1. 05-25-16 06:47 AM #1
    LT Profits
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    MLB - Wednesday, 5/25/16

    2 MLB Plays Wednesday So Far

    Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
    Astros -127 (Heritage)


    YTD: 139-138-6, +9.42

    More Coming, Just getting Money Lines up before 8:00am ET for overnight line purposes.
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  2. 05-25-16 06:58 AM #2
    l7ustin
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    No angels?
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  3. 05-25-16 07:03 AM #3
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    No angels?
    No, line seems right. I get Texas 54% (-117)
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  4. 05-25-16 07:04 AM #4
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    5 MLB Plays

    5 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
    Astros -127 (Heritage)
    Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
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  5. 05-25-16 07:19 AM #5
    LT Profits
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    60%ers:

    Cubs 65% (-186)
    Tampa Bay 62% (-163)
    Boston 63% (-170)
    Seattle 65% (-186)
    Dodgers 63% (-170)
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  6. 05-25-16 07:23 AM #6
    pilebuck13
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    Lt the Cubs line at -161 seems off to me....pretty far off your model as well.cards worth a play at +150...?
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  7. 05-25-16 07:28 AM #7
    l7ustin
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    No, his model says the cubs are worth the play and they should be -186 instead of -161 but LT doesnt play chalky favorites
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  8. 05-25-16 07:28 AM #8
    Rigbone
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    He has the Cubs listed at -186, so +150 on the Cards would not be something to take.
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  9. 05-25-16 07:29 AM #9
    l7ustin
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    how big of a variation do you look for to be consider a play LT? off by a quarter or more or?
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  10. 05-25-16 07:33 AM #10
    pilebuck13
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    No, his model says the cubs are worth the play and they should be -186 instead of -161 but LT doesnt play chalky favorites
    Completely understand.....just scratching my head on the variation
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  11. 05-25-16 08:02 AM #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    how big of a variation do you look for to be consider a play LT? off by a quarter or more or?
    Generally speaking, more than 10%, but that is where I use a lot of judgment despite using a model. In some situations I want a bigger variance while at other times I have made plays just pennies off of model number. But as a general rule of thumb, 10%.
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  12. 05-25-16 08:03 AM #12
    LT Profits
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    Yes, sick RLM in Cubs game against Arrieta.
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  13. 05-25-16 08:04 AM #13
    RavensFan2k3
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    Padres?
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  14. 05-25-16 08:08 AM #14
    l7ustin
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    Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

    Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests
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  15. 05-25-16 08:13 AM #15
    LT Profits
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Padres?
    A little too close for me, Giants 56% (-127)
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  16. 05-25-16 08:17 AM #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

    Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests
    Well I am not afraid to fade anyone if the model variance is big enough, although those are specific cases where I'd want a bigger variance than normal. I even faded Arrieta a few times this year and took a lot of heat for it, but I was getting better than +200 when model had him like in the -170s. But today is the first time this year Arrieta has perceived value according to the model (which probably means he loses ).
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  17. 05-25-16 08:24 AM #17
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

    Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests
    Lol I know a guy, won't say his name tho, but he loves betting against pitchers like that everytime. I see no problem with picking spots, but everytime?? He also bet against the Warriors alot in the beginning of he season and the Panthers(NFL) alot this past season. All for the sole purpose that they can't be perfect forever. Then has the nerve to claim bullshit when he loses. I will never understand.
    Last edited by RavensFan2k3; 05-25-16 at 08:28 AM.
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  18. 05-25-16 08:28 AM #18
    RavensFan2k3
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    LT I appreciate your insight. What do you have Mets, Philly, Arizona(I see you're on them), Cincinatti and Baltimore(just realized you're on Houston) at? Thank you
    Last edited by RavensFan2k3; 05-25-16 at 09:04 AM.
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  19. 05-25-16 09:03 AM #19
    l7ustin
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    What size bets do you use LT? standard 1% per play?
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  20. 05-25-16 09:29 AM #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    What size bets do you use LT? standard 1% per play?
    2.5% of BR 99% of the time.
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  21. 05-25-16 09:31 AM #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    2.5% of BR 99% of the time.
    By the way, that is TO WIN 2.5%, which is another reason I almost never lay more than -130. At -130, the RISK for be 3.25%, which is a little too rich for someone that bets every day.
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  22. 05-25-16 09:36 AM #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    LT I appreciate your insight. What do you have Mets, Philly, Arizona(I see you're on them), Cincinatti and Baltimore(just realized you're on Houston) at? Thank you
    Mets 54% (-117)
    Detroit 52% (-108)
    Arizona 53% (-113)
    Dodgers 63% (-170) - See the 60%ers
    Houston 59% (-144)

    Mets look playable but I don't like the RLM as of now. Will revisit in a bit.
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  23. 05-25-16 09:46 AM #23
    44 Mag
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Padres?
    I took the SD + money. More going against Jake than anything.
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  24. 05-25-16 10:05 AM #24
    stackz125
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    Detriot
    Cubs
    KC

    Morning rush parlay.


    Which one looses
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  25. 05-25-16 10:06 AM #25
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    1 MLB Addition

    6 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mets -111 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
    Astros -127 (Heritage)
    Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
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  26. 05-25-16 10:13 AM #26
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    FYI, model now has Mets 56% (-127) after removing Harper.
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  27. 05-25-16 10:13 AM #27
    Diesel79
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    6 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mets -111 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
    Astros -127 (Heritage)
    Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
    Wow... 3 minutes after your post NYM is -120 or -125 everywhere
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  28. 05-25-16 10:14 AM #28
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Padres?

    Shields lost to San Fran twice already, I'd be surprised if he loses 3 times. But Peavy got shelled his last start, and is pitching to hold his spot in rotation
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  29. 05-25-16 10:19 AM #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diesel79 View Post
    Wow... 3 minutes after your post NYM is -120 or -125 everywhere
    Yeah, I hustled to get bet in as soon as I saw lineups. I would still play up to -122, one of those plays where just a 5-cent variance works for me.
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  30. 05-25-16 10:25 AM #30
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Yeah, I hustled to get bet in as soon as I saw lineups. I would still play up to -122, one of those plays where just a 5-cent variance works for me.
    It's back down to -111. Strange.
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  31. 05-25-16 10:30 AM #31
    iloseagain
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    getting KC at + money against the twins seems like an auto play.. what does model say about this one
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  32. 05-25-16 10:33 AM #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by iloseagain View Post
    getting KC at + money against the twins seems like an auto play.. what does model say about this one
    Believe it or not. Minnesota 55% (-122). More of a reflection of Dillon Gee than anything else.
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  33. 05-25-16 10:45 AM #33
    thebestthereis
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    Quote Originally Posted by l7ustin View Post
    Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

    Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests
    Martinez is 5-0 vs the Cubs when he pitches and getting +160 at home in a day game is worth a shot and hard not to stab at. Just my opinion.
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  34. 05-25-16 10:52 AM #34
    iloseagain
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    Believe it or not. Minnesota 55% (-122). More of a reflection of Dillon Gee than anything else.
    wow... KC will prob smoke them again lol.. no play for me. thanks
    Quote Originally Posted by thebestthereis View Post
    Martinez is 5-0 vs the Cubs when he pitches and getting +160 at home in a day game is worth a shot and hard not to stab at. Just my opinion.
    yea but 5-0 means absolutely nothing. record is the worst stat ever. those 5 starts didnt come against arrieta. in fact, none of them did. they could have came against their 4 and 5 pitchers
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  35. 05-25-16 12:04 PM #35
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    2 MLB 5-Inning Additions

    8 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mets -111 (Heritage)
    Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Indians +105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
    Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
    Diamondbacks +105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
    Astros -127 (Heritage)
    Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)
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