1. 06-04-16 07:02 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Saturday, 6/4/16

    2 MLB Plays Saturday

    Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)


    YTD: 160-169-7, -1.90
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  2. 06-04-16 07:21 AM #2
    Chi_archie
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    get em
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  3. 06-04-16 08:37 AM #3
    tpark77
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    60% ?
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  4. 06-04-16 08:39 AM #4
    tpark77
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    Couple of aces today...

    What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?
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  5. 06-04-16 08:50 AM #5
    InsideMan
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    Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.
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  6. 06-04-16 09:05 AM #6
    LT Profits
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    Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

    Cubs 66% (-194)
    Washington 68% (-213)
    Dodgers 81% (-426)
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  7. 06-04-16 09:06 AM #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by tpark77 View Post
    Couple of aces today...

    What's model say about kershaw/Dodgers, Strasburg/nationals, and sale/white sox?
    Surprisingly, Sale is "only" 59% (-144)
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  8. 06-04-16 09:15 AM #8
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by InsideMan View Post
    Good morning, LT! Why the Blue Jays against knuckleballer Wright? Do you think the predominantly lateral swing plane (versus high-low) of the contact hitters in the BlueJays lineup can get to the knuckleballer? Moreover, I am not a big fan of Stroman. He has overachieved a lot.
    Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

    I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.
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  9. 06-04-16 09:41 AM #9
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

    Cubs 66% (-194)
    Washington 68% (-213)
    Dodgers 81% (-426)
    Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???
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  10. 06-04-16 09:43 AM #10
    pilebuck13
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    Weather mag.....-426 my god
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  11. 06-04-16 09:45 AM #11
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Weather mag.....-426 my god
    What, they don't get weather reports in Chicago ???? And what does that -426 mean
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  12. 06-04-16 09:50 AM #12
    pilebuck13
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    I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk
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  13. 06-04-16 09:57 AM #13
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44 Mag View Post
    Good Morning LT. why is it everyday, the books hold up the O/U line on the Cubs game, as well as the TT's. They don't get released for hours???? What's up with that???
    Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.
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  14. 06-04-16 10:00 AM #14
    InsideMan
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Wright has overachieved a lot more than Stroman this year given his 4.15 xFIP, his ERA is a mirage. If you want to account for batted balls, even Wright's SIERA is 4.22, so I am not a believer and expect a crash down to earth eventually.

    I get that Stroman was overrated entering the season but he is still above average with a 3.69 FIP, 3.79 xFIP and 3.87 SIERA, all a bit better than his ERA.
    Thank you, LT! Good analysis.
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  15. 06-04-16 10:01 AM #15
    Vinnie Paz
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Three 60%ers and the third one is a doozy:

    Cubs 66% (-194)
    Washington 68% (-213)
    Dodgers 81% (-426)
    DBacks?
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  16. 06-04-16 10:04 AM #16
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    DBacks?
    Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.
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  17. 06-04-16 10:12 AM #17
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    I was referring to kershaw -440 or whatever the hell it is lol.....yah weather wind can change hours before game time there they have always done this idk
    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post

    Wind. Wrigley plays like two different stadiums depending on if wind is blowing in or out, so books do not post overnight totals there. And yes, it has always been that way for as long as I can remember with the possible exception of playoffs games, when books MIGHT have posted overnights but not 100% sure.
    Thanks guys.



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  18. 06-04-16 10:14 AM #18
    Nateboogy
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    Under 8.5 -105?
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  19. 06-04-16 10:17 AM #19
    pilebuck13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yes I know, I may be forced to bet them against my will.
    Pull the trigger T Escobar
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  20. 06-04-16 10:30 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nateboogy View Post
    Under 8.5 -105?
    No, I think 9 is a key number in that game as model has 7.9. I would pass at 8.5 unless you could find a REALLY rogue line of say +110 or more.
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  21. 06-04-16 10:48 AM #21
    El Nino
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    I'd avoid Washington. Thunderstorm looks to be hitting Cincy soon.
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  22. 06-04-16 10:51 AM #22
    hit_me90
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    Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
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  23. 06-04-16 10:56 AM #23
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_me90 View Post
    Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
    Heritage. And if you use Bitcoin, should not be a hassle depositing with/withdrawing from any USA facing book.
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  24. 06-04-16 10:58 AM #24
    jazzyj7
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    Quote Originally Posted by hit_me90 View Post
    Good afternoon LT. Your opinion of the best sports book that allows you to buy runs on totals and no hassles with payouts. I'm in USA. Greatly appreciate your advise
    Heritage allows you to buy up to 4 runs in some cases.
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  25. 06-04-16 11:01 AM #25
    hit_me90
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    Thank you very much. How is withdrawals. Nice and easy ?
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  26. 06-04-16 11:14 AM #26
    LT Profits
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    1 MLB Addition

    3 MLB Plays Saturday

    Diamondbacks +251 (Heritage)
    Blue Jays +114 (Heritage)
    Yankees / Orioles UNDER 9 -115 (Heritage)
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  27. 06-04-16 11:28 AM #27
    pilebuck13
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    Gl my man
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  28. 06-04-16 11:45 AM #28
    Yazworm91
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    Kershaw -2.5 -115. 😂😂. Insane
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  29. 06-04-16 12:02 PM #29
    HeeluvaGuy
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    Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

    Do your numbers like Escobar?
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  30. 06-04-16 12:10 PM #30
    MS Profits
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    Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?
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  31. 06-04-16 12:22 PM #31
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by HeeluvaGuy View Post
    Really surprised about he Arizona pick. Escobar is atrocious as is the DBacks' pen. Add to that the appearance that the players have completely quit on Chip Hale, and I actually took the Cubs -4 at +251. Lol

    Do your numbers like Escobar?
    Look at the 60%ers, I only get Hammel -194. I joked that I was forced to bet Arizona against my will but it is what it is.
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  32. 06-04-16 12:23 PM #32
    cankid
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    GL today thanks for posting
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  33. 06-04-16 12:55 PM #33
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by MS Profits View Post
    Hey LT, Im thinking of taking Colorado TT O 3.5 over Cashner, thoughts?
    Not a fan, I have score of 3.4-3.3
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  34. 06-04-16 01:01 PM #34
    JayDr3am
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    kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT
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  35. 06-04-16 01:05 PM #35
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayDr3am View Post
    kind of worries me you hopped on the dbacks.. but GL today LT
    Its a pure value play, dont read too much into it...his model prolly has the Dbacks losing this game 7/10 times.... but all u would need is 3 out of 10 to make a few bucks
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