1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Sunday, 7/10/16

    4 MLB Plays Sunday

    Reds +152 (Heritage)
    Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
    Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
    Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 254-275-13, -13.94

  2. #2
    LT Profits
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    Boatload of 60%ers:

    Toronto 60% (-150)
    Boston 65% (-186)
    Cubs 62% (-163)
    Baltimore 64% (-178)
    Houston 64% (-178)
    Texas 63% (-170)
    Dodgers 63% (-170)
    Colorado 66% (-194)
    San Francisco 70% (-233)

  3. #3
    eddycash
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    Why reds?

  4. #4
    Brock Landers
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    Broken model still spitting out unders LOL

  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    Why reds?
    Nice edge in starting pitcher.

  6. #6
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    4 MLB Plays Sunday

    Reds +152 (Heritage)
    Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
    Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
    Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 254-275-13, -13.94
    absolute gem. BOL today LT

  7. #7
    trytrytry
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    like houston today various reasons,

    thanks for the thread LT

  8. #8
    mikefan1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by eddycash View Post
    Why reds?
    Why question it just fade it. He's not turning this around

  9. #9
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Don't underestimate LT; baseball-wise, he has a proven track record.

  10. #10
    newbie64
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Nice edge in starting pitcher.
    I don't see it

  11. #11
    vegaschulo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Broken model still spitting out unders LOL
    Lol I got killed by his cubs under pick yesterday..damm and I hate unders

  12. #12
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie64 View Post
    I don't see it
    Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

    Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.

  13. #13
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

    Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.
    all of this equates to o8.5 +100 .. koehler is known to get ripped a new one

  14. #14
    PorkChop
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    Lt - Thoughts on the totals in Arlington and Chicago?

    Very much leaning under on both. Minn/Tex U 10.5 / ATL/CHW U 9.5.

    But probably death wish.

  15. #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Boatload of 60%ers:

    Toronto 60% (-150)
    After taking out Encarnacion and Martin, Toronto drops to 57% (-133), making Detroit just about playable.

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayDr3am View Post
    all of this equates to o8.5 +100 .. koehler is known to get ripped a new one
    But the +152 is better value with the better pitcher.

  17. #17
    newbie64
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Reed is not a superstar or anything like that, he has a 4.24 xFIP. But that is still 5 runs lower than the ridiculous ERA that is skewed by an abnormally high .362 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 54.0% strand rate. The kid is averaging 9.90 strikeouts per nine innings.

    Koehler on the other hand has the sixth worst xFIP in the Major Leagues among qualified staters at 5.06, making him one of only nine regular starters with an xFIP of 5.00 or worse. Of those nine, Koehler has the second best ERA at 4.40, so regression is a bitch.
    Also don't forget Reed is averaging 10.2 runs per 9 innings i just don't see the edge here

  18. #18
    Brock Landers
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    Reds LOL

    Let's pump up a garbage team ON the road with a disgusting pitching staff

  19. #19
    JayDr3am
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    But the +152 is better value with the better pitcher.
    agreed, reed is no gem but i can see him holding up his end of the bargain. BOL

  20. #20
    Brock Landers
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    Who gives a rat's ass about the starters in the Reds game, talk about the bullpen which will get a majority of the work!

  21. #21
    LT Profits
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    4 MLB Additions

    8 MLB Plays Sunday

    Tigers +140 (DSI)
    Reds +152 (Heritage)
    Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
    Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
    Braves +153 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 4.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)

    Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)

  22. #22
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Who gives a rat's ass about the starters in the Reds game, talk about the bullpen which will get a majority of the work!
    I will take my chances with +152 with the better starting pitcher every single time. If starters pitch true to form, lead should be big enough for Cincy pen not to blow it.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie64 View Post
    Also don't forget Reed is averaging 10.2 runs per 9 innings
    What does this even mean? Are you saying he is allowing 10.2 runs per game including unearned runs? If so, that is meaningless for the reasons I already explained. The ridiculous BABIP and strand rate will not continue.

  24. #24
    funnyb25
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    Last day before the break...need that action eh? lol

    GL

  25. #25
    jay89
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    8 MLB Plays Sunday

    Tigers +140 (DSI)
    Reds +152 (Heritage)
    Yankees +128 (Bookmaker)
    Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
    Braves +153 (Heritage)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 8.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Athletics / Astros UNDER 4.5 -110 (5 innings) (Heritage)

    Rockies -1.5 +110 (Heritage)
    Tigers is a good play, with Dickey on the mound and no Edwin or Martin
    On the marlins here...but can't expect bullpen help today (no rodney, no ramos?)
    Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)
    Rays/sox : on the first half over 4.5
    Braves / WS : on both sides over 2 and 3 first half
    Athletics/Astros : on the over for both sides, 1.5 and 2.5 first half
    Phils/Rockies : on the Under 7.5 first half (surprised with this line to be honest)

  26. #26
    newbie64
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    What does this even mean? Are you saying he is allowing 10.2 runs per game including unearned runs? If so, that is meaningless for the reasons I already explained. The ridiculous BABIP and strand rate will not continue.
    I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts

  27. #27
    mikefan1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay89 View Post
    Tigers is a good play, with Dickey on the mound and no Edwin or Martin
    On the marlins here...but can't expect bullpen help today (no rodney, no ramos?)
    Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)
    Rays/sox : on the first half over 4.5
    Braves / WS : on both sides over 2 and 3 first half
    Athletics/Astros : on the over for both sides, 1.5 and 2.5 first half
    Phils/Rockies : on the Under 7.5 first half (surprised with this line to be honest)
    All 3 Yankees aren't available today

  28. #28
    Brock Landers
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    I will take my chances with +152 with the better starting pitcher every single time. If starters pitch true to form, lead should be big enough for Cincy pen not to blow it.
    You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.

  29. #29
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by newbie64 View Post
    I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts
    Here is a tip for all guys too lazy to learn modeling and sabermetrics: The single most important "common" stat in regards to being predictive is strikeout-to-walk ratio. So when you say "I am betting on the teams to score the most runs not on the pitchers who have the most strikeouts", my response is the pitchers with more strikeouts, especially those striking out more than one per inning, tend to allow the fewer runs.

  30. #30
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.
    When you have 2 garbage pitchers why not take the +150 blind? thats prolly what this is..

  31. #31
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay89 View Post

    Yankees-Indians is tough, on the under here for the half (is the Yankees big three available today??)
    Quote Originally Posted by mikefan1034 View Post

    All 3 Yankees aren't available today
    Eovaldi could get a three-inning save if necessary, even if they put him back in the starting rotation thanks to the four-day break.

  32. #32
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    You would not find 2 out of 10 who would say Cincy has the better starting pitcher in this game, your use of "stats" has blinded you.
    And you have no concept of sabermetics and value, just a quick check of FIP and xFIP without digging any deeper should be enough to show Reed is better. Then again, most of the league is better than Koehler (refer to sixth worst xFIP in majors).

  33. #33
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    And you have no concept of sabermetics and value, just a quick check of FIP and xFIP without digging any deeper should be enough to show Reed is better. Then again, most of the league is better than Koehler (refer to sixth worst xFIP in majors).
    Why isnt the OVER a play?

  34. #34
    marley33
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    Well looks like the over is the play then. Light bulb on

  35. #35
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    Why isnt the OVER a play?
    Reed actually grades out above average, model total is only 8.8.

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