[mg63]

http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-...p-polls-2016-7

NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today


If the election were held Monday, Donald Trump would likely win.


That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected on Monday for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight.


In his "Now-cast" election model for who would win if ballots were cast Monday, Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency.


Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls Monday.


Silver's model had Trump winning in the swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire. He would win 285 electoral votes in Silver's model.


It's the first time in Silver's "Now-cast" forecast that Trump has been projected to win.


However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were — hovering around 80%.


Silver raised eyebrows Friday on Twitter when he pointed out "how plausible it is that Trump could become president."


Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now.


— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 23, 2016
Trump has received a bump in the polls since the Republican National Convention in Cleveland wrapped up last week. He jumped ahead of Clinton in a set of new surveys released Monday.


In the RealClearPolitics average of several polls, Trump pulled ahead of Clinton by 0.2 points on the back of four consecutive polls showing him ahead of the former secretary of state. It's the second time in the entire election cycle that Trump has led Clinton in the coveted polling average.

[lakerboy]

+240 to win yesterday now +206.

[BigBusiness]

He'll be 0% when he ends up getting assassinated, unfortunately.

[pavyracer]

Lets cancel the election. Statistics say he won..lol

People are not familiar with the Democrats mobilizing voting machine on election day.

[Itsamazing777]

poor gregets lol

[Kermit]

[d2bets]

I guess there's a reason why the election would not be held immediately following the Republican Convention, and before the Democratic Convention. Hardly surprising that there's a bounce.

Look at the polls mid-August and then again a week after the first debate. Otherwise, ignore.

[BigBusiness]

[pavyracer]

Obama was -130 after RNC in 2008 he closed -350 on election day. People love to lose their money at SBR which is good because this is how SBR can afford the points program.

[eidolon]

Crazy how he has taken the lead:

[stealthyburrito]

Numbers meaningless until we hit debate season

[chico2663]

Lets cancel the election. Statistics say he won..lol

People are not familiar with the Democrats mobilizing voting machine on election day.

is that the one that won bush florida. Or better yet ky. Bevin was down 20% going intot he last week and won going away

[MoneyLineDawg]

Numbers meaningless unless your candidate is in the lead

[chico2663]

Numbers meaningless until we hit debate season

One of my friends talk me into taking angle against reid last primary. She was winning until last minute and then she laughed and it was over. WHo was itthat cackled and went down in blazing defeat.

[stealthyburrito]

Numbers meaningless unless your candidate is in the lead

Nope, still meaningless

[stealthyburrito]

One of my friends talk me into taking angle against reid last primary. She was winning until last minute and then she laughed and it was over. WHo was itthat cackled and went down in blazing defeat.

Are you referring to Howard dean in '04?

[ACoochy]

I guess there's a reason why the election would not be held immediately following the Republican Convention, and before the Democratic Convention. Hardly surprising that there's a bounce.

Look at the polls mid-August and then again a week after the first debate. Otherwise, ignore.

If only there was a way for Trump to not say anything between now and election day then he may just do it.

[hawkwind]

He'll be 0% when he ends up getting assassinated, unfortunately.

you meant she, right, unfortunately

[kidcudi92]

if you think hillary has a chance you are fukkin retard

she has more baggage then fukkin Brock Landers

people are waking up

tired of establishment jerkoffs who have done nothing

[kidcudi92]

He'll be 0% when he ends up getting assassinated, unfortunately.

people said the same thing about obummer

[DigBick86]

world is over if Trump wins

[RudyRuetigger]

Obama was -130 after RNC in 2008 he closed -350 on election day. People love to lose their money at SBR which is good because this is how SBR can afford the points program.

landers says Clinton is a lock

[No coincidences]

I hate both of these scumbags, but let's get real.

1) Hillary will destroy Trump in the debates.
2) No minority, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.
3) No woman, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.

You can't win an election backed by uneducated white males, who don't even actually go to the polls anymore anyway.

I'd like to see how many SBR users are actually registered to vote.

O/U at about 12%.

[jjgold]

Clinton worse than scum

Everyone starting to find out everything about her too

Trump sitting pretty come Nov

[No coincidences]

Clinton worse than scum

Everyone starting to find out everything about her too

Trump sitting pretty come Nov

They're both absolutely pieces of dogshit.

[chico2663]

landers says Clinton is a lock

Well the next time he is right maybe the first. ULTIMATE MUSH!

[chico2663]

people said the same thing about obummer

want to bet 100points

[Waterstpub87]

I hate both of these scumbags, but let's get real.

1) Hillary will destroy Trump in the debates.
2) No minority, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.
3) No woman, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.

You can't win an election backed by uneducated white males, who don't even actually go to the polls anymore anyway.

I'd like to see how many SBR users are actually registered to vote.

O/U at about 12%.

Trump annihilated the republican party in the debates, where as Hillary couldn't win debates against Bernie when he went out his way not to attack her. Hillary herself admits that she is not a good speaker. Debates are not going to help Clinton.

[ACoochy]

Trump annihilated the republican party in the debates, where as Hillary couldn't win debates against Bernie when he went out his way not to attack her. Hillary herself admits that she is not a good speaker. Debates are not going to help Clinton.

Different ball game when you have to appease to others beside your members of your own party...

Listening to Trump try and talk about policy will be priceless

Clown is 98% style and 2% substance...

[No coincidences]

Trump annihilated the republican party in the debates, where as Hillary couldn't win debates against Bernie when he went out his way not to attack her. Hillary herself admits that she is not a good speaker. Debates are not going to help Clinton.

Wow.

[eidolon]

I hate both of these scumbags, but let's get real.

1) Hillary will destroy Trump in the debates.
2) No minority, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.
3) No woman, relatively speaking, will vote for Trump.

You can't win an election backed by uneducated white males, who don't even actually go to the polls anymore anyway.

I'd like to see how many SBR users are actually registered to vote.

O/U at about 12%.

I will have to say I disagree with a lot of what you posted.
Debates; who knows. Probably right; but if Trump leans on his capabilities as an intelligent spokesman, it should be interesting(though no one in the public has seen that side of him in 20 years)
Plenty of minorities and women are voting for Trump; but that is because people don't switch parties. Hillary should get the vast majority of the independent voters.
A lot of people that usually don't vote have been riled up by 8 years under Obama, as well as Trumps speeches.
With all the shots fired against Clinton this early, it is hard to say who will win; it will depend on if the RNC has more bullets in their gun to continue with revealing all the negative attributes of Clinton; they may have already shot their load, and this is it.
I think Clinton will win, because she has so much money backing her its ridiculous.

[d2bets]

For those thinking Trump dominates the debates, keep in mind that it will likely be one-on-one debates. Like Hillary had against Bernie. Trump never had any debates like that. I think the smallest debate was 4-way, if I'm not mistaken. The dynamics in a one-on-one is very very different. Much harder to get away with all platitudes and rhetoric, with an iffy grasp on facts and policy.

[chico2663]

trump will be saying

[kidcudi92]

For those thinking Trump dominates the debates, keep in mind that it will likely be one-on-one debates. Like Hillary had against Bernie. Trump never had any debates like that. I think the smallest debate was 4-way, if I'm not mistaken. The dynamics in a one-on-one is very very different. Much harder to get away with all platitudes and rhetoric, with an iffy grasp on facts and policy.

yeah hillary won't have any trouble cause its 1 on 1

jesus christ

[No coincidences]

Plenty of minorities and women are voting for Trump; but that is because people don't switch parties. Hillary should get the vast majority of the independent voters.

What does that mean? You know a lot of women/minority Republicans these days?

If Hillary does get the vast majority of independent votes, she will win in an absolute landslide.

God help us all with either one of these morons.