1. #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Friday, 6/10/16

    7 MLB Plays Friday

    Phillies / Nationals UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
    Orioles +127 (5 Dimes)
    Athletics / Reds UNDER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Astros -109 (Heritage)
    Astros / Rays UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Indians / Angels UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)
    Dodgers / Giants UNDER 5.5 -110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 175-185-8, -2.88
    Points Awarded:

    JayDr3am gave LT Profits 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    44 Mag
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    Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.

  3. #3
    juicername
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    Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.

  4. #4
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Washington 76% (-317)
    Yankees 63% (-170)
    Cubs 71% (-245)
    White Sox 63% (-170)
    Colorado 62% (-163)
    Arizona 60% (-150)
    Seattle 62% (-163)
    Dodgers 63% (-170)

  5. #5
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.
    Dodgers 63%, Kershaw is rated THAT much better than the rest of the league. Cueto is actually in the top 10 (I think), and Kershaw still towers over him and it does not help that Giants offense is in shambles these days.

  6. #6
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.
    I suppose, it certainly seems likely with these two pitching. What about the bullpens???

  7. #7
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by juicername View Post
    Now you didn't ask me obviously, but isn't +1.5 on SF at -133 pretty tempting? I mean, the total is set at 5.5 so Giants could quite possibly cover with just one or two runs scored.
    Pass for me and I already explained why. Could just as easily be 3-0 or 3-1.

  8. #8
    44 Mag
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    Sortable Pitching
    RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV BLSV WAR WHIP ERA
    1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 12 12 92.2 54 16 15 6 109 8 1 0 0 3.8 0.65 1.46
    2 Jake Arrieta CHC 12 12 80.0 51 17 16 26 87 9 1 0 0 2.8 0.96 1.80
    3 Madison Bumgarner SF 13 13 86.0 67 23 18 25 99 7 2 0 0 2.6 1.07 1.88
    4 Noah Syndergaard NYM 13 12 76.2 65 19 17 12 95 6 2 0 0 3.0 1.00 2.00
    5 Jon Lester CHC 12 12 78.2 59 19 18 17 78 7 3 0 0 2.3 0.97 2.06
    6 Jason Hammel CHC 11 11 63.0 44 16 15 24 56 7 1 0 0 1.9 1.08 2.14
    7 Johnny Cueto SF 12 12 87.2 73 23 21 19 73 9 1 0 0 2.7 1.05 2.16
    8 Danny Salazar CLE 11 11 68.1 44 17 17 33 81 6 3 0 0 3.0 1.13 2.24
    9 Rich Hill OAK 11 11 64.0 48 19 16 24 74 8 3 0 0 2.4 1.13 2.25
    10 Jose Fernandez MIA 12 12 74.2 54 19 19 25 110 9 2 0 0 2.7 1.06 2.29

  9. #9
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Sortable Pitching
    RK PLAYER TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L SV BLSV WAR WHIP ERA
    1 Clayton Kershaw LAD 12 12 92.2 54 16 15 6 109 8 1 0 0 3.8 0.65 1.46
    2 Jake Arrieta CHC 12 12 80.0 51 17 16 26 87 9 1 0 0 2.8 0.96 1.80
    3 Madison Bumgarner SF 13 13 86.0 67 23 18 25 99 7 2 0 0 2.6 1.07 1.88
    4 Noah Syndergaard NYM 13 12 76.2 65 19 17 12 95 6 2 0 0 3.0 1.00 2.00
    5 Jon Lester CHC 12 12 78.2 59 19 18 17 78 7 3 0 0 2.3 0.97 2.06
    6 Jason Hammel CHC 11 11 63.0 44 16 15 24 56 7 1 0 0 1.9 1.08 2.14
    7 Johnny Cueto SF 12 12 87.2 73 23 21 19 73 9 1 0 0 2.7 1.05 2.16
    8 Danny Salazar CLE 11 11 68.1 44 17 17 33 81 6 3 0 0 3.0 1.13 2.24
    9 Rich Hill OAK 11 11 64.0 48 19 16 24 74 8 3 0 0 2.4 1.13 2.25
    10 Jose Fernandez MIA 12 12 74.2 54 19 19 25 110 9 2 0 0 2.7 1.06 2.29
    I have no interest in ERA, Kershaw 2.09 xFIP, Cueto is 15th at 3.43

    There is a lot more to it than that of course, but if you want to choose one stat to rank pitchers by, I prefer xFIP to WAR.

  10. #10
    doubledime
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    I suppose, it certainly seems likely with these two pitching. What about the bullpens???
    LA's bullpen has been used quite a bit the last 3 days and both BP's have approx a 4 ERA each. However, each starter has a 102 and 103 average pitch count respectively, so the BPs should not be that much of a factor, at least "on paper" they shouldn't.

  11. #11
    PorkChop
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    How would you value Oakland/Cincinnati FF U 5 (-110)?

  12. #12
    RavensFan2k3
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    Today, I like Houston

  13. #13
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Today, I like Houston
    Tough game-playing under7- bol raven

  14. #14
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Who do you lean to, LAD or SF ??? Just curious.
    SF +1.5 to tempting

  15. #15
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    Tough game-playing under7- bol raven
    Bol buddy

  16. #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Today, I like Houston
    Good to hear.

  17. #17
    BOA12
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Bol buddy
    thanks. Hoping to hit the Belmont tomorrow owe mag a winner.

  18. #18
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    How would you value Oakland/Cincinnati FF U 5 (-110)?
    Not terrible, I get 4.1. Would still prefer -105 or better though.

  19. #19
    tpark77
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    What do you have on the Mets with Harvey starting to find his groove?

  20. #20
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by tpark77 View Post
    What do you have on the Mets with Harvey starting to find his groove?
    Mets 56% (-127)

  21. #21
    RollinDo
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    Quote Originally Posted by BOA12 View Post
    SF +1.5 to tempting
    I am betting 5% of my BR on SF +2.5
    2.5 Units to win 1

    Cueto being my favorite pitcher to back...MadBum not far behind

  22. #22
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Mets 56% (-127)
    Harvey is still a shell of himself. Slider has a way to go but he is getting his fastball back up in the mid 90s. As a Met fan I'm rooting for him but I just don't see the same guy on the mound anymore.

  23. #23
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by RollinDo View Post
    I am betting 5% of my BR on SF +2.5
    2.5 Units to win 1

    Cueto being my favorite pitcher to back...MadBum not far behind
    You will unhappy if Kershaw wins 3-0.

  24. #24
    Everest
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    Good luck today bud

  25. #25
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Pass for me and I already explained why. Could just as easily be 3-0 or 3-1.
    Just a theory but can't we argue that when Kershaw is pitching we want him to face a pitcher like Cueto do to making the line reasonable. Kershaw is that much better then anyone in baseball. I like the other end here I would take Kershaw all day if I was set on betting the game.

  26. #26
    HeeluvaGuy
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    LT - What do you have for the MIA/ARI total? Roof and panels scheduled to be open tonight with a breeze blowing out (even though the field is enclosed, when the wind blows out with the panels open there's a vacuum effect). Both teams also hit lefties pretty well, and Corbin has been pretty awful at home. Thanks.

  27. #27
    Brock Landers
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    Long Term Profits 😉

  28. #28
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    Just a theory but can't we argue that when Kershaw is pitching we want him to face a pitcher like Cueto do to making the line reasonable. Kershaw is that much better then anyone in baseball. I like the other end here I would take Kershaw all day if I was set on betting the game.
    I do not disagree with you in theory, except in this case the actual line is less than 10% lower than the model's -170. I know the 10% is a very loose rule of thumb, but for higher odds I would want more variance without being extreme. (That is for those that do not mind laying more than -130, which I almost never do).

  29. #29
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    LT - What do you have for the MIA/ARI total? Roof and panels scheduled to be open tonight with a breeze blowing out (even though the field is enclosed, when the wind blows out with the panels open there's a vacuum effect). Both teams also hit lefties pretty well, and Corbin has been pretty awful at home. Thanks.
    Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

    Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.

  30. #30
    inns007
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    What about Cubs vs braves? Would you guys take the Cubs?

  31. #31
    gpet1984
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

    Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.
    Where do you find out if they are goign to open the roof or not and at what time does this release

  32. #32
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes, know all about the effects of open roof at Chase. Just ask Greinke.

    Thing is model has weather-neutral total of just 8.8 here, so passing at 9.5.
    Thanks. I don't have data to back this up, but I go to a lot of games: It's really the open panels that make the ball carry at Chase Field. There really is a vacuum effect created. I've never seen just the panels opened, but I have been there with just the roof (no panels), and the ball carries a little differently with the panels closed.

  33. #33
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Quote Originally Posted by gpet1984 View Post
    Where do you find out if they are goign to open the roof or not and at what time does this release
    Schedule is here: http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/...p?content=roof

    Sometimes there are last minute changes (excess heat, wind, rain), but that's probably 90% accurate. Official team Twitter is also a good source.

  34. #34
    Snake24
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    Your boy for the Rockies is getting a lot of love today, LT. GL this weekend!

  35. #35
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by inns007 View Post
    What about Cubs vs braves? Would you guys take the Cubs?
    Na. WAY too close to model number

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