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  17. 08-03-16 04:45 PM #52
    mikefan1034
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    Like I said 0-1
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  18. 08-03-16 04:46 PM #53
    mikefan1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    4-15 last 19 plays I believe
    And it's not like it's bad luck either just a sign that he doesn't know baseball or watch the games. This doesn't happen if u watch the games and know what's going on
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  19. 08-03-16 04:49 PM #54
    jeffjam_
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    According to an outside source, here are my BTCL rates. I am pretty sure these rates are even better than this in reality because oftentimes the lines on the plays entered at that site are not as good as the lines I got in real life (i.e., the lines posted on SBR).

    All-Time MLB: 60.64%
    2015 MLB: 60.68%
    2016 MLB: 59.85%

    So drop-off from last year as stated is less than 1%.
    What does the percentage mean? The percentage of plays that moved towards your number?
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  20. 08-03-16 04:56 PM #55
    auzabets
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    Chosen these for today
    Cleveland Indians - Minnesota Twins over 9
    St. Louis Cardinals win

    GL all!
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  21. 08-03-16 05:07 PM #56
    funnyb25
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    Need 5 more additions
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  22. 08-03-16 05:08 PM #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeffjam_ View Post
    What does the percentage mean? The percentage of plays that moved towards your number?
    Yes, percentage of times I beat the closing number (BTCL). As I said though, I am pretty sure the rates are higher in reality. But nonetheless, seeing the similarity between last year and this year is very encouraging.
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  23. 08-03-16 05:08 PM #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Need 5 more additions
    Sorry just one.
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  24. 08-03-16 05:08 PM #59
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    1 MLB 5-Inning Addition

    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Brewers / Padres UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
    Orioles -106 (Heritage)
    Orioles +100 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Rangers / Orioles UNDER 8.5 -104 (5 Dimes)
    Cardinals / Reds UNDER 9 -105 (Bookmaker)
    Rays -127 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays / Astros UNDER 8 -120 (5 Dimes)
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  25. 08-03-16 05:10 PM #60
    Rich Boy
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    LT what is going on here man?

    How can you explain this bad run of luck?

    How did you piss of the gambling gods?
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  26. 08-03-16 05:14 PM #61
    funnyb25
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    Lol...this is the same thing that happened after the break in NBA. Everything went over. He is doing the same thing in baseball, playing unders when everything is going over. Never adjusted then, and still hasn't now. It's sad. Good guy, slow learner, very stubborn. Probably the most stubborn poster of all time
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  27. 08-03-16 05:17 PM #62
    Slanina
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    LT, out of curiousity, what are the adds? Do you just run the system throughout the day and if anything pops, you nail it? Or is there something else to it.
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  28. 08-03-16 05:18 PM #63
    funnyb25
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    Double wager on 2-8 gausman over 12-2 hamels? I'm lost. Gl LT
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  29. 08-03-16 05:22 PM #64
    mohye1980
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Double wager on 2-8 gausman over 12-2 hamels? I'm lost. Gl LT
    Today is the day all trends end lol. Good to know Baltimore ml and ff is cursed.
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  30. 08-03-16 05:32 PM #65
    jeffjam_
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes, percentage of times I beat the closing number (BTCL). As I said though, I am pretty sure the rates are higher in reality. But nonetheless, seeing the similarity between last year and this year is very encouraging.
    Just keep the record and you will be sure. Obviously, being in reds with this high percentage should bring better days. At the same time, +90u last year was an extreme on the other side of the spectre.
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  31. 08-03-16 06:14 PM #66
    JJJ
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    great start
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  32. 08-03-16 06:20 PM #67
    funnyb25
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    Not good
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  33. 08-03-16 06:26 PM #68
    funnyb25
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    Every game going over just like NBA after the break. Time to adjust
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  34. 08-03-16 06:27 PM #69
    intermission
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    Damn im looking at the mlb score board right now...most games have the based loaded..I think everything is going over
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  35. 08-03-16 06:36 PM #70
    CanuckG
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    Good call on TB.
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